Housing markets and the economy: the assessment

Housing markets have multiple interactions with the rest ofthe economy and these are surveyed in this paper. The driversof house prices include income, the housing stock, demography,credit availability, interest rates, and lagged appreciation,the latter a potential mechanism for overshooting. There israther less agreement on the determinants of new construction,though planning constraints are widely seen as a major issueand one of the causes of the UK housing affordability problem.The paper argues that housing collateral and downpayment constraintsare the key to understanding the role of house-price variationsin explaining medium-term consumption fluctuations. Institutionalvariations between countries and over time account for majordifferences in linkages between house prices and economic activity.This illuminates debates about how monetary and other policyshould react to house-price variations. The paper also discussesthe role of housing markets in explaining regional migrationand location decisions, intergenerational inequality, and restrictingaccess of the less affluent to public goods, such as good schools,which are capitalized in local house prices.     

Discussion of 'House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy' by Charles Goodhart and Boris Hofmann

Goodhart and Hoffman aim to examine causal and other links betweenhouse prices, liquidity, and activity, and this note commentson their results. One part of the mechanism is via wealth—butarguably house-price changes have little net impact on wealth,although there are collateral effects. The authors clearly establishstrong empirical links between the variables examined. The mainpractical issues are to do with identification of the sourceof shocks and therefore on the interpretation of the results.     

Electricity saving behavior of households by making efforts,replacing appliances,and renovations: empirical analysis using a multivariate ordered probit model

This study empirically explores the determinants of household electricity saving behavior based on a sample of Japanese households. Our study makes four contributions. First, we examine the short‐term saving action of making efforts, the medium‐term saving action of replacing appliances, and the long‐term saving action of undertaking renovations. Second, we consider not only the physical characteristics of households but also behavioral characteristics, such as their understanding of the importance of energy saving and willingness to save energy. Third, in our analysis, we assume that appliances and housing facilities have the electricity‐saving capability and service‐providing capability. While previous studies focus on the former, consumers in reality consider both capabilities. Fourth, we consider the optimization by households and include broad types of appliances and renovations. Using a multivariate ordered probit model with data on 518 Japanese households in 2012, we obtain the following results. First, in addition to the demand response, the effort level is determined by behavioral, rather than by physical characteristics. Second, the motivation behind appliance replacement is durability, rather than electricity‐saving and service‐providing capabilities. Third, appliance replacement is enhanced by an understanding of the importance of energy saving, rather than by the willingness to save energy. Households can replace appliances because of social pressure, even if they are not so concerned about saving energy. Fourth, households are willing to renovate housing facilities even though they pay a higher cost for the greater saving capability rather than for the service‐providing capability. However, such renovation is not influenced by internal incentives, but by physical aspects of the house, such as size, age, and type.     

物业税无益于抑制房价:基于供求关系的分析

推出物业税政策的重要目的之一是通过抑制投机性需求进而抑制房价。从经济学角度看,某种商品的市场价格归根结底是由供求关系而非成本来决定的。通过物业税对住房供给和需求影响的分析,得出的结论是新税收政策可能会增加供给,但会增加自住性购房人的总支出,在短期内抑制自住性需求,但对投资性需求影响不大。在相对较长一段时间内对需求影响不大,对抑制房价没有太大的作用。     

基于马克思地租理论的中国城市房价形成研究

本文运用马克思地租理论分析中国城市房地产经济现象,得到结论:城市房地产价格由生产过程中凝结的抽象劳动和地租资本化的加总决定;房地产价格可转化为成本价格、平均利润、城市地租的购买价格三个部分,其中城市级差地租决定了房价趋势的形成;同时在城市的不断发展和扩张中,级差地租受单个城市规模的限制给城市房价设定了一个运行区间。可见稳定房价需拉平城市房地产区位差异并对土地价值增值部分进行收入再分配。     

The Impact of Green Building Labels on the Price of Housing: Evidence from China

This paper focuses on the willingness to pay for green housing in China. First, we introduce green building related labels in China and briefly discuss the consumers’ incentives to buy this kind of building. Second, with the available transaction data in Shanghai, a hedonic regression model is applied to investigate whether or not a price premium in the residential market exists. Furthermore, we use the nonparametric matching model under a treatment framework to see the robustness of our results. The empirical result shows there exists a significant price premium in China. However, the premium does not increase with quality certification tiers. That may imply that homebuyers in China are not sensitive to the differences among green buildings although they are willing to pay a higher price for this newly emerging energy-saving building. And we also give the explanation why this has happened.     

Monetary policy,corporate profit and house prices

By using portfolio theory, we explain the highly observed correlation between the seemingly unrelated corporate profit and house prices in the United States. We test the predictions of the underlying model using a vector autoregression representation and find the data to be supportive of the theory. Monetary impulses explain high correlation as both corporate profit and house prices exhibit similar dynamics in response to a monetary impulse. Robustness checks are presented by using the federal funds rate instead of the monetary base as a measure of the stance of monetary policy and by using other model variations. In all cases, the results are robust.     

Bubbles in US regional house prices: evidence from house price–income ratios at the State level

We investigate the presence of bubbles in the US house price-income ratio at the State level by applying the recent time series-based econometric test to data from January 1975 to December 2014. We find evidence of bubbles in several States in the 1980s (i.e. California, Hawaii, Massachusetts, New York, etc.), which coincides with some existing studies that investigate housing bubbles or booms and busts using a range of alternative approaches. Our results show the existence of a housing bubble that originates in the early 2000s and collapses in the mid-2000s in more than 20 States and the District of Columbia concluding that the bubbles of the 2000s were more widespread than the 1980s, which is of special interest and importance. Our results seem to be in agreement with the talk given by Alan Greenspan in 2005, who suggest no sign of a nationwide housing bubble but a lot of local bubbles. We also study the importance of the regression model specification with/without an intercept and the regression model with an intercept could lead to false-positive identification of bubbles.     

集约节约用地,规范农宅建设——以唐山市为例

农民建房占地即农宅占地是建设用地的重要组成部分。随着经济发展速度加快和农民生活水平的提高,农宅占地也逐年增多,已占建设用地的近四分之一。国家在不同时期制定了不同的农宅占地政策,近期加上土地利用总体规划限制,造成农宅占地乱、管理难、规范难,越权批地、违法占地建农房屡禁不止,已经影响到了农村稳定和农村经济的健康发展。以唐山市为例,应以农宅用地的历史和现实状况为依据,分析农村宅基地建设和管理中出现的问题及问题产生的原因,进而从规划、管理、制度等方面采取措施规范农村宅基地管理。     

城市化过程中住宅产业可持续发展研究

住宅产业可持续发展可以有效解决城市化过程中人口增多带来的住宅压力。影响城市化过程中住宅产业的因素很多,主要存在于经济、生态和社会三方面。其主要对策为:在住宅产业经济可持续战略中,应以需求层次为导向,适度调低普通住宅和经济实用住宅的价格,改进个人住房金融服务,实现住宅产业的现代化。在住宅产业生态可持续战略中应发展绿色生态住宅模式高效集约化利用城市土地,建立有效的土地产权制度。在住宅的社会可持续发展战略中,建立合理的城镇居民住房保障制度,营造文明健康的人居环境。