Economic progress and skill obsolescence with network effects

Summary. We construct an OLG model with network effects to examine skill obsolescence when individuals can choose technological vintages. In the absence of transfer payments, some regions of the parameter space have unique stationary equilibria, others have unique cyclical equilibria, and others have multiple stationary equilibria. All equilibria are Pareto efficient. However, rat race equilibria can exist in which all agents currently alive prefer a slower rate of progress than occurs in equilibrium. When contemporaneous transfers are allowed, equilibria are unique everywhere, but a cycle still exists, and a rat race can still arise in equilibrium. Allowing intertemporal transfers (debt) ensures that all equilibria are stationary. In the relevant parameter range, the introduction of debt can eliminate cycles and increase the long-run growth rate. No rat race equilibria exist when debt is allowed.Received: 3 January 2002, Revised: 3 June 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: 041, J24, O33. Correspondence to: Ian P. KingEarly versions of this paper were presented at the West Coast Macro Workshop, the Mid-West Macro Meetings, the Canadian Macroeconomics Study Group Meetings, and the Society for Economic Dynamics Meetings. We would like to thank V. V. Chari, Merwan Engineer, Don Ferguson, John Hillas, John Knowles, Dan Peled, Dan Usher, Linda Welling and Julian Wright for helpful comments. We are especially grateful to an anonymous referee for some very useful and substantive comments.     

中医体质辨识结合六味地黄汤治疗老年性阴道炎患者的临床效果

目的探讨中医体质辨识结合六味地黄汤治疗老年性阴道炎患者的临床效果。方法选取2017年6月至2018年6月沈阳市大众医院收治的老年性阴道炎患者104例作为研究对象,随机分为对照组和观察组,每组52例。对照组采用常规治疗方法,观察组在常规治疗基础上采取中医体质辨识结合六味地黄汤的治疗方法。比较两组的治疗效果,以及治疗前后症状体征改善情况、阴道健康状况。结果观察组治疗有效率为96.15%,高于对照组的73.08%,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。两组治疗前症状体征积分比较,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05);治疗后,观察组带下量(0.93±0.19)分、白带异味(0.65±0.24)分、阴道灼热(0.63±0.20)分、外阴瘙痒(0.71±0.25)分,低于对照组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。两组治疗前阴道健康积分比较,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05);治疗后,观察组阴道黏膜(1.01±0.38)分、阴道湿润(0.95±0.33)分、阴道弹力(1.32±0.34)分、阴道pH值(0.67±0.36)分、阴道清洁度(0.54±0.25)分,低于对照组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论在老年性阴道炎的治疗中,采取中医体质辨识结合六味地黄汤的治疗方法,能够提高治疗有效率,改善症状体征及阴道健康,临床效果显著。     

Model selection in random effects models for directed graphs using approximated Bayes factors

With the development of an MCMC algorithm, Bayesian model selection for the p ₂ model for directed graphs has become possible. This paper presents an empirical exploration in using approximate Bayes factors for model selection. For a social network of Dutch secondary school pupils from different ethnic backgrounds it is investigated whether pupils report that they receive more emotional support from within their own ethnic group. Approximated Bayes factors seem to work, but considerable margins of error have to be reckoned with.     

Nonresponse Bias and Stimulus Effects in the Dutch National Election Study

Bias is a much-debated issue in survey research. Answer effects (respondents claim to have behaved differently than they did in reality), nonresponse bias (nonrespondents differ on important variables from the respondents) and stimulus effects (by participating in a previous wave of a study, respondents change their behavior or attitude) can seriously distort the results of survey research. By using data from the 1998 Dutch National Election Study the authors show that the results of election research can indeed be affected by bias. Not only are significant effects found in the distribution of political attitude and voting behavior variables as a result of both nonresponse bias and stimulus effects, it is also shown that relations between variables change as a result of bias.     

山区工业化与山区环境协调发展研究──以浙江山区为例

根据发展经济学和环境经济学理论，研究山区工业化进程及其外部效果，剖析山区环境问题产生的机理和要素，探讨山区环境与经济协调发展的有效对策。     

注册会计师行业监管的若干问题研究

针对我国对舞弊的会计师事务所处罚力度明显不够的事实，监管机构应加大处罚力度，在确定合理处罚的基础上选择适当的监管力度，政府监管力度按成本效益原则确定监管费用的最优投入，决定监管机构的规模和大小，并完善相关的机构建设。     

INTEREG: A Twenty-region Input–Output Model for Italy

Since the regional scale turns out to be the scale at which fiscal devolution is likely to be accomplished in Italy, and that at which trade and growth interdependencies as well as regional convergence can be most conveniently investigated, a new 20-region input–output model for Italy seems to be a useful tool of analysis. Although various regional and interregional models have been constructed since the 1950s, none has been implemented for the whole system of 20 Italian administrative regions considered in their tight mutual dependence; also, the pool approach has not been greatly favoured, even in situations where direct information on regional trade is lacking. The main purpose of this paper is to report on the structure of the model, the rather complex procedure used in the model construction and the adopted solution technique. Some space is devoted to the problems encountered in handling regional trade endogenously in an input–output setting and to a comparison between the pool approach, used in the Italian model, and other current techniques. The paper also reports on some preliminary results regarding the regional impact of fiscal policy.     

Experimental evidence of gender effects in arbitration decisions

The study investigates arbitrator gender and arbitrator-grievant gender effects on the decisions of 146 arbitrators rendered on a hypothetical sexual harassment case. Gender was not found to have a statistically significant effect on the decisions examined. However, other characteristics of the arbitrator—level of experience and level of education—were found to influence the arbitral decision.     

上市公司偏好低现金股利政策的理论思考

上市公司偏好低现金股利政策,损害了中小投资者的利益,加剧了市场投机行为,降低了经营者的风险意识,已成为我国资本市场正常运行与健康发展的一大障碍。本文通过分析我国上市公司偏好低现金股利政策的负面影响和成因,据此提出相关的政策建议。     

上市公司过度融资行为及其治理研究

上市公司过度融资行为,严重损害了债权人和中小股东的利益,扰乱了证券市场的定价和运行秩序,阻碍了我国证券市场的健康发展。本文通过分析我国上市公司过度融资行为的负面影响和经济成因,提出相应的治理措施。