经济开放的区域差异及其增长绩效:1985-2008

以我国30个省(市区)为横截单元,以1985-2008年的时序数据组成综列数据,研究我国开放经济体系的区域差异,并研究经济开放与区域经济增长的关联特征。研究发现:(1)改革开放30年来,对外经济联系有力地促进了区域经济增长,但经济增长高度依赖投入增长的格局没有发生根本性改变;(2)与东部沿海地区相比,贸易开放度对中西部地区影响甚微,同时贸易与资本和劳动要素使用效率之间关系不显著,这与我国加工贸易型经济体系的区域分布是一致的;(3)政府过度参与经济牵制了区域经济增长,但比较而言,开放度较高时这一效应会减弱。     

The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis and the Role of External and Internal Factors in Emerging Economies

This article assesses the impact of trade, capital openness and institutions on emerging economies’ output loss during the “Great Recession.” The fixed-effect estimates of an unbalanced panel of 122 emerging countries observed from 2008 to 2010 yield three main results. First, trade openness has exacerbated output loss. Second, capital openness can help mitigate the negative impact of an external shock, but this is conditional on the level of financial development. Finally, the results also point out that the interrelations between financial and institutional development affect the crisis’s severity.     

OFDI逆向技术溢出对地区技术创新的影响——基于基础吸收能力的调节作用

利用2002—2012年中国省际面板数据,通过对基于基础吸收能力调节的OFDI逆向技术溢出对以专利授权数量表示的技术创新影响的研究得到如下结论：加入经济发展水平、金融发展水平与基础设施建设水平各个指标的调节变量后,东部、中部和西部地区的OFDI逆向技术溢出效应对技术创新能力均产生了正面效应,但是与R&D经费投入和科研人员数量相比,这一促进效应依然较小;基础吸收能力调节变量的加入正向调节了OFDI逆向技术溢出对技术创新的影响;相对来说,基础吸收能力对西部地区OFDI逆向溢出与创新能力之间关系的调节效应更为重要。     

Trade Openness and Exchange Rate Regimes

The paper evaluates the net welfare gains of inflation targeting over a fixed exchange rate as a function of a country's trade openness, using a multisectoral structural model calibrated to Chile. For most calibrations with separable preferences, net welfare gains are increasing in trade openness. The reason is that in more open economies terms of trade shocks, which favor inflation targeting, become quantitatively more important, while price markup shocks in the imperfectly competitive nontradables sector, which favor exchange rate targeting, become less important. The most important exception is heavily indebted countries, where net welfare gains are decreasing in trade openness.     

中国集体林产权制度改革回顾与展望

采用历史产权制度研究方法,利用详实的历史数据与信息,系统地分析改革开放以来中国集体林产权制度改革每个重要时期的改革内容与进程以及集体林地林木流转制度演化历程,发现改革开放四十年中国集体林所有权和家庭经营的基因没有变,变的是集体林地承包经营权的实现形式;指出集体林产权制度变迁道路中的困惑;提出未来集体林产权制度的选择路径。     

“丝绸之路经济带”建设中新疆对外开放与经济发展的关系研究

在共建“丝绸之路经济带”的战略提出后,新疆经济开放度及其对经济发展的贡献程度的研究,对于我国向西开放及把新疆建设成为“丝绸之路经济带”的核心区具有重要的意义。从直观数据上看,经济开放促进了新疆经济的快速发展,但实际上,并没有体现出两者的数量关系和因果关系。因此,文章将对新疆国内生产总值与各经济开放度指标进行实证分析,通过计量模型来判断经济开放度与经济发展的关系,并提出相应的对策建议。     

中国资本账户开放程度的测算

对我国资本账户开放程度的准确判断是相关理论研究和决策分析的基本前提。从名义和实际两个方面对中国的资本账户开放程度进行测度的结果表明:(1)当前我国的名义资本管制处于中等水平,而实际资本账户的开放水平要远高于名义资本账户开放水平;(2)在存在较大套利空间的情况下,即便存在较为严格的资本管制,资本管制的有效性也很难长期维持;(3)虽然资本管制程度的加强很难对实际的套利资本流动加以控制,但在资本管制措施逐渐放松以后,却很容易导致实际资本流动性的急剧提高,这一点,造成了我国当前资本管制政策的"两难"选择。     

Trade intensity,country size and corruption

Abstract. Several authors claim to provide evidence that governmental corruption is less severe in countries where trade intensity is higher or populations are smaller. We argue that theory is highly ambiguous on these questions, and demonstrate that empirical links between corruption and trade intensity – or country size, strongly related to trade intensity – are sensitive to sample selection bias. Most available corruption indicators provide ratings only for those countries in which multinational investors have the greatest interest: these tend to include almost all large nations, but among small nations only those that are well-governed. We find that the relationship between corruption and trade intensity disappears, using newer corruption indicators with substantially increased country coverage. Similarly, the relationship between corruption and country size weakens or disappears using samples less subject to selection bias. Received: July 2001 / accepted: April 2002 We thank Anand Swamy and two anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions, Paul Schorosch for able research assistance, and Ray Fisman, Roberta Gatti, Aart Kraay, and Shang-jin Wei for kindly providing data. The conclusions of this paper are not intended to represent the views of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent.