中国资产价格与货币政策关系实证研究综述

国内学者对中国资产价格和货币政策的相关性进行了大量的实证研究,对货币政策的制定具有一定指导意义。这些研究成果在变量计量、研究方法等方面进行了大量探索,为该领域的理论研究做出了积极贡献。但是目前的成果也存在对中国资产结构、资产市场演变等研究背景考虑不足和成熟计量模型缺失等缺陷。     

The effect of real rates of interest on housing prices

During the late 1970s, U.S. house prices were appreciating rapidly even though mortgage interest rates were climbing. Recently, interest rates have eased but prices have moderated. This study examines the role of appreciation expectations in overcoming the negative effects of nominal mortgage interest rates on house prices. Expectations of future appreciation are important determinants of house sales prices, remaining influential during periods of declining and moderating real prices, not just when prices are rising. The real rate of interest, as viewed by the homebuyer, is the mechanism for affecting change in housing price levels. Because the nominal interest rate is slow to reflect changes in expectations, these real rates vary over time. This ebb and flow of real interest rates appears to explain market price levels. Nominal rates play a role as well, primarily in the formation of appreciation expectations.     

Futures prices and inflation information

This study examines the timing and speed with which inflation futures prices absorb inflation information. Results of the study show that inflation futures prices already reflect the expected inflation. Moreover, 71% of unexpected inflation has been reflected in futures prices about 25 business days prior to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) announcement, which usually coincides with the end of the CPI measurement period. Reaction to the remaining 29% occurs on and shortly after the CPI announcement date, especially on day 0 and day 2. The inflation risk premium that investors are willing to pay to avoid uncertain inflation is estimated to be 1.41% per annum.     

Non-parametric production analysis in non-competitive environments

We extend the non-parametric methodology for empirical production analysis to deal with endogenous prices. As price endogeneity is often complemented by price uncertainty, we consider both the case of certain prices and the case of uncertain prices. The extensions are fully compatible with existing tools for eliciting and representing technology and price information, and preserves the tractable mathematical programming structure of the original methodology. An empirical application to the Dutch electricity distribution sector illustrates our extension.     

Return generating processes of long-term bonds and measurement of risk: Theory and empirical tests

Using a continuous-time framework, Kazemi (1992) shows that changes in prices of long-term bonds could be perfectly correlated with changes in the representative investor's marginal utility of wealth. Therefore, the equilibrium expected excess return on any security would be proportional to its covariance with changes in prices of long-term bonds. The present paper first extends the above result to a discrete time framework and shows that there are significant differences between the continuous time and discrete time versions of the model. Second, we test an empirical implication of this result; the evidence supports the theoretical model.     

Prices and Regional Variation in Welfare

One would expect regional differences in prices to influence conclusions concerning levels and distributions of well-being. Although there is anecdotal evidence of significant price dispersion across regions, there is no governmental source of data that measures differences in price levels. In this paper I integrate estimates of regional prices with expenditure data from the Consumer Expenditure Surveys to assess the influence of price differences on living standards in the United States. While prices have little effect on inequality, estimates of poverty and the standard of living change substantially with the inclusion of regional price variation.     

Labour employed in production and labour commanded: a Ricardian conjecture

This paper explains the origin of some important ambiguitiesin the analysis of value and prices put forward by Smith inhis Wealth of Nations by considering the possibility that theyreflect a previous draft of the book where the quantity of labouremployed in production was indicated as the sole determinantof real price and exchange ratios. This conjecture is evidencedindirectly by the way in which Smith presented his own analysisat the end of Book I, Chapter IV; by some passages containedin Book I and Book II which suggest that the quantity of labouremployed in production should play a crucial role within theanalysis of exchangeable value; and by the important modificationsintroduced by Smith in Book I, Chapter VI, after the first editionof the Wealth of Nations was published.     

An International Analysis of Earnings, Stock Prices and Bond Yields

Abstract:  This paper assesses the contemporaneous relationship between stock prices, earnings and long-term government bond yields for a large number of countries. The time period of our data spans several decades. In a time series framework our analysis first tests the presence of a long-term contemporaneous relationship between these three variables (the so-called Fed model). Next, we assess if government bond yields play a significant role in the long-run relationship. Our empirical results question the validity of the Fed model in the sense that we show that long-term market movements are mainly driven by the earnings yield and not the differential between bond and earnings yields. As such, our analysis validates the results of Asness (2003) for a much larger collection of countries while using a dynamic time series (cointegration) framework. Finally, we also show that changes in long-term government bond yields have a short-term impact on stock prices.     

Modelling growth and revenue for Swedish hotel establishments

This paper provides first estimates of the determinants of output growth of Swedish hotels based on establishment data. Growth of overnight stays is modelled as a function of initial size, age, type of accommodation, location and hotel prices measured as average revenues per guest nights. The empirical model accounts for potential endogeneity of hotel prices through the two-stage least absolute deviation model (2SLAD) and the instrumental variable quantile regression method. 2SLAD estimates show a positive and significant relationship between hotel prices and subsequent growth. The relationship is nonlinear with a decreasing impact as the price level increases. Growth of establishments is significantly higher for smaller and younger hotels. An important result is that city hotels, in comparison to tourist and other hotels – which are mainly located outside urban areas (in the mountains and at the sea) – exhibit significantly higher growth rates with a gap between 2.2 and 3.4 percentage points. Furthermore, the positive impact of hotel prices on growth is larger for high-growth establishments. Accommodation prices significantly decrease with the number of local competitors with a non-linear form and increase with size. City hotels and accommodation in the capital city have the highest revenues per guest night.     

Food Prices Policy in Israel: A Strategic Instrument

Abstract:

The goal of this research is to demonstrate a significant importance of state policy of food prices supervision in Israel. The article begins with a detailed discussion of the healthy food basket’s components, based on the Israeli Ministry of Health recommendations. Next, we present the prices of the goods included in the basket, and a calculated estimate of the per capita cost of funding the basket. Based on this cost figure, we assess the economic ability of Israeli households to purchase the basket. The results show that two lowest quintiles would have trouble paying the price of a basic health food basket. Further, it describes the food prices in Israel and its significance, Israel’s food market and the major regulatory tools associated with the food market. In the end, we define the need for short-term and longer-term regulation of food costs, and the necessity of expanding competition in the food market.