中国货物贸易出口量的影响因素--基于引力模型的极值边界分析

对外贸易是拉动经济增长的三驾马车之一,我国出口贸易对经济的增长作用一直非常显著,因此对贸易出口量影响因素的深入研究十分必要。本文依据国际贸易理论,对贸易“引力模型”进行扩展,引入极值边界分析方法（Extreme Bounds Analysis , EBA ）,采用2003～2012年省际区域面板数据,对我国货物贸易出口量的影响因素进行实证检验,得出的结论是各省外商直接投资、进口额、工业产值、固定资产投资、税收收入、最终消费是我国货物贸易出口量的“稳健性（Robest ）”影响因素,并据此提出促进对外贸易发展相关政策建议。     

降低大口径容积式流量计计量误差的探讨

国内原油长输管道交接计量大多采用大口径容积式流量计。尽管容积式流量计误差可控制在±0.2%以内,但受制造工艺和使用条件,以及流量计检定工况与交接工况的差异、油品物性参数变化等因素的影响,流量计的计量误差有时较大。以交接计量油量计算实例,探讨采用流量计系数修正的方法,降低容积式流量计的计量误差。     

上海自贸区离岸银行税收政策风险的法律控制

上海自贸区作为我国推进金融改革的新型发展模式,其离岸银行业务的税收政策在施行中可能会产生离岸银行业务优惠税制与我国现有税制的冲突、“税收洼地”导致“黑色经济”滋生、征管程序中出现“法律真空”地带等法律风险.而中国香港、新加坡离岸银行业务税收监管制度则体现出了低税负、高效征管的特点,有鉴于此,自贸区在对离岸银行进行税制创新时应当以税收政策的法定化、统一化为最终目标,协调境内关外离岸银行优惠税收制度与境内税制改革,建立离岸银行的国际化税收征管制度,以控制自贸区离岸银行业务税收政策的法律风险.     

China׳s information security standardization: Analysis from the perspective of technical barriers to trade principles

There have been many attempts for ICT standardization in China. Among them, this paper deals with information security standards. Although information security is often mentioned regarding China?s ICT standardization, it has been rarely examined per se. While most studies on China?s ICT standardization focus on economic aspects (e.g. increased bargaining power) or the government?s role, this paper draws on legal aspects. We select WAPI and ZUC for case studies, and examine their legal aspects, particularly from the perspective of WTO?s TBT (technical barriers to trade) principles. We have found that China?s standardization strategy becomes international-bound and, in fact, the manner in which the Chinese government handles standardization projects has become refined, flexible, and communicative with foreign stakeholders. We see that the changes are responses to the trade concerns raised by foreign stakeholders in various TBT Committee meetings and bilateral meetings. In addition, the Chinese government appears to become market-oriented even in the field of information security where it previously maintained a rigid stance on the ground of national security. This paper points out that the changes are attributed to growing external pressure from foreign governments and firms as well as to internal efforts toward innovation based on indigenous technology.     

“一带一路”倡议下中国与西亚贸易潜力研究--基于引力模型的实证分析

西亚地处亚欧非交界地带,自古以来就是丝绸之路的重要组成部分,广泛开展与西亚各国的经贸关系对“一带一路”建设具有重要意义。本文以中国与西亚各国的进出口贸易数据为基础,利用扩展的贸易引力模型分析了中国与西亚各国的贸易潜力,测算了双边贸易效率。实证结果表明:双方人均GDP、西亚各国的人口规模和区域贸易协定可以显著促进双边贸易,双边距离和中国的人口规模会阻碍贸易发展。据此建议中国在与西亚贸易往来时,应注重优化贸易结构、加强区域合作、发展港口运输和基础设施建设以及防范贸易风险。     

Agro-food trade competitiveness of Central European and Balkan countries

This paper investigates the level, composition, and differences in agro-food relative trade advantages/disadvantages for eight Central European and Balkan countries on the European Union (EU) markets and their implications for food policy. Higher and more stable relative trade advantages are found for bulk primary raw agricultural commodities and less for consumer-ready foods, implying competitiveness shortcomings in food processing and in international food marketing. Duration analysis shows that the EU enlargement has a negative impact on agro-food relative trade advantages for all eight analyzed countries. Estimations imply that the duration of agro-food relative trade advantages are the highest for Hungary and Poland, and for Bulgaria in differentiated products, indicating their agro-food trade potentials in the EU-15 markets.     

中韩贸易合作的产业内贸易效应：1992—2007

探讨了中韩两国贸易合作与双边产业内贸易发展的关系。通过对1992—2007年两国平均关税与产业内贸易指数进行协整和Granger因果检验。发现两者之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系：平均关税每降低0．01将导致产业内贸易指数上升0．27。由此得出,在中韩两国贸易合作进程中,随着关税壁垒的不断降低,双边产业内贸易将得到更快的增长,两国贸易合作的调整成本呈长期下降趋势。     

国际贸易中的动物福利问题研究及我国的对策

动物福利的出现,一方面是经济发展和社会进步的表现;另一方面,是由于发达国家和发展中国家之间存在着巨大的差异。文章对动物福利和动物福利壁垒内涵作深入的剖析,从市场准入限制、产业竞争力影响和贸易抑制影响等方面分析了动物福利壁垒所产生的经济效应;指出动物福利壁垒对我国出口贸易的影响越来越明显。因此,正确认识动物福利问题、增强动物福利意识、加强动物福利立法、建立预警机制、改革农牧业的生产方式、加大投入和依法抵制新贸易保护主义是我国应对动物福利壁垒的主要策略和措施。     

国际粮食价格危机的农业政策根源

2007～2008年世界粮食作物价格的急剧上涨的原因很大程度上要归结于各国长期的农业政策。从农业贸易看,农业贸易限制程度远远高于工业贸易,这不利于粮食作物产量在全球的分配;从农业生产看,发达国家和发展中国家完全不同的政策导向,导致了全球农业生产的低效率。应对世界粮食价格飙升最有效的长远机制是全球粮食贸易自由化,减少甚至取消贸易扭曲的农业生产和贸易政策。     

金融危机下贸易保护主义的新趋势与中国的对策

金融危机在全球蔓延,世界经济陷入低迷,新一轮贸易保护主义顺势抬头,各国贸易保护壁垒重新筑起,中国的国际贸易环境面临恶化的危险。文章探讨了此次金融危机下贸易保护主义的新趋势,分析了中国对外贸易面临的挑战,并根据中国的实际情况提出了相应的措施。