Perspectives on representation and analysis of negotiation: Towards cognitive support systems

The rapid expansion of Decision and Negotiation Support Systems has been built mainly on decision-theoretic approaches. This has resulted in the decision maker being viewed through the lens of the problem. In this article, the focus is on the decision maker's view of the problem. Three levels of problem articulation are described. Special emphasis is placed on the needs level and the implications it carries for the cognitive and instrumental levels. The three levels of articulation, the organizational model of making decision in social settings, and the three basic approaches to decision making form the basis for computer support focused on understanding and change rather than preferences and outcomes. We argue that in the dynamic, interactive context characteristic of negotiations, a cognitive support system based on restructurable modeling provides a richer basis for support.     

汇率制度选择问题的理论之争及评析

汇率制度的选择是国际金融领域的重要理论问题一在对“固定”与“浮动”、“两极”与“中间”两种汇率制度选择理论上的争论进行评述的基础上,文章认为,汇率制度的选择是一个受多种因素影响的动态体系,汇率制度选择是一国具体情况的相机抉择,任何一种汇率制度都不可能适合于所有国家和一个国家的所有时期。     

Integrating Uncertain Preferences into Status Quo Analysis with Applications to an Environmental Conflict

An algorithm is put forward to conduct status quo analysis when preference uncertainty exists for at least one decision maker (DM) in a strategic conflict. This research integrates into a unified framework two recent expansions of the graph model for conflict resolution, preference uncertainty and status quo analysis. Both of these developments enhance the applicability of the graph model, preference uncertainty by accommodating uncertainty in DMs' preferences and status quo analysis by addressing the dynamics of conflict. The combination of preference uncertainty and status quo analysis improves the flexibility of the graph model in both modelling and analysis. A new model of an environmental conflict is analyzed to demonstrate how the new algorithm can be applied.     

Some orthogonal arrays with 32 runs and their projection properties

Screening designs are useful for situations where a large number of factors are examined but only a few, k, of them are expected to be important. Traditionally orthogonal arrays such as Hadamard matrices and Plackett Burman designs have been studied for this purpose. It is therefore of practical interest for a given k to know all the classes of inequivalent projections of the design into the k dimensions that have certain statistical properties. In this paper we present 15 inequivalent Hadamard matrices of order n=32 constructed from circulant cores. We study their projection properties using several well-known statistical criteria and we provide minimum generalized aberration 2 level designs with 32 runs and up to seven factors that are embedded into these Hadamard matrices. A concept of generalized projectivity and design selection of such designs is also discussed.AMS Subject Classification: Primary 62K15, Secondary 05B20     

从问题奶粉事件分析市场经济下公司的社会责任

从2008年轰动全国的毒奶粉事件到2010年再次爆发的问题奶粉事件,中国乳制品公司企业的社会责任备受质疑。改革开放以来,市场经济制度给公司提供了自由发展的机遇,但是市场经济呼吁法治,公司的发展不能违背道德和社会责任的制约。现行《公司法》将公司的社会责任上升到原则化,给法治社会的公司管理制度设定了活动准则,但并没有具体详实地做出实践性条文规定,故公司缺失的社会责任亟需通过社会的努力加强。     

高校危机持续期和恢复期的传播策略——以广西几所高校为例

以高校危机可划分为潜伏酝酿、发展爆发、持续存在、减弱消退四个阶段为理论起点,指出其中的持续期和恢复期两阶段的传播应对策略容易被管理者所忽略。继而从理论层面进行剖析,并结合广西几所高校应对危机的实例,提出高校管理者须在此两个阶段继续掌握传播主动权,整合各种传媒资源,持续提供全面详尽的信息;进行反思与评估,积极配合媒体,重塑高校的良好形象。     

转型经济国家汇率制度选择对金融稳定的影响——基于Probit模型和Logit模型的测算

文章以26个转型经济国家为样本建立Probit模型和Logit模型,将金融危机发生概率与本国的汇率制度进行实证分析。模型稳定,定量变量、固定变量和控制变量都比较显著,尤其是文章考察的重点——2个固定变量。结果表明,同时期在三种汇率制度类型中,固定汇率制度发生金融危机的概率最小。因此转型经济国家当前应该选择固定汇率制度,稳定国内金融环境。     

FORECASTING CURRENCY CRISES: WHICH METHODS SIGNALED THE SOUTH AFRICAN CRISIS OF JUNE 2006?

In this paper we test the ability of three of the most popular methods to forecast South African currency crises with a special emphasis on their out‐of‐sample performance. We choose the latest crisis of June 2006 to conduct an out‐of‐sample experiment. The results show that the signals approach was not able to forecast the out‐of‐sample crisis correctly; the probit approach was able to predict the crisis but only with models, that were based on raw data. The Markov‐regime‐switching approach predicts the out‐of‐sample crisis well. However, the results are not straightforward. In‐sample, the probit models performed remarkably well and were also able to detect, at least to some extent, out‐of‐sample currency crises before their occurrence. The recommendation is to not restrict the forecasting to only one approach.     

On the dominance of the Keynesian regime in disequilibrium growth theory: A note

This note shows that non-Walrasian disequilibrium models of monetary growth (which are rare) can be considerably simplified in their dynamics if appropriate flexibilities of market economies are taken into account that help to avoid certain types of rationing of economic agents as they are typical for the non-Walrasian modeling of macrodynamics. We consider and modify accordingly an established example of this type of model building and show that propositions on stability and the loss of stability of the then remaining Keynesian regime are much easier to derive and also much more transparent than in their original non-Walrasian setup with its regime switches right at the steady state of the economy.     

计算机日常维护和应用

计算机硬件的知识,计算机硬件的一般维护和使用时的注意事项,从而提高计算机的使用寿命。