Are gold,USD, and Bitcoin hedge or safe haven against stock? The implication for risk management

This study investigates whether gold, USD, and Bitcoin are hedge and safe haven assets against stock and if they are useful in diversifying downside risk for international stock markets. We propose a combined GO-GARCH-EVT-copula approach to examine the hedge and safe haven properties of gold, USD, and Bitcoin. We then examine the attractiveness of these assets in reducing stock portfolio risk by using downside risk measures estimated by the proposed approach and other competing models. We also evaluate the relative performance of the proposed model in reducing downside risk with the competing models. The findings of the study indicate that the USD is the most valuable hedge and safe haven asset closely followed by gold, while Bitcoin is the least valuable. It is also observed that the proposed combined approach performs best in reducing the portfolio downside risk. The findings of this study are of significance for portfolio managers and individual investors who wish to protect the portfolio value during market turmoil.     

物流金融风险分析及防范对策

作为一种新型业务,物流金融解决了制造企业的融资瓶颈问题,为银行业的金融创新提供了条件,但同时物流金融业务也面临着许多风险。从物流金融的概念出发,讨论了物流金融的作用,分析了物流金融在实践中存在的各种风险,最后提出物流金融业务风险的防范对策。     

Forest management under fire risk when forest carbon sequestration has value

We develop a multiple forest use model to determine the optimal harvest date for a forest stand producing both timber and carbon benefits under a risk of fire. An empirical application is provided for a forest owner producing maritime pine in Southwest of France. Our results indicate that a higher risk of fire will decrease the optimal rotation period. On the contrary, higher carbon prices increase the optimal harvesting age. To investigate the contradictory effects of fire risk and carbon price on forest rotation, we identify the set of carbon prices and fire risks that lead to a given rotation age. We also show that forest owner's willingness to pay for a risk reduction can be substantial (37.33 euros by ha and by year to reduce the annual fire risk from 1.26% to 0.07%).     

从风险管理的角度控制物流风险

本文根据现代风险管理原理引入“物流风险成本最小化”模型对物流风险进行量化．并在此基础上对模型进行简化，从物流损失控制的角度分析了物流风险管理的决策方法。     

Valuing and Pricing Retail Leases with Renewal and Overage Options

We consider retail leases with landlord overages options, with tenant renewal options, with both and with neither. We illustrate how the ratio of initial expected sales to the sales threshold can be manipulated to equate the value of the landlord overage options to that of the tenant renewal option at the same initial rent. Not only are the values equal, but the cumulative distributions of potential IRRs on the two leases are nearly identical, suggesting that these leases are equally attractive to risk-averse investors and thus that the same risky discount rate can be used in valuing the leases. In contrast, the appropriate risky discount rate for the overage lease is calculated to be 75–160 basis points greater than that for the renewal lease.     

风险证券化的会计与税收问题研究——特定目的再保险机构(SPRVs)的视角

缺乏合理而明确的会计处理方法和税收待遇是影响在岸SPRVs和风险证券化发展的主要原因。进入新世纪以来,美国一直在试图改进对SPRVs的会计处理和税收待遇,但因各方意见不一而进展缓慢。本文回顾了相关政策的发展演变,在对SPRVs的本质属性进行深入剖析的基础上,指出风险证券化是传统再保险的补充方式,SPRVs是一类新型的再保险主体,应该为SPRVs和风险证券化建立与传统再保险相一致的会计处理方法和税收待遇。     

New development: New global health care PPP developments—a critique of the success story

Health care public–private partnerships (PPPs), where clinical services as well as infrastructure are delivered by the private sector, are coming under the spotlight as governments seek to achieve value for money in health budgets. Existing examples have been widely reported as successful. However, this article urges caution as a closer look at the evidence shows that handing over control of service delivery to the private sector is difficult to monitor and evaluate, carries cost implications which remain largely unquantified and can create additional risk.     

浅论准备工程的合同管理

在大型工程项目的建设过程中,加强准备工程的合同管理,对整个工程项目的顺利进行具有不可忽视的作用。章针对准备工程合同的特点,提出了加强准备工程合同管理的对策和建议。     

外债风险预警模型及中国金融安全状况评估

本文提出了一个用于预警一国外债风险的动态模型 ,即多元累计和模型。模型的用户 (债权人和债务国 )能很早地预测到可能导致债务国重订债务期限的金融危机。实证分析结果表明 ,模型具有提前 3年探测到债务国潜在的还债困难的能力。对中国经济金融安全状况的评估结果表明 ,模型可提前 1年发出预警信号。