会计稳健性影响因素实证研究

以2009年沪深两市的上市公司数据作为研究样本,在Basu模型的基础上,增加了新的变量,以影响因素的替代变量为解释变量,对影响会计稳健性的因素进行了实证研究。结果表明：会计信息对＂坏消息＂的敏感程度比对＂好消息＂敏感程度更强公司规模与会计稳健性存在负相关关系,市价账面比与会计稳健性存在正相关关系,财务杠杆与会计稳健性的关系与国外研究结果不一致。该研究结果与国外的研究结果基本一致。     

DMAIC模型控制阶段关键输出稳健性设计和监控研究

通过运用误差传递函数来估计关键输出的变异,同时识别影响关键输出变异的关键输入变量;利用累积和控制图监控关键输出变化并对异常变化报警,以此建立关键输出的稳健性设计和监控方法,从而实现控制阶段真正保证关键输出长期满足顾客目标要求的能力.最后利用实例证明所提方法的有效性.     

风险度量的幻觉与基于模型的银行资本监管方法

《巴塞尔协议Ⅲ》将新资本协议的缺陷,看成是可以通过提高资本充足标准来改进的缺陷,没有系统地分析现有银行监管模式中所存在的问题。文章分析了风险度量模型所存在的一些内在缺陷,并指出,巴塞尔银行监管模式的基本假设——金融风险可以通过先进模型来准确度量,其实只是一种幻觉。文章同时指出,如果模型不能准确地度量风险,在现有的基于模型的银行监管模式下,更高的资本充足要求,只会激起银行更大的监管套利动机;更为重要的是,这种银行监管模式容易引发内生性风险,从而危及整个系统的稳健性。因此,在提高核心资本标准的同时,巴塞尔委员会应考虑如何更加科学地对银行实施资本充足监管。     

A new Cramer-Von Misses cointegration test with application to environmental Kuznets curve

This article introduces a new Cramer-Von Misses (CVM) cointegration test robust to nonlinearities. We characterize nonlinear cointegration in terms of a nonlinear moving-average filter (high pass filter) of a matrix based on permutation matrices on the discrepancy of empirical distributions. A Cramer-Von Misses (CVM) test statistic is proposed for testing the null hypothesis of two independent random walks against a broad range of cointegrating alternatives with monotonic nonlinearities and level shifts in the cointegration relationship. We derive the asymptotic distribution of this induced-order Cramer-Von Misses (CVM) cointegration test. This new non-parametric test statistic has two important properties: the invariance to monotonic transformations of the series and the robustness for the presence of several parameter shifts or structural changes. We analyse the small sample properties of this test by Monte Carlo simulations and evaluate the power of the test. Finally, this CVM test is applied to the analysis of long run environmental Kuznets curve which relates economic growth and pollution. In particular, we consider a nonlinear cointegration between gross domestic product (GDP) and CO2 emissions. Our new CVM test is able to find evidence of cointegration while classical single equation cointegration tests are not.     

一种改进基于瞬时无功功率的谐波电流检测方法

我国电力系统大多数处在不平衡状态下,文章对现有的基于瞬时无功功率谐波的检测方法进行改进,并采用瞬时无功功率闭环检测,使检测系统鲁棒性强、稳定度好.仿真结果验证了该方法的实用性及可行性.     

A Comparison of two Robust Estimation Methods for Business Surveys

Two alternative robust estimation methods often employed by National Statistical Institutes in business surveys are two‐sided M‐estimation and one‐sided Winsorisation, which can be regarded as an approximate implementation of one‐sided M‐estimation. We review these methods and evaluate their performance in a simulation of a repeated rotating business survey based on data from the Retail Sales Inquiry conducted by the UK Office for National Statistics. One‐sided and two‐sided M‐estimation are found to have very similar performance, with a slight edge for the former for positive variables. Both methods considerably improve both level and movement estimators. Approaches for setting tuning parameters are evaluated for both methods, and this is a more important issue than the difference between the two approaches. M‐estimation works best when tuning parameters are estimated using historical data but is serviceable even when only live data is available. Confidence interval coverage is much improved by the use of a bootstrap percentile confidence interval.     

M-tests in multivariate models

Summary For testing homogeneity in multivariatek sample model, robust tests based onM-estimators are proposed and their asymptoticx ²-distributions are investigated. FurthermoreM-tests in multivariate regression models are discussed.     

Locally robust contracts for moral hazard

We consider a moral hazard problem in which the principal has a slight uncertainty about how the agent’s actions translate into output. An incentive contract can be made robust against an $ϵ$ amount of uncertainty, at the cost of a loss to the principal on the order of $\sqrt{ϵ}$, by refunding a small fraction of profit to the agent. We show that as $ϵ$ goes to zero, this construction is essentially optimal, in the sense of minimizing the worst-case loss, among all modifications to the contract that do not depend on the details of the environment.     

基于Wilcoxon秩和检验的多元非参数控制图

在统计过程控制(SPC)中,对多元数据的监测仍然是一个重要且具有挑战性的问题。当缺乏或有限的关于潜在过程分布的认知时,特别是当过程测量是多变量的时候,非参数控制图在统计过程控制(SPC)中是有用的。文章基于Wilcoxon秩和检验结合广义加权移动平均(GWMA)控制方案来制定图表统计量,得到一个新的多元非参数控制图,用于监测多元数据的位置参数变化。文章的理论和数值研究表明,所提出的控制图能够为任意数据分布位置偏移检测提供令人满意的性能。     

编组站调度信息对阶段计划的影响及计划调整研究

考虑编组站列车到达时间的不确定性，研究阶段计划解体方案的鲁棒调整方法，以提高阶段计划的鲁棒性。在研究编组站列车到达规律及其对阶段计划编制和执行的影响的基础上，分析通过调整解体方案提高阶段计划鲁棒性的必要性和可行性；由列车解体最早开始时刻、解体最晚开始时刻以及待解时间之问的关系，推导出相邻列车解体顺序调整的判定条件；定义了列车待解时间调整量的概念，给出不同情形下列车待解时间的最大调整量的计算方法；基于解体方案鲁棒调整的概念，提出基于随机模拟和经验公式两种解体方案鲁棒调整评价方法；最后给出解体方案鲁棒调整算法。