考虑风险因素的第三方物流企业合作伙伴选择研究

在考虑风险因素的前提下研究了第三方物流企业合作伙伴的选择问题。首先提出了考虑风险因素的合作伙伴选择指标体系,其次采用层次分析法和模糊TOPSIS法相结合的综合方法对物流企业合作伙伴进行选择,最后通过案例验证了该方法的合理性。     

Forecasting for regulatory credit loss derived from the COVID-19 pandemic: A machine learning approach

The economic onslaught of the COVID-19 pandemic has compromised the risk management of financial institutions. The consequences related to such an unprecedented situation are difficult to foresee with certainty using traditional methods. The regulatory credit loss attached to defaulted mortgages, so-called expected loss best estimate (ELBE), is forecasted using a machine learning technique. The projection of two ELBEs for 2022 and their comparison are presented. One accounts for the outbreak's impact, and the other presumes the nonexistence of the pandemic. Then, it is concluded that the referred crisis surely adversely affects said high-risk portfolios. The proposed method has excellent performance and may serve to estimate future expected and unexpected losses amidst any event of extraordinary magnitude.     

Currency total return swaps: valuation and risk factor analysis

Abstract

Currency total return swaps (CTRS) are hybrid derivative instruments that allow us to simultaneously hedge against credit and currency risks. We develop a structural credit risk model to evaluate CTRS premia. An empirical test on a sample of 23,005 price observations from 59 underlying issuers yields an average percentage error of around 10%. This indicates that, beyond interest rate risk, firm-specific factors are major drivers of the variations in the valuation of these instruments. Regression analysis of residuals shows that exchange rate determinants account for up to 40% of model pricing errors, indicating that a currency risk premium affects the CTRS price significantly but only marginally, which confirms the prevalence of credit risk in the pricing of CTRS.     

Aggregate stock market behavior and investors’ low risk aversion

This paper studies whether investors’ high risk aversion can be avoided in a representative-agent model that is able to explain aggregate stock market behavior in the US financial market. We present a consumption-based asset pricing model with a representative agent who has a ‘catching up with the Joneses’ preference to show that high risk aversion can be avoided in a representative-agent model that can help explain many of the empirically observed properties of the aggregate stock market return, including the equity premium and risk-free rate puzzles, the predictability of long-horizon stock returns, and the ‘leverage effect’ in return volatility.     

基于层次分析法构建中心-卫星式产业集群风险模型

中心-卫星式产业集群是处在一个区域内的系统,其发展离不开产业集群外宏观环境,也离不开产业集群内企业的经济运行状况。文中对中心-卫星式产业集群的内、外部风险因素进行识别分析,根据内、外部风险的分类,分别对内、外部的风险进行识别分析,明确其危害性。在分类基础上,选择主要影响因素,基于AHP的模糊评估方法,提出中心-卫星式产业集群风险的模糊综合评估模型,使得中心-产业集群和政策制定者能够有效的评价集群的风险。     

42万t铬渣综合治理的研究及其环评要点

文章研究了原长沙铬盐厂42万t铬渣治理的要点,论述这类项目环评中工程分析的重点在于铬渣处置工艺可行性分析、污染物种类以及污染防治措施等特点,对42万t铬渣治理项目环境影响评价工作有一定的借鉴作用。     

浅谈大体积混凝土防裂施工技术

文章分析了大体积混凝土裂缝产生的原因,从工程实践中介绍了防止裂缝发生的措施,可在工程实践中提供参考。     

浅论越南水电工程总承包项目风险管理

中国企业在越南的水电总承包项目具有复杂性和诸多不确定性,存在巨大的承包风险。文章以越南昆江等多个水电站总承包项目为实例,对风险因素、识别风险、分解风险、化解风险等项目风险管理办法进行了论述。     

公司诉讼风险对审计决策的影响研究——基于异常审计费用和审计意见的证据

近年来上市公司诉讼风险不断攀升,对审计师决策行为的影响日益凸显。基于这一背景,系统探讨公司诉讼风险对审计决策的影响,分别研究公司诉讼风险对审计费用决策和审计意见决策的影响,并考察在诉讼风险冲击下审计费用决策和审计意见决策间的关系,同时结合我国制度背景,研究法律环境差异性对两种决策之间关系的影响。研究发现：公司诉讼风险越高,审计师收取正向异常审计费用的概率越高,出具非标准审计意见的可能性越大;审计费用策略和审计意见策略之间存在替代关系,即审计师倾向于在出具标准审计意见时收取正向异常审计费用作为风险补偿。进一步研究表明,在外部法律环境薄弱地区,审计费用决策和审计意见决策之间的替代关系更加显著。研究结论有助于合理解释和评价审计师的决策行为,对监管机构规范审计师的行为有着一定的启示意义。     

XBRL财务报告的新风险及其审计鉴证

本文认为,运用信息技术对XBRL财务报告进行审计鉴证,给信息使用者提交带有鉴证信息和安全可靠措施的XBRL财务报告,是XBRL能够成功推广应用的前提。会计师事务所或认证机构可以运用可扩展的验证报告语言(XARL)给出XBRL财务报告的审计验证报告。随着XBRL应用的深入发展,互联网环境下的审计鉴证业务将不断扩大,技术手段将不断创新,网络在线审计、持续审计有望实现,对审计师的知识更新和掌握信息技术的要求更高。