发展我国农村社会养老保险制度的几点思考

长期以来,我国城乡养老社会保障呈现了明显的二元化特征.笔者认为,应该从我国家庭户规模的变化、未来人口发展趋势、经济体制改革以及非经济因素等方面来全面考虑发展农村养老社会保险制度的意义、面临的挑战及改革思路.要根据各地经济发展水平不同建立分地区、分层次的农村养老社会保障制度,必须尽快将农村养老社会保障制度建设纳入法制化轨道,并且应推广发达地区的成功经验,继续进行试点工作.     

Pension fund manager skills over the economic cycle: the (non-)specialization cost

We study whether pension fund managers, as professionals of important social and financial products, are able to add value for their clients and adapt to economic changes. To this end, we analyze the performance and skills (market timing and stock picking) over the economic cycle from both pension fund and manager perspectives. This double analysis allows examining whether skills reside in managers and/or funds and control for manager substitutions. Despite the long-term nature of pension funds, we find that both fund and manager skills vary with market conditions, showing better evidence of stock-picking in booms, and of market timing in recessions. Nonetheless, top (bottom) funds and managers exhibit both (incorrect) skills in booms and in recessions. Some of the top (bottom) funds and managers are the best (worst) in both abilities in the same periods, but not in different periods, showing that not all managers have the ability to adapt to market conditions. Additionally, managers with limited skills tend to specialize because diversification requires multi-task skills and the non-specialization of these managers usually results in incorrect skills.     

Crowdfunding: The collaborative economy for channelling institutional and household savings

The financial disintermediation mechanism known as “loan-based-crowdfunding” has recently come under regulation in several countries. This competitive investment and finance vehicle is already well established in the US and British markets.By compiling empirical data from a reference crowdfunding platform, this article compares loan-based crowdfunding with traditional investment vehicles such as investment funds, equities or pension funds.The conclusion of the study is that saving through crowdfunding allows the optimization of a portfolio comprising both institutional and retail investors.     

Using principles of justice to assess the modal equity of regional transportation plans

While equity has been an important consideration for transportation planning agencies in the U.S. following the passage of Civil Rights Act of 1964 (Title VI specifically) and the subsequent Department of Transportation directives, there is little guidance on how to assess the distribution of benefits generated by transport investment programs. As a result, the distribution of these benefits has received relatively little attention in transportation planning, compared to transport-related burdens. Drawing on philosophies of social justice, we present an equity assessment of the distribution of accessibility in order to define the rate of “access poverty” among the population. We then apply this analysis to regional transportation plan scenarios from the San Francisco Bay Area, focusing on measures of differences between public transit and automobile access. The analysis shows that virtually all neighborhoods suffer from substantial gaps between car and public transport-based accessibility, but that the two proposed transportation investment programs reduce access poverty compared to the “no project” scenario. We also investigate how access and access poverty rates vary by demographic groups and map low-income communities within access impoverished areas, which could be the subject of further focused investments.     

Hiring Older Employees: Do the Age Limits of Early Retirement and the Contribution Rates of Firms Matter?

We examine the effects of a Finnish pension reform on firms' incentives to hire older employees. The reform restricted the eligibility ages for early retirement and changed the size‐related contribution rates of firms. According to our theoretical model, the positive effect on the values of new hires extends to age groups younger than those directly affected by the reform, and the effects are strongest in the largest firms. These model predictions were confirmed in a difference‐in‐difference‐in‐differences analysis on the probability of the hiring of workers of different ages in firms of different sizes.     

Personalized goal-based investing via multi-stage stochastic goal programming

In this paper, we propose a goal-based investment model that is suitable for personalized wealth management. The model only requires a few intuitive inputs such as size of wealth, investment amount, and consumption goals from individual investors. In particular, a priority level can be assigned to each consumption goal and the model provides a holistic solution based on a sequential approach starting with the highest priority. This allows strict prioritization by maximizing the probability of achieving higher priority goals that are not affected by goals with lower priorities. Furthermore, the proposed model is formulated as a linear program that efficiently finds the optimal financial plan. With its simplicity, flexibility, and computational efficiency, the proposed goal-based investment model provides a new framework for automated investment management services.     

供给侧改革视角下的养老旅游产业发展研究--以广东省阳江市为例

供给侧结构性改革作为适应和引领经济发展新常态的重大创新,用改革的办法对错配的供需结构和扭曲的要素配置进行矫正,根据需求结构变化及时优化供给结构,实现资源优化配置和经济长期均衡发展。阳江作为滨海旅游城市,应抓住机遇,深化养老旅游产业供给侧结构性改革,优化养老旅游产业的供给结构,合理配置养老旅游资源,扩大养老旅游服务的有效供给,推进养老旅游产业的持续健康发展。     

Pension plan solvency and extreme market movements: a regime switching approach

We develop and test a new approach to assess defined benefit (DB) pension plan solvency risk in the presence of extreme market movements. Our method captures both the ‘fat-tailed’ nature of asset returns and their correlation with discount rate changes. We show that the standard assumption of constant discount rates leads to dramatic underestimation of future projections of pension plan solvency risk. Failing to incorporate leptokurtosis into asset returns also leads to downward biased estimates of risk, but this is less pronounced than the time-varying discount rate effect. Further modifying the model to capture the correlation between asset returns and the discount rate provides additional improvements in the projection of future pension plan solvency. This reduces the perceived future risk of underfunding because of the negative correlation between interest rate changes and asset returns. These results have important implications for those with responsibility for balancing risk against expected return when seeking to improve the current poor funding positions of DB pension schemes.     

To defer or not defer? UK state pension and work decisions in a lifecycle model

The UK state pension (which depends only on age) includes an option to defer take up which yields either a subsequent lump sum or higher weekly pension. We analyse the joint decisions on pension deferral and intertemporal labour supply/participation in a lifecycle setting. We show that deferral is purely a financial decision, but the impact of deferral on work decisions depends on preferences, wage rates, non-labour income and initial wealth. To exactly characterize this, we use a quasilinear utility function and provide calibrated simulations. We also discuss the choice between a lump sum or increased weekly pension.     

养老建筑室内建筑环境的构建——以某市社会养老服务中心为例

养老地产在我国是一项新兴产业,作为该类建筑中的一个重要组成部分——供暖、通风与空气调节工程,其设计合理与否,对于居住环境和老年人身体健康的影响至关重要。设计人员为了力求打造一个更为适合老年人居住的建筑环境,结合具体工程,做了较为细致的探讨。文章对工程设计方案,包括采暖、空调方式,室内空气质量的控制,气流组织,工程材料选择,振动噪声控制,共五大方面,逐一作了介绍。