Simulation driven inferences for multiply imputed longitudinal datasets*

In this article, we demonstrate by simulations that rich imputation models for incomplete longitudinal datasets produce more calibrated estimates in terms of reduced bias and higher coverage rates without duly deflating the efficiency. We argue that the use of supplementary variables that are thought to be potential causes or correlates of missingness or outcomes in the imputation process may lead to better inferential results in comparison to simpler imputation models. The liberal use of these variables is recommended as opposed to the conservative strategy.     

旅游业促进新农村建设的作用与对策

我国农业旅游资源丰富多彩,地域分布特色鲜明,旅游业在新农村建设中有着积极的促进作用。要统筹规划,合理布局;搞好试点,注重引导;加强管理,重视培训;加大投入,打造精品;科学营销,城乡互动;拓宽思路,多元发展,因地制宜地推进旅游业与农业的互动与整合,充分发挥旅游业在促进新农村建设的积极作用。     

二级城市发展现代服务业的困境和解决途径--以苏州、无锡、杭州为例

近年来,我国大都市区中的二级城市在制造业的支撑下获得了快速发展,形成了制造业和首位城市水平分工,现代服务业高度依赖首位城市的产业分工格局.本文从维持二级城市经济持续成长的角度出发,以上海都市区的三座特大二级城市苏州、无锡和杭州为例,研究了二级城市现代服务业发展的现状,分析了二级城市现代服务业发展的限制性因素,从市场、优先发展的部门、产业组织、制度环境的营造等方面探讨了加速二级城市现代服务业发展的可能途径.     

Discrepancies between ex ante and ex post efficiency under identical subjective probabilities

Summary. Starr (1973) showed that, if people have different subjective probabilities, ex ante and ex post efficiency conflict. Conversely, under the simple preferences that he considered, the discrepancy between ex ante and ex post efficiency disappears when subjective probabilities are identical. Here I consider identical subjective probabilities, but more general preferences. First, risk attraction is admitted. Second, I dispense with the double requirement (dubbed IZU) of additive separability and state-independence of the utility of zero-date consumption, an unrealistic requirement when modeling the investment in durable goods. I find that, under IZU, and as long as ex post preferences satisfy the natural assumption of quasiconcavity (and satisfy some technical qualifications), an ex ante efficient allocation is indeed ex post efficient, but the converse is not necessarily true under risk attraction. If, on the other hand, IZU is violated, then one can have ex ante efficient allocations that are not ex post efficient, and vice-versa, even under risk aversion. Received: June 25, 1999; revised version: March 2001     

对马克思按分配原则的反思

马克思的劳动价值论不仅是剩余价值的理论基础和分析资本主义分配的理论依据，同时也是马克思设想的社会主义按劳分配的逻辑起点。只是以往我们对按劳分配原则的最本质的含义理解不够透彻。实质上，应该说马克思设想的按劳分配原则最本质的内容包括三点，即在未来的社会主义社会中，个人消费品的分配以劳动量的大小为依据，等量劳动获取等量报酬，承认能力本位。在社会主义市场经济条件下的按劳分配原则，仍然没有偏离这三点本质的含义，但已经有了新的特点和形式。     

新农村金融:理论、成因及中国相关制度安排——基于建设社会主义新农村视角

发展农村经济、建设社会主义新农村离不开农村金融的支持,我国现存农村金融体制的种种缺陷已经成为阻碍农村进步的绊脚石。本文对我国农村金融体制进行考察,对其农村金融组织体系及配套的扶持政策进行评介,找出我国农村金融的不足,提出与社会主义新农村建设相适应的农村金融体制改革路径选择。主要结论有:我国农村金融体制改革,要发挥市场机制的导向作用,建立农村资金良性循环机制;政府应该承担主导作用,建立多层次、全方位的农村金融体制等。     

邮政物流配送系统开发

以某邮政局邮政物流配送系统为例，探讨了基于邮政综合网的物流配送系统开发。     

Linking Public Investment to Private Investment. The Case of Spanish Regions

Public investment constitutes one of the main instruments of regional policies. The existence of a direct link between infrastructure and regional income per capita is usually accepted. Literature also describes a positive effect of public investment on private capital accumulation. This paper seeks to provide new empirical evidence on this latter relationship for the case of Spanish regions over the period 1965–1997 using panel data methodology. The results show a positive effect of productive and social public investment (especially in education) on private investment. The spillover effects generated by the productive infrastructures located in other regions do not seem to encourage the private investment in neighbouring regions. Public consumption and interest rate exert a negative influence on private capital accumulation. These results are robust to changes in the econometric specification.     

基于人地系统视角的小城镇可持续发展

本文从人地关系的角度入手,通过对小城镇人地系统的剖析,指出当前小城镇发展中的问题实质是人地关系问题,据此提出构建小城镇自组织机制以增强综合竞争能力,创建耗散结构以推动开放,利用势差以促进产业发展,保护生态以创造优越区域结构和加强分类指导以推动小城镇有序发展乃小城镇可持续发展之现实途径。     

试论社会主义和谐社会的信息功能

总结了信息的基本特性，阐述了信息、信息系统与社会主义和谐社会的关系，井指出构建和谐的信息社会是构建社会主义和谐社会的重要切入点。从信息的基本特性出发，提出了一些强化信息功能，促进社会主义和谐社会的构建与发展的建议。