我国农村社会养老保险覆盖率的实证考察与政策建议

基于2003年～2010年相关数据,运用社会养老保险制度覆盖率计算公式,对农村社会养老保险覆盖率从纵向和横向(城乡差异)进行实证比较分析,指出制度模式、农民的收入水平、制度保障水平、城镇社会养老保险的历史债务以及社会养老保险关系转移的便捷性等问题是造成"新农保"覆盖率较低的重要原因,并从加快制度推进、提供多种制度模式、增加农民收入、提高制度保障水平以及以家庭为参保单位等方面,提出了政策建议。     

中国养老保险统筹账户的财务可持续性研究——基于开放系统的测算

文章运用精算估计方法,预测分析了我国城镇职工养老保险统筹账户的财务状况和财务可持续性。研究结果表明,年度支付危机会在2018-2036年之间出现,2023-2050年内源性基金累积不足值得格外关注。从长期看,如果没有外源性融资,仅靠制度本身的资金支持,统筹账户的财务可持续性难以为继。现阶段政府关注的重点应是如何扩大养老保险收入来源和完善养老保险的制度设计。     

新生代农民工参与养老保险约束条件及路径设计

新生代农民工作为一个庞大的社会群体进入城市,推动着中国工业化、城市化进程加快,他们有着强烈的市民化需求却因养老保险的缺失而严重受阻,不但有损新生代农民工切身利益,也不利于和谐社会构建。基于新生代农民工养老保险构建过程中所面临的各种约束,应以新生代农民工可持续就业为核心、以政府为主导、以土地流转为途径、以自身保障意识为前提的发展模式,确保新生代农民工养老效益得到有效保障。     

Developing an integrated approach for the strategic monitoring of regional spatial plans

Monitoring is a challenging and fundamental issue within planning processes, yet there is little understanding as to whether plans achieved their goals in guaranteeing sustainable development on a territorial level. Follow-up of spatial planning is rather difficult due to insufficient methodologies, deficiencies in plans’ contents and resource limitations. The main goal of this research is to develop and test a conceptual framework to support the development of effective indicator based regional spatial plans’ (RSPs) monitoring systems. The conceptual framework includes indicators with distinct purposes and has the following features: (i) it establishes links between RSPs, their strategic environmental assessment and monitoring indicators; (ii) it incorporates the contribution of other existing monitoring systems in the regions; and (iii) it defines specific indicator selection criteria. In order to inform the development of the conceptual framework we: (i) review international practice of RSP monitoring; (ii) analyse the features of current Portuguese RSPs; (iii) test the conceptual framework using the RSP and the regional sustainability indicator system of the Algarve region (Portugal) as a case study. Two types of indicators were developed - output/implementation and results/effects - for improving the identification of cause-effect relationships between RSP implementation and associated territorial effects; although this is a continuing challenge, given the strategic nature of RSPs. The usefulness of the conceptual framework was demonstrated in the definition of monitoring indicators for the Algarve's RSP, as well as in the integration of an existing regional sustainability monitoring system.     

家庭养老是现阶段农村养老保障制度的主体

农村养老问题已经成为重要的社会问题,不少人士认为,通过建立农村社会养老保险制度可以解决农民的养老问题,这种观点尤其在新农保制度开始启动后得到了支持。文章通过从农村家庭养老的历史变迁、农村家庭养老存在的社会文化和经济基础及新农保制度设计等方面进行分析,认为家庭养老仍是现阶段农村养老保障制度的主体,并提出构建农村养老保障体系、发挥基层组织作用、完善农村家庭养老法律制度和加快农村经济发展等完善家庭养老的对策。     

入住养老机构的老年人对医疗服务的评价及影响因素分析

从"局内人"的视角,探讨入住养老机构的老年人对其提供的医疗服务的评价及其影响因素。选择山东省入住养老机构的老年人为总体,采取分层,对公立和私营的养老机构进行两阶段PPS抽样,获得入住养老机构老年人调查数据,通过对他们就医地点选择、就医满意度与人口社会经济变量的统计分析,并结合非参与式观察及半结构式访谈,对问题进行讨论。老年人的教育程度、从事过的职业和婚姻状况对其就医地点选择存在显著差异;而入住养老机构时间、家庭经济条件影响到其在机构内的就医满意度。在医疗条件既定的情况下,影响就医地点选择性和就医满意评价的决定因素是老人的社会经济地位。     

养老金制度变迁中的路径依赖及其锁定效应

养老金制度变迁过程中存在着显著的路径依赖及其“锁定效应”。由于路径依赖,养老金制度的变迁明显地依赖于先前拥有的模式,这使得新制度被锁定在低效率的均衡状态。由于存在利益集团和寻租,在现有结构下,既得利益集团有动机也有能力去阻碍制度朝高效率的方向演进。     

Iterated VaR or CTE measures: A false good idea?

The purpose of this paper is twofold. Firstly, we consider different risk measures in order to determine the solvency capital requirement of a pension fund. Secondly, we illustrate the impact of the time horizon of long-term guarantee products on these capital. We consider a financial market modelled by a common Black–Scholes–Merton model. We neglect the mortality and underwriting risks by assuming that the pension fund is fully hedged against these risks, which allows us to keep understandable and tractable formulæ (the longevity risk will be a part of future researches). A portfolio is built in this market according to different strategies and the pension fund offers a fixed guaranteed rate on a certain time horizon. We begin with well-known static risk measures (value at risk and conditional tail expectation measures) and then we consider their natural dynamic generalization. In order to be time consistent, we consider their iterated versions by a backward iterations scheme. Within the dynamic setting, we show that solvency capital can be expensive and that attention must be paid to the safety level considered.     

Do Managers of U.S. Defined Benefit Pension Plan Sponsors Use Regulatory Freedom Strategically?

We use historical particularities of pension funding law to investigate whether managers of U.S. corporate defined benefit pension plan sponsors strategically use regulatory freedom to lower the reported value of pension liabilities, and hence required cash contributions. For some years, pension plans were required to estimate two liabilities—one with mandated discount rates and mortality assumptions, and another where these could be chosen freely. Using a sample of 11,963 plans, we find that the regulated liability exceeds the unregulated measure by 10% and the difference further increases for underfunded pension plans. Underfunded plans tend to assume substantially higher discount rates and lower life expectancy. The effect persists both in the cross‐section of plans and over time and it serves to reduce cash contributions. We further show that plan sponsor managers use the freed‐up cash for corporate investment and that credit risk is unlikely to explain the finding.     

Mainstreaming sustainable adaptation to climate change into municipal planning: An analysis from the Eastern Cape,South Africa

Municipalities are well positioned to support adaptation of vulnerable people to climate change; however, they seldom integrate climate change into their planning for social development. The building of adaptive capacity for sustainable adaptation requires that municipalities understand and mainstream climate change into their plans, and develop context-specific adaptation strategies that address existing social development issues. A desktop analysis was conducted to compare the planning landscape in six District Municipalities in the Eastern Cape, South Africa, focusing on Municipal Integrated Development Plans (IDPs). A scoring system was developed for comparing the IDPs of the municipalities, based on levels of context-specific information about climate change, mainstreaming of climate change with other development concerns, and vertical integration across district and local municipalities, amongst other themes. Overall, the mainstreaming of climate change in municipal IDPs in the Eastern Cape remains weak, and requires critical attention if sustainable adaptation is to be achieved.