我国中小企业三维差异化特征比较研究

作为推动国民经济增长和促进社会稳定的基础力量,中小企业在市场中扮演着最活跃的经济主体。与大企业相比,中小企业有其鲜明的成长特征,从动态演进视角选取体量规模、生命周期、要素需求三个维度,系统探讨了中小企业的差异化特征。结论显示:体量规模特征反映在个体与群体以及经济板块之间;生命周期特征体现在死亡陷阱和空间格局演变上;要素需求特征会根据阶段创新内容的不同做出适时调整。     

Nowcasting South African gross domestic product using a suite of statistical models

Given lags in the release of data, a central bank must ‘nowcast’ current gross domestic product (GDP) using available quarterly or higher frequency data to understand the current state of economic activity. This paper uses various statistical modelling techniques to draw on a large number of series to nowcast South African GDP. We also show that GDP volatility has increased markedly over the last 5 years, making GDP forecasting more difficult. We show that all the models developed, as well as the Reserve Bank's official forecasts, have tended to overestimate GDP growth over this period. However, several of the statistical nowcasting models we present in this paper provide competitive nowcasts relative to the official Reserve Bank and market analysts' nowcasts.     

Corporate sustainability strategies in institutional adversity: Antecedent,outcome, and contingency effects

This study examines (i) how top-level managerial institutional ties drive corporate sustainability strategies of emerging market firms operating under conditions of institutional adversity; (ii) the impact of corporate sustainability strategies on market performance; and (iii) the moderating role of financial resource slack on the relationships between corporate sustainability strategies and market performance. The study builds from institutional development logic and the structure–conduct–performance paradigm. Primary data are collected from 300 firms operating in a major sub-Saharan African market. Findings show that top-level managerial institutional linkages with regulatory national governmental officials, local community leaders, and top managers at other firms drive corporate proactive and responsive sustainability strategies, which in turn influence market performance. In addition, the findings reveal that financial resource slack strengthens the path between corporate proactive sustainability strategies and market performance, but not the path between corporate responsive sustainability strategies and market performance. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

Optimal allocation of direct and embodied arable land associated to urban economy: Understanding the options deriving from economic globalization

Land resources do not flow directly but can be allocated as “embodied land” in goods and services during economic globalization. The term “embodied arable land” can help link local land allocation strategies to the global and national supply chains and trade activities, and suggest new lens in optimizing arable land allocation. China is facing a serious arable land shortage, especially in municipal administrative areas. Based on the nested input-output analysis (Nested IOA), this work takes Shanghai as an example, exploring the allocation of direct and embodied arable land of an urban economy within the process of economic globalization. The amount of embodied arable land associated with Shanghai economy is 6.09 Mha, broken down into local arable land use (0.20 Mha), domestic inflows (3.20 Mha) and foreign inflows (2.69 Mha). This area supports local final demand (4.32 Mha), domestic outflows (1.24 Mha) and foreign outflows (0.53 Mha). Land-related imbalances emerge in the study, namely the economy’s demand versus the city’s size, the arable land demand versus supply, and embodied arable land inflows versus outflows. Regarding the role of the urban economy in allocation of global arable land under economic globalization, on the one hand, Shanghai has intensively involved with a large amount of embodied foreign arable land resources, and has been heavy dependent on foreign embodied arable land; On the other hand, there is still large potential for Shanghai to take the opportunity of economic globalization for an optimal allocation of direct and embodied arable land. Policy suggestions on taking the opportunity of economic globalization for an optimal allocation of direct and embodied arable land are put forward.     

High-frequency credit spread information and macroeconomic forecast revision

We examine whether professional forecasters incorporate high-frequency information about credit conditions when revising their economic forecasts. Using a mixed data sampling regression approach, we find that daily credit spreads have significant predictive ability for monthly forecast revisions of output growth, at both the aggregate and individual forecast levels. The relationships are shown to be notably strong during ‘bad’ economic conditions, which suggests that forecasters anticipate more pronounced effects of credit tightening during economic downturns, indicating an amplification effect of financial developments on macroeconomic aggregates. The forecasts do not incorporate all financial information received in equal measures, implying the presence of information rigidities in the incorporation of credit spread information.     

Non-stationary additive utility and time consistency

Within a continuous time life cycle model of consumption and savings, I study the properties of the most general class of additive intertemporal utility functionals. They are not necessarily stationary, and do not necessarily multiplicatively separate a discount factor from “per-period utility”. I prove rigorously that time consistency holds if and only if the per-period felicity function is multiplicatively separable in $t$, the date of decision and in $s$, the date of consumption, or equivalently, if the Fisherian instantaneous subjective discount rate does not depend on $t$. The model allows to explain “anomalies in intertemporal choice” even when the agents are time consistent and various empirical regularities. On the other hand, the model allows to characterize mathematically the “effective consumption profile” of naive, time-inconsistent agents.     

京津冀城市大气环境竞争力评价

从大气环境与城市竞争力的关联性入手,将大气环境风险、现状和治理纳入评价指标体系,基于组合权重的大气环境竞争力评价模型,对2013-2017年京津冀13个城市的大气环境竞争力水平进行了测评,并结合空间自相关分析和障碍度模型揭示了其空间效应及障碍因素。结果显示:京津冀城市大气环境竞争力存在明显的空间差异,呈"北部高、南部低、局部跳跃"格局,城市差距逐渐缩小;京津冀城市大气环境竞争力呈显著的空间集聚效应且存在正向相关性,空间分布格局相对稳定。     

中国住宿和餐饮业在产业链上位置测度及其动态变迁

文章运用产业上游度测度模型，测度了我国住宿和餐饮业在产业链上位置，考察了其在产业链上位置的动态变迁。总体来讲，住宿和餐饮业在全球产业链上和国内产业链上的位置都向产业链上游移动。从封闭经济到开放经济，住宿和餐饮业的产业上游度存在着较大波动，2002—2010年全球产业上游度都大于其国内产业上游度；2012—2017年则相反，住宿和餐饮业国内产业上游度波动幅度要大于其全球产业上游度波动幅度。住宿和餐饮业净出口变化方向与其国外产业上游度变化方向基本相同，净出口增加对其国外产业上游度上升有促进作用。住宿和餐饮业全球产业上游度变化趋势与其国内产业上游度变化趋势基本相似。总体来讲，现阶段住宿和餐饮业国内产业上游度增长速度要大于其全球产业上游度增长速度。     

技术创业型企业孵化资本投入的风险管控——来自多案例对比

待孵化的技术创业型企业同时具有概念性技术向差异化产品转化的高风险与产品异质性被认同后溢价评估的高收益特点，导致其投资者多处于隔岸观火却欲罢不能的的孵化投资矛盾中。对孵化资本实施有效的风险管控，成为吸引外部资本投入的关键。基于此，选择在可创概念选育与技术创业孵化领域探索出高成功率路径的概念证明中心、YCombinator和创新工场为研究案例，分析其在创业项目筛选、孵化资金运营等关键环节的风险管控方式，以期完善我国孵化资本管控理论、助力我国商业孵化器提高资金风险管控能力、促进外部资本投入。