Estimating unobservable valuation parameters for illiquid assets

A problem that often arises in applied finance is one where decision‐makers need to choose a value for some parameter that will affect the cash flows between two parties involved in the operation of an illiquid asset. Because the values of the cash flows also depend on various unobservable parameters, identifying the value of the policy parameter that achieves the desired allocation between the parties is no simple task, often resulting in disputes and the invocation of ad hoc approaches. We show how this problem can be solved using an extension of the well‐known ‘implied volatility’ technique from option pricing, and apply it to the determination of equilibrium rental rates on ground leases of commercial land.     

中国银行业金融资产质量的区域差异分析

改革开放以来,我国居民的金融资产发生了很大的变化,金融资产的总量迅速膨胀,金融资产分布的差异也在扩大。本文分别从不同区域的角度分析了我国商业银行金融资产质量的情况。得出不同区域间的金融资产质量存在较大的差异。同时,分析了其中的原因,并证明了经济发展水平对于金融资产质量有一定的影响,但并非是决定金融资产质量的唯一因素,决定金融资产质量的因素比较复杂。     

人民币实际汇率的决定及其调整趋势研究

本文通过VAR模型证实了生产率、国内消费需求和国际收支状况等因素是人民币实际汇率的决定因素。虽然巴拉萨——萨缪尔森效应在我国存在,但是并不明显,我国长期以来的国内消费需求不足导致了人民币实际汇率的持续低估。在经济基本面因素不变的情况下,人民币仍将保持走低趋势,但是随着我国经济结构的优化升级、生产率的持续增长和国内消费需求的不断提高,人民币实际汇率将会趋于不断升值。     

依托增值税转型改革机遇促进中小企业发展

增值税转型改革于今年1月1日起在我国全面推开。本文选择作为经济发展中不可缺少的一部分-中小企业为研究对象,采用规范与实证相结合的分析方法,对增值税转型方案本身如何将不同行业的企业享受政策的差异性加以考虑、增值税转型后如何对待实行简易征收的小规模纳税人的税率问题、因增值税转型而对企业资金管理上产生的影响、过度投资对企业资金管理上的负面效应及风险控制等问题进行探讨。     

试论房价波动对商业银行资产的影响

基于次贷危机的启示,本文构建了在不同的金融发展程度下房地产价格波动对商业银行资产影响的理论模型,并在此基础上对中国的现状进行分析,指出当前对中国的影响主要集中于商业银行基于负债业务发放的贷款领域。进一步地,利用向量自回归模型(VAR)及冲击响应函数对中国房地产价格波动对商业银行贷款的影响进行了实证检验。研究表明:金融创新改变了房地产价格波动对商业银行资产的影响模式;中国房价波动对商业银行资产的影响主要集中在源于银行负债发放的贷款领域,但总体影响有限;中国应加快发展银行资产证券化业务,谨慎发展信用衍生产品。     

Asymmetric corporate exposures to foreign exchange rate changes

Research examining firms' economic exposures to exchange rate movements has not differentiated periods of foreign currency appreciation and depreciation when estimating exposure coefficients. Recent theoretical developments regarding real options and pricing-to-market suggest corporate exposures may be asymmetric (i.e., the financial performance impact of a foreign currency appreciation may not be offset by the currency's depreciation). Our empirical analysis indicates that for the small percentage of U.S. manufacturing firms exposed to currency appreciations or depreciations, their exposures are asymmetric. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Capital budgeting, information timing, and the value of abandonment options

This paper investigates how an abandonment option influences the optimal timing of information in a sequential adverse selection capital budgeting model. While the divisional manager has imperfect private pre-contract information, headquarters can time whether the manager obtains perfect project information before (timely information) or after (delayed information) the contract is signed. In the absence of the abandonment option, headquarters favors timely (delayed) information if the investment costs are high (low). The presence of the abandonment option favors delayed information because under the timely information regime the value of the abandonment option is zero, whereas under the delayed information regime the value of the option is positive.     

Tax and the Crisis*

Did taxation play any role in precipitating the financial crisis? Are there lessons to be drawn for future tax reform priorities? This paper reviews the main channels by which tax effects might have been felt and which may require forceful attention. These include in particular the large tax biases favouring debt finance and, in some countries, investment in housing. The complexities of national tax codes, and the international interaction between them, have, moreover, encouraged the use of complicated financial instruments and international tax planning, reducing transparency. Tax distortions did not cause the crisis – in the sense that there are no obvious tax changes likely to have triggered it – but they may well have contributed by leading to higher leverage and more complexity than would otherwise have been the case. Most of these distortions have long been a source of concern, but dealing with them may be more important than previously supposed.     

股票期权激励契约合理性及其约束性因素——基于中国上市公司的实证分析

股权激励是完善上市公司治理的重要环节。设计适合中国上市公司特征的股权激励方案并规避其所带来的风险是使其发挥作用的关键。本文以2006—2008年公布与实施股票期权激励方式的中国上市公司为样本,对股票期权激励契约的合理性特征及其内生约束性因素进行了理论探讨与实证检验,研究表明,激励期限与绩效条件是体现股票期权契约合理性的关键要素,除外部法律与监管约束之外,大股东、债务融资与独立董事等内生性因素对两者具有显著的约束作用,进一步证实了公司内部治理机制的互补效应假说,为上市公司股票期权契约的设计与实施提供有益参考。     

重新认识股票期权激励及其在中国的应用

股票期权激励是作为长期激励方式之一而出现的,作为一种金融衍生产品,国外许多公司将其授予股份公司的员工(主要是管理人员)。本文就股票期权激励的重要性、必要性和运行机理及适用范围进行了论述。