基于共识模型和前景理论的输水工程运行安全风险评价

为了评估输水工程运行安全中防汛度汛不及时、地基缺陷、应急反应不及时、冰期输水不畅、异常渗透和水质安全出现问题6种关键风险因素的优先级,采用基于共识模型和前景理论改进的故障模式及影响分析法(FMEA),用语言分布评价法评估风险因子信息,用信任关系作为共识调整系数修改共识模型,用前景理论对故障模式的风险进行优先级排序。研究结果表明,异常渗漏的风险最大,冰期输水不畅风险最小,与实际情况相一致;并通过与其他改进的FMEA方法比较,验证了排序结果的可行性和有效性。     

ELECTRE TRI for Groups with Imprecise Information on Parameter Values

ELECTRE TRI is a well-known method to assign actions to predefined ordered categories, considering multiple criteria. Using this method requires setting many parameters, which is often a difficult task. We consider the case where a group of Decision Makers (DMs) is unsure of which values each parameter should take, which may result from insufficient, imprecise or contradictory information, as well as from lack of consensus among the group members. In a framework where DMs provide constraints bounding and interrelating the parameter values, rather than fixing precise figures, we discuss the problem of finding the best and worst category that each action may attain.     

A neural network unification

We study the relation between the asymptotic behaviour of synchronous Boltzmann machines and synchronous Hopfield networks. More specifically, we consider the relation between the pseudo consensus function that is used in analyzing Boltzmann machines and the energy function that is used in the study of Hopfield networks. We show that for small values of the control parameter, synchronous Boltzmann machines and synchronous Hopfield networks compute global respectively local maxima of the same function.     

To agree or not to agree? A meta-analytical review of strategic consensus and organizational performance

The premise underlying most of the research on strategic consensus is that a higher degree of consensus has a positive impact on organizational performance. Empirical studies, however, have produced inconsistent results for the strength and direction of this relationship, as well as for the role of potential moderators. With this meta-analysis, we provide empirical support for a positive effect of strategic consensus on organizational performance, and offer evidence for the existence of several moderators of the aforementioned relationship, which we then discuss as fruitful avenues for future research. This study enhances our understanding of this important strategy process construct and benefits managerial practice by discussing means for improving the realization and implementation of strategies.     

Convenient links for the estimation of hedonic price indexes: the case of unique,infrequently traded assets

Hedonic methods are a prominent approach in the construction of quality‐adjusted price indexes. This paper shows that the process of computing such indexes is substantially simplified if arithmetic (geometric) price indexes are computed based on exponential (log‐linear) hedonic functions estimated by the Poisson pseudo‐maximum likelihood (ordinary least squares) method. A Monte Carlo simulation study based on housing data illustrates the convenience of the links identified and the very attractive properties of the Poisson estimator in the hedonic framework.     

Strategic consensus mapping: A new method for testing and visualizing strategic consensus within and between teams

Research on strategic consensus focuses primarily on the extent of agreement among team members regarding organizational strategy. It does not include elements such as the content of the agreement, between‐group consensus, or the significance of differences in consensus (e.g., for evaluating the effectiveness of strategic interventions). We propose a new analytical approach, Strategic Consensus Mapping, that provides a comprehensive analysis of strategic consensus within and between groups and that includes intuitive and easy‐to‐understand visualizations. This approach offers researchers the necessary tools for integrative theory building in strategic consensus, as well as in the broader managerial and organizational cognition domain. Using a case example, we illustrate the proposed methods for a multidimensional, multilevel, and longitudinal analysis of strategic consensus. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Testing the Alchian–Allen theorem for three goods using the pseudo Poisson model

We show that the Alchian–Allen theorem holds in three‐good world. We empirically test the theorem by examining the relative demand for three quality‐differentiated coffee varieties sold globally and confirm that a common per‐unit charge increases the overall quality of coffee demanded. Our empirical specification employs the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood method, which prevents sample selection bias when zero flows between country pairs occur and estimated parameter inconsistency when the data exhibit heteroscedasticity. This is a significant improvement compared to previous practice of using the ordinary least squares to estimate the log‐log formulation, which led to both biased and inconsistent parameter estimates.     

Gravity models,PPML estimation and the bias of the robust standard errors

In gravity models with exporter and importer dummies, the robust standard errors of the slope parameters tend to be severely downward biased when estimated by PPML. The coverage rate of confidence intervals of the estimated slope parameters may thus be much too small in cross-sections of the size typically used in empirical research.     

关于内部控制判断一致性和内部控制可靠性模拟的文献综述

西方国家从20世纪60年代就开始研究审计人员对内部控制判断是否具有一致性及能否用数学方法来描述内部控制状态这两个问题，本文对这些研究文献进行综述，综述的重点在于研究的具体问题、研究方法及研究结论。     

Consensus formation during strategic change

This paper offers a refined conceptualization of consensus formation and demonstrates in three organizations how this conceptualization enables us to uncover new patterns of consensus building. It describes a longitudinal study which investigated consensus formation in three organizations undergoing major strategic change. The study explored whether consensus building occurred during the strategic change and, if so, how. Initial participants of consensus were also investigated as well as changes in the scope of participants in consensus. Consensus building did occur, but contrary to some views less through an increase in the strength of consensus and more through an increase in the scope of consensus. Additionally, initial consensus was not located among members of the top management team, but more within an interest group whose members benefited from the given direction of the change. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.