基于现有法律框架下建设工程监理安全责任对策

根据现有法律法规,归纳了建设工程监理安全责任的法律规定,对安全责任性质进行分析,指出现有法律法规的协调性、安全监理的深度、安全审查、监理费用等方面存在的问题,并从国家宏观管理和监理单位微观对策方面提出建议。     

关于领导干部学习问题的思考

党的十七届六中全会指出:当今世界正处在大发展、大变革、大调整时期,文化在综合国力竞争中的地位和作用更加凸显。在我国进入全面建设小康社会、改革开放不断深化、经济发展方式转变加快的关键和攻坚阶段,推进文化的大发展、大繁荣已经成为当前我国一个重要而艰巨的任务。领导干部通过学习不断提升文化水平和能力显得极其重要。文章针对与领导干部学习相关的问题展开深入思考,提出了端正学习态度,深入学习,强调技巧,注重效果等管见。     

Do stock market returns predict changes to output? Evidence from a nonlinear panel data model

Recent empirical work suggests a predictive relationship between stock returns and output growth. We employ quarterly data from a panel of 27 countries to test whether stock returns as useful in predicting growth. Unlike previous research, our approach allows for the possible non-linear effect of recessions on the growth-return relationship. There is strong evidence to suggest that a linear model would be misspecified and provide potentially misleading inference. Using a switching regression approach, we find evidence that returns are most useful in predicting growth when the economy is in recession.First version received: November 2002/Final version received: April 2003This paper benefited greatly from discussions with Kalvinder Shields, Mark Harris, Pete Summers, and Vance Martin. Two anonymous referees provided useful comments on an earlier version of the paper for which we are grateful. The usual disclaimer applies to any errors and omissions. Funding from The University of Melbourne greatly assisted in the completion of this paper.     

聚丙烯纤维对混凝土抗氯离子渗透性的研究

试验表明,聚丙烯纤维能够增加低强度混凝土和低流动性混凝土的抗氯离子性能,但同时会降低高强度混凝土的抗氯离子渗透性能和大流动性混凝土的抗氯离子性能,文章分析了其作用机理。     

Outreach and performance of microfinance institutions: a panel analysis

Using a panel of 764 microfinance institutions (MFIs) from 87 countries, this study analyses the possible trade-off between outreach and performance and shows that greater depth of outreach has a positive impact on the financial performance of an MFI. The empirical results of this study should dispel the widely held apprehension that the recent emphasis on attainment of financial sustainability by the MFIs could seriously impair their outreach efforts and shows that outreach to the poor can actually bolster financial performance.     

Credit growth,current account and financial depth

Exploring the determinants and dynamics of the current account balance is one of the priorities of academic literature and policy circles. Although the effects of structural variables are deeply analysed, a lesser attention has been paid to the impact of financial variables. Drawing on standard empirical current account models and with a large sample of industrial and developing countries, we report a significant deterioration in the current account balance in case of an increase in the credit growth. Moreover, we find that this link is substantially stronger for the developing ones motivating a closer examination. Therefore, we further advance our analysis and show that credit growth causes a stronger impact on the current account balance for lower levels of financial depth. In other words, at the early stages of financial development, acceleration in the credit growth might cause a larger deterioration in the current account balance; thus, it might be suggested that monetary policy and macro-prudential measures aimed at preventing financial excess might be more effective to reduce the external imbalances at the early stages of financial deepening.     

Interest rate reforms,financial deepening and economic growth in Tanzania: a dynamic linkage

In this paper we examine the dynamic relationship between interest rate reforms and economic growth in Tanzania using two tests. In the first test, we examine the impact of interest rate reforms on financial deepening using a financial deepening model. In the second test, we examine whether the financial deepening, which results from interest rate reforms, Granger‐causes economic growth – using a trivariate model. The empirical findings of our results reveal that there is a significant positive relationship between interest rate reforms and economic growth in Tanzania. However, the results fail to find any support for finance‐led growth.     

ICT as a source of economic growth in the information age: Empirical evidence from the 1996-2005 period

This paper examines the hypothesis that ICT penetration has positive effects on economic growth. On theoretical grounds, this paper discusses three channels through which ICT penetration can affect growth: (i) fostering technology diffusion and innovation; (ii) enhancing the quality of decision-making by firms and households; and (iii) increasing demand and reducing production costs, which together raises the output level. This paper conducts three empirical exercises to provide a comprehensive documentation of the role of ICT as a source of growth in the 1996-2005 period. The first exercise shows that growth in 1996-2005 improved relative to the previous two decades and experienced a very significant structural change. The second exercise uses the traditional cross-country regression method to identify a strong association between ICT penetration and growth during 1996-2005, controlling for other potential growth drivers and country-fixed effects. The third exercise uses the system Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) for dynamic panel data analysis to tease out the causal link between ICT penetration and growth. This analysis also shows that, for the average country, the marginal effect of the penetration of internet users was larger than that of mobile phones, which in turn is larger than that of personal computers. The marginal effect of ICT penetration, however, lessens as the penetration increases. This paper points out several policy implications drawn from its analyses and findings.     

一项二语词汇深度知识学习策略的调查

为探讨学习者的学习观念和所采用的学习策略的关系,通过对125名三个不同水平受试者的问卷调查,结果表明:(1)学习者都认为单词需要在用中学,并且能对自己的学习进行有效的管理。(2)不同学历层次学生在策略的使用上也存在着显著的差异。(3)英语专业二年级和四年级的学习者在策略的使用上并没有显著性差异。     

公共行政变迁背景下民法理念在行政法领域的渗透与融合

公共行政体制和过程的缺点在历史发展中逐步暴露出来,从而引发种种公共行政危机的讨论。如何保障行政机关对社会的有效管理,并有效控制行政权,防止其对公民权益造成损害成为一大研究课题。民法理念对行政法领域的渗透与融合,弥补了传统行政法的缺陷。