高频视角下创业板市场的非对称尾部风险度量

创业板汇集了大批高成长性的科技企业,面临着高度不确定的市场风险。本文考虑创业板市场的非对称性和厚尾性,在偏t分布下利用5分钟高频数据构建已实现GARCH模型衡量其波动率,同时考虑到微观结构噪声影响,在RV的基础上引入对噪声稳健的BPV已实现测度,从而提升高频VaR模型的预测准确性。对创业板指和深证成指的实证结果表明,已实现GARCH模型在参数显著性和模型预测准确性方面均优于低频下的ARMA-fGARCH-VaR模型;基于RV和BPV的已实现模型没有显著差异;相比于深市主板,创业板面临的尾部风险更大。同时,为更好地监测与管控创业板市场风险,从政府和创业企业两个层面提出对策建议。     

基于合约视角分析上海市企业年金政策的本质

政策是执行的依据。近年来,企业年金政策的出台,对企业年金在我国的发展起到很好的推动作用,当然它也存在一些缺陷和不足。文章以上海市企业年金政策为例,基于该政策所体现的国家和企业、企业和个人这两个合约的视角,对政策本质进行分析,发现其存在的问题,并提出相应的解决对策。     

数字经济对中国区域产业结构优化的影响

运用线性加权法、灰关联熵模型及耗散结构理论,基于产业结构合理化与产业结构高级化理论,对近年来区域数字经济发展现状、产业结构现状及区域数字经济发展对产业结构的影响进行研究。通过测算相关指标得出,中国区域数字经济水平呈持续增长的趋势,但区域间存在差别,东部省份数字经济水平优于西部省份。灰关联熵模型及耗散结构理论结果显示,数字经济能够显著促进区域产业结构优化升级。     

关系治理研究的发展及演化趋势--基于共词聚类与文献分析结合视角

文章检索2002-2012年期间国内外关系治理研究的文献形成样本文献,采用文献计量学的研究方法分析和探讨关系治理领域的发展趋势和研究结构。首先,对样本文献每年的新增关键词和新增共现关系进行统计,基于此分析了关系治理的外在发展趋势;其次,通过关键词聚类以及研究发展路径的构建,分析了关系治理的内在研究结构的演化;最后,综合分析了国内外关系治理的整体研究情况,并对未来发展方向进行了讨论。     

行业惯例、关系规范与合作行为：基于建设项目组织的研究

文章通过选取信任、承诺、沟通作为建设项目组织中的关系规范核心要素,建立了关系规范对合作行为影响的关系模型,并引入行业惯例作为调节变量。利用问卷调查和回归分析等方法与工具,验证了不同核心要素对合作行为的影响以及行业惯例的调节作用。研究结果表明,信任、承诺、沟通等要素对项目组织参与各方合作行为有正向作用,在表现为互利互惠价值观的行业惯例中,关系规范对合作的影响作用进一步加强,对信任与合作行为关系的调节作用最大,而对其余要素的调节作用较弱。上述研究结果将为完善建设项目的关系治理提供依据。     

基于OOPP体系下灰色关联决策目标分析的项目诊断方法研究

针对项目运行偏离既定计划或遭遇重大问题的情况,提出一种基于目标导向项目规划理论（OOPP）的项目诊断方法。通过该方法对项目进行诊断,找到问题根源所在并制定对应整改目标及方案。在对项目实际进行综合考虑的条件下,选取评价指标并通过熵权法改进下的灰色关联分析对备选目标方案予以评价,评价结果将为项目管理者的实际决策提供参考。     

The effect of relationship orientation on negotiators' cognitions and tactics

Multimethod research was conducted to investigate how relationship orientation affects cognitions and tactics of dealing with conflicts. In-depth interviews by a clinical psychologist revealed differences in perspective on the relationship, and content analysis of a videotaped laboratory simulation revealed differences in tactics attributable to differential concern for relationship preservation. A second laboratory simulation manipulated the duration of the negotiators' relationship to investigate the effects of relationship orientation when situational factors are taken into account. The results generally show that relationship-oriented negotiators tend to view relationships with the other party as continuous rather than episodic, adopt flexible postures, and avoid relationship-impairing tactics; they also show that situation can have a strong effect.     

基于灰色关联度的安徽省房价影响因素的分析

以安徽省2001-2010年房地产相关资料为依据,适当选取房价影响因素指标,引入灰色关联分析方法,构建房价影响因素的灰色关联度模型,定量地计算出各指标与房价的灰色关联度。结果表明:人口总数、居民消费价格指数、税收三大因素对房价影响最大,而住宅施工面积、住宅销售额、住宅投资完成额影响较小。     

The new growing paradigm of Chinese security perspective

Throughout history, Chinese international behavior suggests that security calculations have remained and continue to be an inherent force in the minds of Chinese foreign policy decision‐makers. Since China launched its open‐door policy in 1979, the way the Chinese think and assess the field has significantly changed. Today, the once widely supported realist approach is being rejected by a growing body of Chinese experts who now view the world as increasingly interdependent in both economic and security terms. This paper shows how the Chinese perspective on security issues has diversified and significantly transformed into a more interdependent viewpoint. Despite general skepticism over whether China has learned the inevitability of state sovereignty infringement in the globalization age, Chinese analysts came to understand and believe in the necessity of the security regime and multilateralism in the post‐Cold War period. The “new security concept” exemplified the development of the mutual security in the late 1990s. Whether the Chinese design based on the new idea will be realized is unclear, given the present security structure dominated by the U.S.‐alliance system. However, the new growing paradigm of the Chinese security perspective might play an important role in the process of building multilateral security institutions and regimes in the region, and participation and influence might be China's intention as a responsible regional power     

金融危机的应对与经济发展视角的抉择

为了应对1998年亚洲金融危机和2008年的国际金融危机,我们两次启动了拉动内需政策。这启示我们经济发展不能急功近利。应把拉动内需作为长期推行的战略,与经济发展的社会目标结合起来,与经济可持续发展结合起来。