关于个人住房抵押贷款风险及防范策略的研究

我国个人住房抵押贷款虽然有了很大发展，但仍面临着各种风险。防范个人住房抵押贷款风险应该采取的策略主要有：进行房地产景气状况分析；实行用户资信评审制度；建立抵押贷款的保险和担保机制；实行住房抵押贷款证券化。     

智能车辆流量检测器的设计与实现

本文介绍了利用单片机如何实现智能环形线圈车辆检测器，讨论了此类检测器的软硬件设计要点。给出了相应的接口电路。     

Investment and technological choice in a right-to-manage model

We analyze the interactions between investment and local wage bargaining in a putty-clay model where the investment decision commits the firm to a particular capital intensity. This technological precommitment is used strategically in order to manipulate the bargaining outcome. We show that this strategic behavior induces a nonmonotonic relationship between the capital and labor demands of the firm and most of its environmental parameters (e.g., the bargaining power of the union, its minimum wage requirement, the capital cost). The results we obtain in our putty-clay framework thus contradict several conclusions of the standard literature on wage bargaining and investment.     

Epistemological foundations for the assessment of risks in banking and finance

This article presents the epistemological and conceptual foundations on which current attempts to model crises and assess financial risks are based. It draws a distinction between two research programs, in Lakatos' sense: on the one hand, crises understood as structural events within a cycle; on the other hand, crises seen as statistical tail events. The methodological, theoretical and practical consequences of such a dichotomy are exposed. A crucial difference lies in the assumptions about change in the causal processes generating economic outcomes, especially asset returns. Furthermore, this article insists on providing conceptual definitions of key terms that have distinct meanings within the two research programs.     

Country terms of trade: trends,unit roots,over-differencing,endogeneity, time dummies,and heterogeneity

The debate about the Prebisch-Singer thesis has focused on primary commodities with some extensions to manufactures. We analyse trends in country terms-of-trade for goods and services rather than those for commodities according to the World Bank income classification. We find that the natural logarithm of the terms of trade for all groups except for the poorest has common unit roots, but none has individual unit roots. As low-income countries have no unit roots over-differencing is inefficient and biases significance levels in first differences against the fall in the terms of trade. For the low-income countries the terms of trade of goods and services are falling at a rate that is significantly negative without and with endogeneity treatment by system GMM. A comprehensive analysis of the effects of time dummies supports the result of falling terms of trade for low-income countries. When all coefficients are country-specific 50% of all low-income countries have falling terms of trade in a simultaneous equation estimation using the SUR method. Food and financial crisis have no effect on the number of countries with falling terms of trade, but (dis-)improve the terms of trade or the significance of the results for a very small number of countries.     

A simple and general solution to King Solomon''s problem

An indivisible object is to be allocated at no cost to the agent who values it most. We provide a simple two-stage mechanism, which implements the desired outcome when it is common knowledge that the agent who values the object most knows that. At each stage of the game, all players have weakly dominant strategies. Moreover, if the two highest valuations are common knowledge, the second stage of the game is redundant, and the outcome is implemented in weakly dominant strategies.     

中国影子银行文献评述

中国经济目前处于"三期"叠加阶段,经济下行压力加大。随着2013年6月的银行同业"钱荒"以及2014年以来的一些信托产品违约问题的出现,中国影子银行受到了前所未有的关注。然而,关于中国的影子银行,各种观点对其内涵、范畴、影响以及监管等莫衷一是。文章通过全面梳理有关中国影子银行的各种观点发现,中国的影子银行与国外有着比较大的差异,影子银行的范畴并不存在通行口径。同时,影子银行是一个中性的概念,它的发展有利有弊,不能简单地与风险划等号。对于影子银行蕴含的风险,要疏堵结合,在规范中谋求长远发展。     

用风险价值度量固定收入债券的市场风险

笔者主要研究了固定收益证券的市场风险量化方法。在对债券合理定价的基础上,引入新型的风险监管方法—VAR(风险价值),对债券的市场风险进行定量分析。文中用三种方法(参数法、历史模拟法、蒙特卡罗法)计算了债券的VAR。     

The Home Bias in Equities and Distribution Costs

We show that incorporating distribution costs into a general equilibrium model of international portfolio choice helps to explain the home bias in international equity investment. Our model is able to replicate observed investment positions for a wide range of parameter values, even if agents have an incentive to hedge labor income risk by purchasing foreign equity. This is because the existence of a retail sector affects both the correlation of domestic returns with the domestic price level and the correlation between financial and non‐financial income.     

美国银行业资本监管演变与新进展

文章旨在梳理美国银行业资本监管体系的演进过程,通过时序研究方法揭示美国银行业资本监管的发展动态与脉络。研究发现,美国银行业资本监管与其经济发展趋势密切相关,经济繁荣期监管当局倾向放松监管,这其中有着十分复杂的利益攸关方的激烈博弈,而在经济衰退期,在金融体系风险的压力下,监管当局会收紧监管标准。从中可以窥见,上世纪20年代前的宽松监管与1929年大萧条,二次世界大战后的经济繁荣与70年代经济滞涨,监管加强,80年代初的放松管制与80年代中后期银行大量倒闭,90年代金融服务现代化法案与2008年的全球金融危机,交替出现的银行业监管放松与收紧的变化有着内在的规律性。研究美国银行业资本监管历史、监管体系和监管措施,有助于我国加强银行体系的风险防范,完善银行业资本监管制度和机制。