基于灰色残差模型的中国税收收入预测

税收是国家财政收入的重要来源,准确的税收预测结果对于制定各项经济政策具有非常重要的意义。为提高中国税收收入的预测精度,适应资源配置、收入再分配和宏观经济调控的需求,在传统灰色预测技术的基础上,建立了残差灰色预测模型,并通过实例分析验证了该模型的实用性和精确性。     

石家庄市农药行业现状和发展对策

通过对石家庄市农药企业现状调查研究,并结合国内国际的农药行业的现状及发展趋势,有针对性的提出了在环境危机下石家庄市实施产业结构调整、建立研发中心、促进企业合作升级、组建农药三废处理和包装回收中心系统等一系列具体措施,真正实现石家庄市农药行业的可持续发展。     

Some Properties of Past Entropy and their Applications

In the context of information theory, measure of uncertainty in past lifetime distribution has been proposed by Di Crescenzo and Longobardi (J Appl Probab 39:434–440, 2002). In this paper, we study some ordering and aging properties in terms of past entropy (based on past lifetime) and develop some characterization results. Some discrete distribution results are also addressed here.     

农药残留限量标准对福建茶叶出口影响的实证分析

近年来,福建茶叶市场持续低迷,对于发达国家提出的农药残留限量标准,虽然积极采取措施进行应对,然而收效甚微。虽然销售额同比略有增长,但销量基本持平,未能恢复到肯定列表之前,福建茶叶市场基本处于被动状态。本文实证分析发达国家颁布的农药残留最大限量标准对福建茶叶出口的影响,并从政府、企业、协会三个层面上提出相应的对策。     

城市轨道交通直流牵引供电系统接触网残压

对于城市轨道交通来讲,在运行的过程中,直流牵引供电系统是使用最为主要的部件之一。在该系统应用的过程中,接触网残压问题是较为严重的问题,也是当前所出现问题当中比较普遍的一种。对于直流牵引供电系统来讲,当出现接触网残压问题时,可能会对人的生命安全造成严重威胁,同时也会使检修施工和接触网送电保护闭锁等相关工作受到影响,严重拖慢工作进度。因此,论文通过测试、仿真分析和模拟验证等方法,对城市轨道交通直流牵引供电系统接触网残压问题进行了研究与论述。     

Behind rising inequality and falling growth

This paper investigates why the upsurge of top income shares has coincided with economic slowdowns in the US since the late 1970s. I argue that a fast-growing unearned income from ‘wealth residual’ – the unexplained increase in wealth that is not accompanied by any increase in real output – lies behind them. To support this hypothesis, I measure wealth residual from the national accounts and associated statistics, and then perform a set of panel regressions using a comprehensive panel dataset of the US at the state level. The estimation results demonstrate that the rapid growth of wealth residual during the last four decades has contributed to a co-evolution of fast-growing inequality and falling growth.     

Equity valuation: A survey of professional practice

This paper reports the results of a scientific survey of the equity valuation practices of CFA Institute members with equity analysis job responsibilities. Using an instrument designed to minimize biases in prior valuation surveys and sampling a larger group than in previous studies (13,500 investment professionals, resulting in 1,980 valid completed questionnaires), this paper documents professional practices in the selection of equity valuation approaches, including specific model variations and key input preferences. Important differences in practice were observed across geographies and employer firm types.     

Distribution of residual autocorrelations for multiplicative seasonal ARMA models with uncorrelated but nonindependent error terms

In this paper, we consider portmanteau tests for testing the adequacy of multiplicative seasonal autoregressive moving‐average models under the assumption that the errors are uncorrelated but not necessarily independent. We relax the standard independence assumption on the error terms in order to extend the range of applications of the seasonal autoregressive moving‐average models. We study the asymptotic distributions of residual and normalized residual empirical autocovariances and autocorrelations under weak assumptions on noise. We establish the asymptotic behavior of the proposed statistics. A set of Monte Carlo experiments and an application to monthly mean total sunspot number are presented.     

Debreu’s coefficient of resource utilization, the Solow residual, and TFP: the connection by Leontief preferences

Debreu’s coefficient of resource utilization is freed from individual data requirements. The procedure is shown to be equivalent to the imposition of Leontief preferences. The rate of growth of the modified Debreu coefficient and the Solow residual are shown to add up to TFP growth. This decomposition is the neoclassical counterpart to the frontier analytic decomposition of productivity growth into technical change and efficiency change. The terms can now be broken down by sector as well as by factor input.

论散装液体化学品危险性评价标准的局限性

概述现有的国内外散装液体化学品危险性评价标准,分析现有标准存在的局限性。