Correspondence to what? Coherence to what? What is good scenario-based decision making?

This paper provides a framework for the evaluation of scenario planning and other strategic decision making methods or techniques. If scenario planning is useful, we should be teaching it in schools and we as individuals should be using it to cope with the uncertainty inherent in modern life. A prerequisite to this is the need to identify why, where and how (in what way) scenario planning and other methods or techniques are useful. Here, I review evaluations of scenario planning. Taking a Brunswikian perspective, I highlight the issues that have failed to be addressed in this evaluation. I demonstrate that there are many ways in which scenario planning could be useful other than those that have appeared in previous discussions. These multiple routes are dependent upon the interaction between the individual organisation, the environment in which they are operating and the method being followed.     

中国石油企业环境保护战略规划研究

针对石油企业环境问题的现状,采用SWOT分析法,分析了石油企业实行环境保护战略的所面临外部的机会与威胁及内部的优势与劣势,从石油企业环境保护战略的基本原则、各阶段目标及战略重点方面进行了规划,研究结果有利于国家石油资源的战略安全、油田所在地的经济振兴和城市的稳定发展及石油企业的可持续发展。     

客观现象的概率统计解释举例

本文通过应用概率统计方法解释人类行为与认识活动实例的分析,说明了基于概率统计方法如何描述客观现象和理解人类的认识行为,进而得出概率统计方法是基于归纳的演绎推理,其本质是认识论中的归纳推理。     

基于空间受限条件下城际轨道交通梁场规划方案优化研究

结合穗莞深城际轨道交通洪梅梁场建设的实践经验,详细介绍了在沿线路方向场地空间极为有限、不符合常规布置方案的条件下,采用单、双线和25m、30m均可共用的制、存梁台座等方法对梁场规划布置方案进行比选和优化进而制定出适合该梁场实际情况的规划方案,并通过实际生产验证其可行性,对同类条件下城际轨道交通及铁路客运专线制梁场的规划方案的设计具有指导意义。     

Patterns on an ancient artifact: a coincidence?

The Phaistos Disk is an ancient artifact from Crete. At each side of the disk, a series of unknown signs is written along a spiral. Professional archaeologists expect that we will only learn what it is until similar objects are found. A statistical analysis in this article shows what it is not: it is not a one‐dimensional text, since there are relations between the signs in adjacent windings of the spiral. Three patterns of such relations have been identified. A Monte Carlo simulation of one of them has been performed, using a model of the spiral form. It is concluded that the probability of this pattern being coincidental is small, well below the conventional threshold.     

Asymptotic comparison at optimal levels of reduced‐bias extreme value index estimators

In this article we are interested in the asymptotic comparison, at optimal levels, of a set of semi‐parametric reduced‐bias extreme value (EV) index estimators, valid for a wide class of heavy‐tailed models, underlying the available data. Again, as in the classical case, there is not any estimator that can always dominate the alternatives, but interesting clear‐cut patterns are found. Consequently, and in practice, a suitable choice of a set of EV index estimators will jointly enable us to better estimate the EV index γ, the primary parameter of extreme events.     

土地利用总体规划实施保证体系

作为土地利用总体规划重要一环的实施保证体系常常不被重视,笔者在参与众多地区的土地利用总体规划基础上,认为土地利用总体规划实施保障体系包括土地利用分区和分区管制措施、土地整理复垦、荒地开发与中低产田改造等内容。其中的核心部分是土地利用分区和分区管制措施。对每一部分的详细内容作了详细阐述。     

Democracy on the edge: limits and possibilities in the implementation of an urban reform agenda in Brazil

The 1990s in Brazil were a time of institutional advances in the areas of housing and urban rights following the signing of the new constitution in 1988 that incorporated the principles of the social function of cities and property, recognition of the right to ownership of informal urban squatters and the direct participation of citizens in urban policy decision processes. These propositions are the pillars of the urban reform agenda which, since the creation of the Ministry of Cities by the Lula government, has come under the federal executive branch. This article evaluates the limitations and opportunities involved in implementing this agenda on the basis of two policies proposed by the ministry — the National Cities Council and the campaign for Participatory Master Plans — focusing the analysis on government organization in the area of urban development in its relationship with the political system and the characteristics of Brazilian democracy.     

Measurement and its Uses: Harmonization and Quality in Social Statistics

The European construction has induced a strong demand of harmonization of statistics of the various countries. The latter can be focused on an harmonization of outputs , already practised for a long time by national accountants: the statistical variables are defined in common, then each country measures them according to its own means. On the other hand, the harmonization of inputs, more ambitious, seeks a standardization of all the construction process and data collection. This leads to distinguish clearly the two moments of use and of production of economic and social statistics. Now the same distinction is made in the debates over the notion of quality of statistics, which contrast the quality of the product with the one of the process. This quality cannot be judged independently from the expected uses of these statistics and of their form of social credibility. From this point of view, the various harmonization levels are compared with the various forms of connection and convertibility between the national currencies.     

基于RFID的零售企业信息追溯与补库策略

提出了基于无线射频技术（RFID）的零售企业生鲜食品的信息追溯技术和持续补库计划（CRP）策略,集成了整合发货和库存补货,并构建了用以计算最高库存量和配送周期的供应商管理库存模式下的补货数学模型,模型中充分考虑了生鲜食品的特性（腐坏）,确保零售企业销售生鲜食品的质量安全.在通过采用RFID技术实时监控销售和库存数据的基础上,供应商能够依据模型在发货周期内确定最佳的货物配送时间和配送数量,主动补货,在保证食品安全的同时实现总的长期平均成本最小化.