中小银行流动性风险的成因及防范策略

中小商业银行在保持高利润前提下产生流动性风险与其资产负债业务构成的不对称性、业务拓展的不均衡性以及主动负债能力弱、市场竞争力弱等特点密不可分,在市场经济不断推进、银行竞争不断加剧的形势下,中小银行应进一步加强流动性风险管理,优化负债与信贷结构,深化网点建设,加大货币市场参与力度.     

A method for reducing information asymmetry in destination–airline relationships

We propose a measure of business risk in air travel demand at the route level that can reduce information asymmetry during route development negotiations between tourism destinations and airlines. Aviation-exposed risk (AER) conveys information about the level of uncertainty with regard to air travel demand from an airline’s perspective. Using AER, tourism destinations and air service development teams can evaluate their risks from the perspective of the airline and its network. From there, an assessment can be made as to the value of air services in certain circumstances, including whether a direct underwrite or risk share between airlines and destinations is viable and necessary. By applying a portfolio analysis to an airline’s network, we find evidence that AER does indeed mimic the actual capacity distribution of the network. This provides support for AER as a useful risk measure to be used in practice.     

A rapid assessment of wildlife tourism risk posed to cetaceans in Asia

Dolphin-watching tourism is growing globally. In developing countries, the typically low environmental awareness of operators and poorly enforced or non-existent regulations exacerbate risks to wildlife. Ecological indicators like behavioural responses are useful to assess wildlife tourism, but obtaining such data is slow and expensive. We modified the Driver–Pressure–State–Impact–Response (DPSIR) framework to rapidly assess the risk of dolphin-watching tourism harming, displacing or causing local extinction to dolphin populations, using human dimension data to complement limited ecological data. We assessed industries at seven dolphin-watching sites in six countries in Asia: Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines. All sites have reached or almost reached financial saturation except Cambodia and Malaysia. We find high risk to dolphins at the sites in India and Indonesia and intermediate risk at the site in Cambodia. Pending more ecological data, the risk at Thailand, the Philippines, and Malaysian sites might be low. Our analysis also indicates site-specific conservation recommendations for Driver, Pressure and Response. We suggest that the DPSIR framework is useful to assess the risk of a wildlife watching industry, even when the impact is uncertain due to insufficient ecological data.     

经济条件、人口特征和风险偏好与城市家庭的旅游消费——基于国内24个城市的家庭调查

旅游者的旅游消费支出对旅游产业的发展至关重要。它是旅游者的经济条件、人口特征和行为特征等因素共同作用的结果。但国内现有的研究由于多采用宏观数据,缺少描述旅游者人口和行为特征的微观数据,对旅游消费支出的影响因素分析有失偏颇。文章采用2010年对中国24个城市的居民家庭进行调查收集到的旅游消费数据,综合考虑家庭的经济条件、人口特征和行为特征,以家庭为单位,采用广义线性模型定量研究了影响家庭旅游消费支出的影响因素。研究表明:除家庭资产和收入外,家庭对收入的预期显著影响家庭的旅游消费,这解释了旅游产业对宏观经济的变动比较敏感的原因。它折射的宏观经济意义是显而易见的:当经济不景气时,旅游业可能是率先遭受冲击的产业。反之,当经济向好发展时,旅游业也往往蒸蒸日上。以户主年龄作为代理变量,调查还发现城市家庭的旅游消费与家庭生命周期密切相关,当户主年龄在25~34岁时家庭旅游消费支出达到高峰。此外家庭的风险偏好也显著影响家庭的旅游消费支出。借鉴美国消费金融调查用分类变量测度风险厌恶的方法,文章发现风险厌恶程度越高的家庭越愿意将大部分收入用于储蓄,从而相应地减少旅游消费支出。由于家庭承受的风险多数无法对冲,因此提高风险厌恶程度较高的家庭的旅游消费,恐怕单靠旅游产业自身还无法解决,需要保险业等相关产业共同努力来创造一个较好的旅游产业发展环境。     

基于多情景的景区自然灾害风险评价方法研究——以九寨沟树正寨为例

文章采用参与式地理信息系统(PGIS)技术,模拟景区未来典型自然灾害风险情景,建立典型致灾因子强度与灾害风险情景对应关系;对旅游资源、旅游设施进行分类,分析游客居民景区内时空分布特征,建立致灾因子强度与景区承载体的脆弱性对应关系;最后通过拟合风险曲线,建立景区综合灾损模型并预测出多情景年均损失。综合景区利益相关方可接受风险,基于灾损和防灾成本进行风险决策。案例研究以九寨沟树正景群为例,模拟九寨沟在分别遭遇20、50、100、200、500、1000年一遇6种暴雨情景下引发泥石流的流速、流量和冲击力,建立6种情景泥石流与树正景群脆弱性关系;预测6种情景潜在损失和人员伤亡;结合可接受风险,提出九寨沟树正寨未来自然灾害防灾降险措施。     

基于动态贝叶斯网络的邻近下穿隧道深基坑施工风险分析

为了减小邻近既有下穿隧道深基坑施工风险及灾害损失,科学预防施工安全事故,提出了一种基于动态贝叶斯网络（DBN）的深基坑施工风险分析模型。首先,运用BWM（best worst method）确定准则的权重;其次,基于关联规则挖掘风险因素间的相互关系,并以此构建DBN结构模型;最后,以新建厦门北站地下一层社会连廊深基坑工程为例,对提出的方法进行有效性和适用性检验。结果表明：基坑围护结构的安全度在静态被评为“较高”和“极高”的概率分别为34.6%和36.1%,且此结果随着输入风险证据发生动态变化,运用反向推理也能迅速找出围护桩渗水风险;提出的模型能明确邻近既有下穿隧道深基坑施工风险传递过程中的关键风险点,并能进行动态风险预测以及事故后致因诊断,从而实现邻近既有下穿隧道深基坑施工风险的动态管控。所提出的优化DBN模型对工前风险评估、先验分析和风险诊断有较好的适用性和较高的准确性,可为邻近既有隧道深基坑施工过程中的安全管控提供有效的决策支持,大幅提高风险控制效率。     

基于系统动力学的危险化学品运输风险因素研究

为了降低危化品运输事故频次,规避危化品在运输过程中的风险,基于系统动力学模型,从人、机、环、管4个维度构建危化品运输风险因素指标体系,使用AHP法对指标权重进行赋值,结合风险因素间的因果关系构建参数方程,利用Vensim软件仿真模拟危化品运输风险水平的变化趋势,确定单因素变量值和人、机、环、管风险子系统权重的变化对危化品运输风险系统动力学模型的影响程度。结果表明：安全意识薄弱、设备故障等风险因素的变动以及人、机、环、管风险子系统的权重变动都会影响危化品运输风险水平,人、机、环、管4个子系统对危化品运输风险的影响程度从高到低依次是人、管、环、机。研究结果可为降低危化品运输过程中的风险和制定危化品运输事故预防策略提供一定参考。     

Risk Perception and Buying Behavior: An Examination of Some Relationships in the Context of Cruise Tourism in Jamaica

Cruise tourism continues to grow substantially, even as many other forms of travel stagnate. In this era of increasing worldwide violence against tourists, safety, security, and risk abatement are becoming principal components in travelers' decision-making processes. This work examines the issue of perceived risk and safety and what impact these perceptions have on shopping behavior. The research takes place in Jamaica, a country with a reputation for aggressive vendors. Findings indicate that those visitors who traveled with others spent more time shopping and purchased more. Additionally, it was found that first time visitors express higher levels of discomfort with their surroundings than did repeat visitors, thus inhibiting purchase behavior. Finally, it was found that levels of perceived risk and security did have an impact on a traveler's intention to return to Jamaica.