Stable Asymptotics for M‐estimators

We review some first‐order and higher‐order asymptotic techniques for M‐estimators, and we study their stability in the presence of data contaminations. We show that the estimating function (ψ) and its derivative with respect to the parameter play a central role. We discuss in detail the first‐order Gaussian density approximation, saddlepoint density approximation, saddlepoint test, tail area approximation via the Lugannani–Rice formula and empirical saddlepoint density approximation (a technique related to the empirical likelihood method). For all these asymptotics, we show that a bounded ψ (in the Euclidean norm) and a bounded (e.g. in the Frobenius norm) yield stable inference in the presence of data contamination. We motivate and illustrate our findings by theoretical and numerical examples about the benchmark case of one‐dimensional location model.     

北方干旱与防旱保墒技术—对灌溉农业的反思

我国北方降水不足,存在着旱灾易于发生的自然条件。近些年来,黄河年年断流。许多地区地下水位下降,给片面依赖灌溉发展农业的指导思想敲响了警钟。北方地区的农业有近万年的历史,在漫长的历史时期中,我国人民主要是依靠传统的防旱保墒技术,而不是灌溉,来发展农业生产的。     

网络营销亟需解决的问题及对策

网络营销逐渐发展普及,但随之而来的问题也初见端倪。本文论述了电子邮件营销存在的问题和网络营销安全问题,及针对这两个问题的解决对策。     

Breaking the frame: an analysis of strategic cognition and decision making under uncertainty

This paper reports the findings of two experimental investigations into the efficacy of a causal cognitive mapping procedure as a means for overcoming cognitive biases arising from the framing of strategic decision problems. In Study 1, final year management studies undergraduate students were presented with an elaborated strategic decision scenario, under one of four experimental conditions: positively vs. negatively framed decision scenarios, with prechoice vs. postchoice mapping task orders (i.e., participants were required to engage in cognitive mapping before or after making a decision). As predicted, participants in the postchoice mapping conditions succumbed to the framing bias whereas those in the prechoice mapping conditions did not. Study 2 replicated and extended these findings in a field setting, on a sample of senior managers, using a decision scenario that closely mirrored a strategic dilemma currently facing their organization. Taken together, the findings of these studies indicate that the framing bias is likely to be an important factor in strategic decision making, and suggest that cognitive mapping provides an effective means of limiting the damage accruing from this bias. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of advanced tourism studies in Holland

Bodewes, Theo, Development of Advanced Tourism Studies in Holland. Annals of Tourism Research 1981, VIII(1):35–51. The entry of tourism studies into the field of advanced education is often a difficult process. Theory and practice sometimes serve conflicting interests. In the Netherlands an option has been taken for a theoretical, multi-disciplinary approach with links to the field of practice. Within this framework, tourism is indissolubly connected with leisure and recreation, leisure being the core of studies. This implies that the universities should educate leisure economists, leisure sociologists, etc., and that advanced professional educational institutions should educate leisure experts. This paper discusses whether the problems and solutions in the Netherlands are recognizable and/or useful abroad, and whether one institution can learn from the experiences of others.     

大倾角综采工作面撤除工艺优化与应用

大倾角综采工作面设备快速撤除一直是煤矿生产的技术难题。本文针对刘庄煤矿121106俯采工作面撤除难题,通过合理优化工作面设备撤除整体路线以及撤除施工工艺,实现了工作面设备的安全快速撤除。     

关于高职教育烹饪工艺与营养专业定位及教学分析

高职烹饪工艺与营养专业人才培养研究已成为餐饮管理与服务类教学改革研究的焦点问题。本文就高职教育烹饪工艺与营养专业的定位、人才培养、教学等诸方面分析,将对专业存在的问题进行分析,提出解决的措施及教学方法改革方面的建议。     

Intercountry feedback and spillover effects within the international supply and use framework: a Bayesian perspective*

This paper proposes a new framework for the estimation of product-level global and interregional feedback and spillover (FS) factor multipliers. The framework is directly based on interregional supply and use tables (SUTs) that could be rectangular and gives a possibility of taking account of the inherent input–output data uncertainty problems. A Bayesian econometric approach is applied to the framework using the first version of international SUTs in the World Input–Output Database. The obtained estimates of the global and intercountry FS output effects are discussed and presented at the world, country and product levels for the period of 1995–2009.     

Forecasting housing land requirements

Summary

Because of pressures on the countryside by private housing development, the Government and the planners have become increasingly involved in planning policy issues and in forecasting land requirements. The forecasting techniques used are examined, and their translation into local allocations through structure and local plans and land availability studies are looked at. The demand for more land releases is attributed more to structural changes in the housebuilding industry and local land shortages in the south‐east than to real shortfalls in housing provision. There is a need for improved monitoring systems for land resource management, particularly in balancing ‘green‐field’ releases against development/redevelopment in existing urban areas.     

Major Psychological Factors Affecting Acceptance of New Breeding Techniques for Crops

New plant biotechnologies called new breeding techniques (NBT), which will follow the present genetically modified (GM) technology, have appeared and are attracting attention worldwide. The first purpose of this study was to show consumer attitudes toward traditional plant breeding, GM, and NBT crops. The second purpose was to verify the validity of a psychological model determining the acceptance of NBT crops. A survey was conducted in Japan with 657 randomly selected adult participants. The results showed that perceived risk, perceived benefit, trust, sense of bioethics, anxiety, and anger play an important role in the personal and public acceptance of NBT and indicated that trust and anxiety are especially important factors in both situations.