电网故障模型中贝叶斯网络和DS证据理论的应用

由于电网的复杂性和多变性,导致电网故障中存在信息不确定性问题,这就需要依靠贝叶斯网络和DS证据理论的自动生成方法。文章主要描述了这两种方法的原理,讨论了贝叶斯网络和DS证据理论在电网故障模型领域应用的可能方式和情况,并运用一些实例证明了这种方法的可靠性。     

The Reinhart-Rogoff controversy as an instance of the ‘emerging contrary result’ phenomenon

The article proposes a new approach to the Reinhart–Rogoff affair. In contrast to the two explanations of the controversy put forward in existing literature, I argue that Growth in a Time of Debt and its criticism published by Herndon, Ash and Pollin (Does high public debt constantly stifle economic growth? A critique of Reinhart and Rogoff) exemplify the ‘emerging contrary result’ phenomenon (emerging recalcitrant result, ERR). Three arguments support this hypothesis. First, the infamous spreadsheet error did not cause the findings to differ. On the contrary, the results differed mostly due to employing alternative averaging schemes. Second, the cliometric techniques employed by both research teams are justified to a similar degree. Third, the pattern in the cliometric literature focused on the 90%-threshold hypothesis suggests that the Reinhart–Rogoff controversy exemplifies an ERR phenomenon caused by submission/publication bias.     

地方新建本科院校体育、艺术类学生英语自主学习能力培养研究

随着地方新建本科院校招生规模逐年扩大,体育、艺术类学生的招生量也在不断地增加。作为大学英语教学的对象,体育、艺术类学生是一个特殊的学生群体,他们普遍存在着英语基础差、学习自主性程度和水平不高、学习策略水平不高等特点。文章旨在通过行动研究的方法为体育、艺术类学生的大学英语教学提供一个课内外相结合的自主学习教学模式,以期提高学生的英语学习效率。     

论企业物流成本管理

进入21世纪后,企业通过在生产领域降低成本获得竞争优势的空间已非常狭小,无疑,物流管理成为当前企业最重要的竞争领域。文中通过对企业物流成本现状进行分析,提出加强物流成本管理、降低流通费用、建立科学的物流成本核算体系的方法,从企业综合管理角度和物流方向各环节进行物流成本管理和控制,以获取市场竞争优势。     

水晶球案若干民事诉讼问题探究

在民事诉讼中,举证责任的分配对于当事人是否能实现其诉求有着至关重要的作用。文中通过以"水晶球案件"这样一个典型案例为引子,试图对民事诉讼中举证责任及其分配以及当事人的抗辩与否认对于举证责任承担的影响等问题发表一些意见以求教于诸位专家学者。     

库存周期计算的价值方法和实物方法研究

研究比较了库存周期计算的价值方法和实践中常常使用的实物方法,并以钢铁制造企业的钢卷产品为例加以说明。     

THE IMPACT OF THE EU EMISSIONS TRADING SYSTEM ON COMPETITIVENESS AND CARBON LEAKAGE: THE ECONOMETRIC EVIDENCE

This paper carefully surveys the econometric literature that tests for competitiveness effects and related carbon leakage caused by the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). The results of this literature tell us that to date there is no evidence of the EU ETS having had widespread negative or positive effects on the competitiveness of regulated firms, nor is there evidence of significant carbon leakage. However, the paper also identifies three important caveats to this general conclusion. Firstly, the evidence we have still largely refers to the first two trading periods, namely Phases I (2005–2007) and II (2008–2012). Secondly, some heterogeneity of estimated effects is observed, but patterns, notably sectoral patterns, hardly emerge. Thirdly, very little explored is whether the EU ETS has had long-term effects on the economy via investment leakage or firm dynamics. Further empirical studies investigating these long-term effects are particularly desirable.     

Alcohol abuse among adolescents: regional evidence from Spain

The aim of this paper is to offer regional evidence from Spain on alcohol abuse among adolescents. Specifically, we identify the determinants of the decision to abuse alcohol with respect to the five most important regions of Spain, as well as for the country as a whole. To this end, we estimate Probit specifications using data drawn from the Spanish Surveys on Drug Use in the School Population corresponding to 1994, 1996 and 1998. The results first reveal patterns that are qualitatively similar, but quantitatively different. Similarly, it would appear that economic policies aimed at reducing the access of adolescents to alcohol may have a positive effect on reducing abuse. Finally, the results suggest that encouragement be given to healthy habits among young people, as well as to the fight against education failure and the launching of information campaigns that accurately portray the current lifestyle of adolescents.     

基于灰关联分析与D-S证据理论的多传感器雷达辐射源识别方法

本文涉及中国公司针对美国商务部裁决产自中国的罐装蘑菇构成倾销的司法审查的案件,文章对该案的基本案情、推理理由、法院判决进行了归纳,并就我国企业如何利用美国反倾销的司法审查的程序进行了简要评述。     

自由美丽人格的培育—蔡元培德育思想解读

蔡元培先生认为,要培养自由美丽的人格,首先要通过军国民教育、实利主义、公民道德教育、世界观教育和美育来完成从现实世界到实体世界过渡的外向自由和内向自由的双重结合,同时实现"思想自由,兼容并包"的大学教育改革。现今德育也应该借鉴蔡元培先生的理念,重视"自由"在德育中的积极意义,在德育的实践中坚持"思想自由,兼容并包"的教育理念,结合德育的教育内容满足大学生的心理需求,使其主体性和个性得以积极发挥。