对铁路行包房经营配送业务的探讨

经合现代物流的发展特点，对铁路行包房经营配送业务的可行性进行了分析，提出在铁路行包房建立配送中心经营配送业务，并具体阐明了基本思路和应该注意的问题，对于促进铁路行包运输物流化将起到推动作用。     

基于QFD的物流战略规划

分析了应用质量功能展开进行物流战略规划的意义，将物流战略规划分解为系统收集基础信息，推演，评价，整合物流战略目标四个步骤，并基于QFD方法分别进行了阐述。     

我国经济适用房政策趋向分析

经济适用房从实施到现在并没有很好地解决中低收入者的住房问题。在借鉴国外住房保障的基础上。本文认为应取消经济适用房代之以扩大廉租房适用范围来保障低收入者住房问题，而对于中等收入者可通过大力发展二手房市场及住房金融体系来解决。     

Hedging Housing Risk*

An unusually rich source of data on housing prices in Stockholm is used to analyze the investment implications of housing choices. This empirical analysis derives market-wide price and return series for housing investment during a 13-year period, and it also provides estimates of the individual-specific, idiosyncratic, variation in housing returns. Because the idiosyncratic component follows an autocorrelated process, the analysis of portfolio choice is dependent upon the holding period. We analyze the composition of household investment portfolios containing housing, common stocks, stocks in real estate holding companies, bonds, and t-bills. For short holding periods, the efficient portfolio contains essentially no housing. For longer periods, low-risk portfolios contain 15 to 50 percent housing. These results suggest that there are large potential gains from policies or institutions that would permit households to hedge their lumpy investments in housing. We estimate the potential value of hedges in reducing risk to households, yet yielding the same investment returns. The value is surprisingly large, especially to poorer homeowners.     

A Semiparametric Method for Valuing Residential Locations: Application to Automated Valuation

This paper is motivated by automated valuation systems, which would benefit from an ability to estimate spatial variation in location value. It develops theory for the local regression model (LRM), a semiparametric approach to estimating a location value surface. There are two parts to the LRM: (1) an ordinary least square (OLS) model to hold constant for interior square footage, land area, bathrooms, and other structural characteristics; and (2) a non-parametric smoother (local polynomial regression, LPR) which calculates location value as a function of latitude and longitude. Several methods are used to consistently estimate both parts of the model. The LRM was fit to geocoded hedonic sales data for six towns in the suburbs of Boston, MA. The estimates yield substantial, significant and plausible spatial patterns in location values. Using the LRM as an exploratory tool, local peaks and valleys in location value identified by the model are close to points identified by the tax assessor, and they are shown to add to the explanatory power of an OLS model. Out-of-sample MSE shows that the LRM with a first-degree polynomial (local linear smoothing) is somewhat better than polynomials of degree zero or degree two. Future applications might use degree zero (the well-known NW estimator) because this is available in popular commercial software. The optimized LRM reduces MSE from the OLS model by between 5 percent and 11 percent while adding information on statistically significant variations in location value.     

Hedging Housing Risk in London

This paper investigates the benefits of allowing households to compensate the portfolio distortion due to their housing consumption through investments in housing price derivatives. Focusing on the London market, we show that a major loss from over-investment in housing is that households are forced to hold a very risky portfolio. However, the strong performance of the London housing market means that little is lost in terms of expected returns. Even households with limited wealth are better off owning their home rather than renting and investing in financial assets, as long as they are willing to face the financial risk involved. In this context, access to housing price derivatives would benefit most poor homeowners looking to limit their risk exposure. It would also benefit wealthier investors looking for the high returns provided by housing investments without the costs of direct ownership of properties. Comparisons with French, Swedish and U.S. data provide a broader perspective on our findings.     

Owning and testing smoke alarms: findings from a qualitative study

Reducing injury and death in house fires is an important public health intervention activity with the presence of an operating smoke alarm widely considered an important way of reducing harm from fire. Yet despite a number of initiatives and fire-safety campaigns, a number of households at greater risk of domestic fire fail to have a functioning alarm. This paper provides empirical insight into everyday experiences of owning, maintaining and testing smoke alarms among a purposive sample of individuals identified as being less likely to own a functioning smoke alarm. Analysis from focus group data identifies a number of reasons why individuals may not own or test an alarm, and provides new insight into how fire risk is understood in the context of a range of competing, and potentially more prominent, individual and household risks. We suggest that while initiatives that aim to reduce fire injury and death should be continued, their success, and indeed future research on fire risk, should pay attention to the mundane and everyday contexts within which individuals currently rarely reflect on their risk of experiencing a domestic fire.     

发达国家住房福利政策的演变及启示——我国公租房领域供给侧结构性改革探析

我国公租房领域存在投资主体单一、政府财政压力大、市场参与度不够、配置低效、供需失衡及错配、贫富分区程度加大等问题，需通过推进供给侧结构性改革来予以解决。发达国家住房福利政策的演变表明，住房政策应与住房市场供需状况相适应，政府所扮演的角色须从“公共住房的直接供给者”走向“市场化供给的环境营造者”，即从“补砖头”到“补人头”是住房福利政策演进的必然趋势。我国公租房领域供给侧结构性改革应与住房供求情况相匹配。一方面，要转变政府职能，从政府实物配给逐步过渡到市场化供给；另一方面，要积极打造健康的住宅租赁投资市场以促进公租房供给市场化，并通过开发配建和货币化补贴等措施促成公租房“隐形化”混合居住模式。     

Do regional house prices converge or diverge in China?

This paper aims to test whether the regional house prices are convergent or divergent in China using a monthly panel data set of China’s 70 large and medium-sized cities from July 2005 to December 2010. This issue is closely related to understanding the efficiency of the country-level housing policies made by China’s central government. The test results suggest that the regional house prices in China are generally divergent, and thereby the country-level policies may be inefficient since they do not explicitly take the strong heterogeneity of China’s regional housing markets into consideration. As a consequence, it may be better for China’s central government to further decentralize and devolve its governance toward the housing market to the local governments.     

房价、房产税、土地财政困境的研究综述与思考

本文回顾了近年来有关房产税在立法基础、对于房价的影响、公平性等问题上的一些讨论成果。首先,房产税立法确有瑕疵,需进一步完善法制体系;其次,沪渝试点房产税设计对于房价的抑制作用有限。