Determining the integrated volatility via limit order books with multiple records

The integrated volatility plays an important role in risk management and portfolio selection, the estimation methods regarding the quantity have been widely investigated, either under low-frequency data or high-frequency data, or a combination of both. In this paper, we propose a measure for the integrated volatility via limit order book data with possible presence of multiple records. The estimator is valid under mild conditions and it is easily implemented. The finite sample performance of the proposed estimator has been verified by simulation studies and we apply the method to some real high-frequency data-sets as well.     

How risky is a random process?

The riskiness of random processes is compared by (a) employing a decision theoretic equivalence between processes and lotteries on path-spaces to identify the riskiness of the former with that of the latter, and (b) using the theory of comparative riskiness of lotteries over vector spaces to compare the riskiness of lotteries on a given path-space. We derive the equivalence used in step (a) and contribute a new criterion to the theory applied in step (b). The validity of the new criterion, which applies second order stochastic dominance to utility distributions, is established by showing its equivalence to the benchmark decision theoretic criterion when comparing the riskiness of lotteries over any vector space. We demonstrate the theory’s tractability via diverse economic applications.     

General convex order on risk aggregation

Using a general notion of convex order, we derive general lower bounds for risk measures of aggregated positions under dependence uncertainty, and this in arbitrary dimensions and for heterogeneous models. We also prove sharpness of the bounds obtained when each marginal distribution has a decreasing density. The main result answers a long-standing open question and yields an insight in optimal dependence structures. A numerical algorithm provides bounds for quantities of interest in risk management. Furthermore, our numerical results suggest that the bounds obtained in this paper are generally sharp for a broader class of models.     

OUTPUT FLUCTUATIONS PERSISTENCE: DO CYCLICAL SHOCKS MATTER?

The aim of this paper is to identify the different sources of persistence of output fluctuations. We propose an unobserved components model that allows us to decompose GDP series into a trend component and a cyclical component. We let the drift of the trend component switch between different regimes according to a first‐order Markov process. To calculate an appropriate p‐value for a test of linearity we propose a bootstrap procedure, which allows for general forms of heteroscedasticity. The performance of the bootstrap is checked by means of a Monte Carlo simulation. Our study concerns the USA. We find that cyclical shocks appear to play an important role on the observed persistence of output.     

Variation diminishing property of densities of uniform generalized order statistics

Let f _*,r , r ≥ 1, denote the density function of rth uniform generalized order statistics as defined by Kamps (1995) or Cramer and Kamps (2003). We prove the following variation diminishing property: the number of zeros in (0,1) of any linear combination order="0"> does not exceed the number of sign changes in the sequence (a ₁, . . . ,a _r ). This result is applied to study monotonicity and convexity properties of f _*,r .     

The Costs of Increasing Transparency

In their seminal paper, Morris and Shin (Amer Econ Rev 92(5): 1521–1534, 2002a) argued that increasing the precision of public information is not always beneficial to social welfare. Svensson (Amer Econ Rev 96: 448–451, 2006) however has disputed this by saying that although feasible, the conditions for which this was true, were not all that likely. In that respect, therefore, increasing ‘transparency’ remains most of the times beneficial to social welfare. In this paper, we extend the Morris and Shin attempt by setting it up as an explicit interactive game between the Central Bank, the objectives of which we model explicitly, and the private sector. We show that in the absence of costs, both players benefit from transparency in the manner described previously in the literature, and point the differences in their gains. Following that, we then introduce the fact that increasing transparency comes at some costs and show how both players face incentives to free ride on each other as a result. The presence of costs thus alters the way in which greater transparency is attained.

“限塑令”前后北京大兴城区居民环保意识变化分析

通过问卷调查方式对北京市大兴城区居民在限塑令实施前后环保意识变化进行调查研究,并运用Excel软件进行数据统计分析,了解限塑令的实施对北京市大兴城区居民的影响和意义,并提出相关建议以促使限塑令实施更加有效。     

生态经济政策问题探源研究

环境经济快速发展的迅猛态势所付出的代价令人担忧。如果环境经济政策是为环境问题量身定做的,那么环境恶化的不可逆转又从何而来?研究环境经济政策的针对性和科学性存在的问题,首先提出了生态经济政策源头存在的问题,接着从政策的针对性和科学性方面指出生态经济政策问题的理论缺陷,继而通过制度经济以及制度与行为经济的理论对生态经济政策进行探源研究,对现有生态经济政策探源研究进行补充,最后提出国外可借鉴条款。为生态经济政策经济化研究提供方向,提供改善政策效率的契机。     

汉译佛经叙事时序分析

在汉译佛经叙事中,叙述者为了使受众能更好地皈依佛教,在使用顺叙之外,多采用预叙、插叙、倒叙等其他打破时间的矢量流程的叙事时序,形成了佛经叙事变幻多姿的叙事特色。这些手段的运用,强化了佛经叙事的的虚构性。     

关于社会治安综合治理问题的探讨

针对当前一些矛盾纠纷及社会问题呈现新特点的形势,研究如何在新时期适应新形势和新任务的要求。认为应高度重视社会治安综合治理工作,综合运用政策、法律、经济、行政等手段和教育、协商、调解等方法,依法及时合理地处理群众面临的问题,不断增强人民群众的安全感和信任感。