国际油价波动对中国宏观经济影响的实证分析

运用格兰杰因果检验结合脉冲响应函数,来实证分析国际油价波动分别对中国宏观经济的五个变量——消费(C)、投资(I)、政府支出(G)、出口(EX)、进口(IM)的影响;同时,针对油价波动对国民经济各方面产生的影响,提出了一些建议和对策。     

A model for planning locations of temporary distribution facilities for emergency response

We propose a network flow model for dynamic selection of temporary distribution facilities and allocation of resources for emergency response planning. The model analyzes the transfer of excess resources between temporary facilities operating in different time periods in order to reduce deprivation. Numerical analysis shows that the location of temporary facilities is determined by the demand and supply points. This work contributes to the emergency response planning that requires a quick response for the supply of relief materials immediately after a disaster hits a particular area.     

基于缩短响应时间的供应链管理系统的实现

系统地研究了基于缩短响应时间的供应链管理模式,提出了四个订单流驱动的控制原理。以缩短供应链响应时间为目标,提出了基于Web的供应链管理系统解决方案。并实现了供应链管理系统的系统管理、客户关系管理、电子购销管理、合同管理、订单管理、仓储管理、运输管理和配送管理功能,该软件系统能够提高管理人员供应链管理的智能化决策水平。     

人民币升值压力的演进、成因分析和应对措施

本文分析了人民币汇率升值压力演进历程的三个阶段,并结合中国的贸易收支、国内外利差和中国的通货膨胀情况三类经济基本面因素研究了人民币升值压力的来源。分析发现近期人民币汇率已经不存在大幅低估甚至可能高估,无需一次性大幅升值。因此,中国必须认清升值压力的本质,继续坚持＂自主性＂掌控人民币汇率形成机制的改革路径,必要时可实施反制措施。     

湖南省国省干线公路路面改造中反射裂缝的处治研究

旧水泥砼路面加铺沥青砼面层非常容易形成反射裂缝。文章介绍了常用的反射裂缝防治措施。结合湖南省国省干线公路路面改造中对原有水泥砼路面处治方案,分析了原旧水泥砼路面处治方案对消除反射裂缝的效果,结合工程实例,提出了尽量少采用整体利用原有水泥砼路和尽量多采用共振机械碎石化原有水泥砼路面。     

用全站仪进行隧道拱顶及地表沉降观测初探

在测量麻竹高速公路宜保康隧道的拱顶以及地表沉降时,本工程采用了全站仪三角高程法,实践证明,该方法不仅具有快速、高效以及可靠等优点,其精度也能充分满足施工检测的要求。采用全站仪三角高程测量隧道内拱顶和地表沉降时,测量结果不仅能够很好的反映施工过程中围岩和土体的基本变化趋势,还能反映结果受到施工影响产生的异常变化,这些都是现场安排施工和评价支护稳定性的可靠依据。     

基于Nerlove模型的中国小麦供给反应研究

依据1981—2006年中国小麦播种面积、价格和生产成本的时间序列数据,应用Nerlove模型,测算了我国小麦播种面积对价格和成本的反应程度。研究结果表明:我国小麦播种面积对价格的反应程度短期较小,但长期较大,这说明小麦供给对价格的反应存在滞后性;与价格弹性相比,小麦的成本弹性要小得多。因此,制定小麦政策时,应在稳定小麦生产资料价格的同时,加大对小麦价格支持政策的连续性,以促使麦农形成对小麦价格增长的稳定预期。     

1980-2006年东亚经济波动的原因——基于面板VAR的分析

东亚经济波动及其协同性的存在已得到学术界的认同,文章通过构建面板向量自回归模型,检验了6种冲击对东亚经济波动的影响,并考察了宏观经济各变量在面时冲击时的动态反应,以及汇率和通货膨胀对经济波动的传导作用.研究表明,国内的供给冲击、汇率冲击,国外的利率冲击、需求冲击都会对东亚经济波动产生较大影响,汇率是外部冲击的重要传导渠道,而通胀是内部冲击的重要传导渠道.随着东亚经济一体化进程的推进和金融市场不断开放,东亚各经济体对外部需求变动和世界利率变动所产生的冲击应予以重视.     

International Spillovers of Output Growth and Output Growth Volatility: Evidence from the G7

This paper examines the transmission of GDP growth and GDP growth volatility among the G7 countries over the period 1960Q1 – 2010Q4, using a multivariate GARCH model and volatility impulse response functions (VIRFs) to identify the source, magnitude and the duration of volatility spillovers. Results indicate the presence of positive own-country GDP growth spillovers in each country and cross-country GDP growth spillovers among most of the G7 countries. In addition, the large number of significant own-country output growth volatility spillovers and cross-country output growth volatility spillovers indicates that output growth shocks in most of the G7 countries affect output growth volatility in the other remaining countries. An additional finding is that the duration of output growth volatility spillovers has increased over time from some seven quarters in the 1970s to some ten quarters during the recent crisis, which is likely to be due to the increased integration of goods and financial markets.     

Public trust and corruption perception: disaster relief

Public trust in government and nongovernment organizations is essential to the public’s willingness to donate and to support those organizations. We measure public trust in disaster aid using people’s perception of these organizations’ effectiveness in delivering aid relief to the victims of two recent major earthquakes in China. Based on the survey data collected in 2013 from about 2100 residents in Hong Kong, we document the vulnerability of these residents’ trust perceptions in aid delivery. We find that the sharp decline in trust perception is highly negatively correlated with their perception of corruption of local governments in China.