Revisiting the labor supply effect of social security earnings test: New evidence from its elimination and reinstatement in Japan

We explore the labor supply effect of the social security earnings test in Japan on those aged 65–69 years through a combined examination of the elimination of the earnings test in 1985 and its reinstatement in 2002. We present evidence showing that the effects of changes in the earnings tests on the labor supply of the elderly are not symmetric, controlling for changes in the attributes of workers and firms. The repeal of the earnings test in 1985 did affect the earnings distribution of the elderly (especially for male), while its reinstatement in 2002 did not alter the earnings distribution.     

Measuring systemic risk with regime switching in tails

This paper motivates the importance of modeling nonlinearities in measuring systemic risk. I capitalize this motivation by generalizing the CoVaR approach proposed by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2016) to allow it switching between a high and a normal risk regime filtered from data.. Considering the U.S. large bank holding companies (BHCs), this paper shows that modeling regime changes in tails is capable of capturing both amplification and mean-reversion effects of an adverse shock to a bank's balance sheet on the banking system. Using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test statistics with and without bootstrapping, I perform the significance test to identify systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs), and the stochastic dominance test to rank the identified SIFIs. The stochastic dominance test raises the concern that the CoVaR measure underestimates systemic risk contributions for SIFIs but overestimates for non-SIFIs. Finally, applying the BHCs' characteristics and housing market price to forecast the regime-switching systemic risk out-of-sample, I obtain from 4- and 8-quarter-ahead horizons a desirable countercyclical, forward-looking measure of systemic risk.     

TEM4改革前后完形填空的考点效度对比分析

2005年以来英语专业四级考试完形填空试题的考点效度比以前有所提高,但句子层次考点数量仍然偏高。教师在教学过程中应注重培养学生的语篇理解能力和逻辑分析能力,提高学生的语言综合运用能力。     

生物工程大实验课程改革与探讨

生物工程大实验是生物工程专业的一门重要的综合性实验课程,就当前生物工程大实验教学存在的几点问题,从实验内容、实验体系、实验方法、考核方式方面对生物工程大实验进行改革与探讨。     

The Unintended Consequences of High Expectations and Pressure on New CEOs

We provide empirical tests of a general version of targeting theory that greater scrutiny could lead to executive abuses. Our results show that new CEOs under higher expectations or pressure are more likely to report meeting analyst forecasts; however, this apparent superior performance dissipates after excluding firms having characteristics synonymous with earnings manipulation. We find evidence that new CEOs under greater pressure are considerably more likely to engage in manipulation while the link between expectations and manipulation is much weaker. The results are strongest for new CEOs whose firms report meeting forecasts and do not “walk down” earnings estimates.     

Retrospect of the Chinese Exchange Rate Regime after Reform： Stylized Facts during the Period from 2005 to 2010

In the present paper, we estimate the de facto RMB exchange rate regime, the currency basket, the floating band and the foreign exchange market pressure before and after the reform of the Chinese exchange rate regime in 2005. We find the following stylized facts： the value of the RAIB became stable after the reform; the weight of the US dollar remained high in the basket, while other currencies remained statistically significant; and the floating band gradually increased to lO percent during 2005-2008, and then greatly narrowed from the late summer of 2008 under the assumption of a yearly resetting interval. We find that the foreign exchange market pressure increased from 2005 to 2008. A possible reason is that the weight of the US dollar in the basket was slightly lower than the share of the US dollar in total transactions on the Chinese foreign exchange market. Therefore, it is reasonable for China to adopt a dollar peg exchange rate regime.     

高压变频器在电厂凝结水泵上的应用

文章论述了高压变频器在燃煤发电厂大容量电动机上应用的必要性,介绍了凝结水泵的变频改造方案,分析了高压变频器改造的经济性,为同类型发电厂的节能降耗提供了借鉴经验和参考。     

从某一微车气囊设计探讨安全气囊标定技术

文章以某一微车安全气囊设计为基础,详细阐述汽车设计中气囊标定整车碰撞试验矩阵确定的依据、气囊标定对车辆状态的要求及气囊标定核心——点火控制的原理,从而得出准确的标定报告,以指导设计生产。     

港口物流机械风载荷计算方法研究

风载荷的研究在港口物流机械的设计和计算中占据着重要的地位,主要是因为它对起重机结构强度和稳定性的影响极其重要。而风载荷的确定通常由风力系数、挡风折减系数、有效迎风面积以及相应条件下的风压确定。     

The tactical and strategic value of hedge fund strategies: a cointegration approach

This paper analyzes long-term comovements between hedge fund strategies and traditional asset classes using multivariate cointegration methodology. Since cointegrated assets are tied together over the long run, a portfolio consisting of these assets will have lower long-term volatility. Thus, if the presence of cointegration lowers uncertainty, risk-averse investors should prefer assets that are cointegrated. Long-term (passive) investors can benefit from the knowledge of cointegrating relationships, while the built-in error correction mechanism allows active asset managers to anticipate short-run price movements. The empirical results indicate there is a long-run relationship between specific hedge fund strategies and traditional financial assets. Thus, the benefits of different hedge fund strategies are much less than suggested by correlation analysis and portfolio optimization. However, certain strategies combined with specific stock market segments offer portfolio managers adequate diversification potential, especially in the framework of tactical asset allocation.