中国股市趋向弱势有效之实证研究

本在对中国股票市场有效性的研究结果进行考察的基础上，运用有效市场理论分析了相关研究中存在的问题，最后得出中国股票市场正趋于弱势有效的结论。     

The macroeconomic determinants of technology stock price volatility

Stock prices reflect the value of anticipated future profits of companies. Since business cycle conditions impact the future profitability of firms, expectations about the business cycle will affect the current value of firms. This paper uses daily and monthly data from July 1986 to December 2000 to investigate the macroeconomic determinants of US technology stock price conditional volatility. Technology share prices are measured using the Pacific Stock Exchange Technology 100 Index. One of the novel features of this paper is to incorporate a link between technology stock price movements and oil price movements. The empirical results indicate that the conditional volatilities of oil prices, the term premium, and the consumer price index each have a significant impact on the conditional volatility of technology stock prices. Conditional volatilities calculated using daily stock return data display more persistence than conditional volatilities calculated using monthly data. These results further our understanding of the interaction between oil prices and technology share prices and should be of use to investors, hedgers, managers, and policymakers.     

Debt and Equity Characteristics of Mandatorily Redeemable Preferred Stock

Abstract. This study examines whether mandatorily redeemable preferred stock (MRPS) is priced more like debt or equity by (1) investigating its debt and equity characteristics and (2) specifying conditions under which one characteristic would dominate the other. Based on a sample of 113 nonconvertible MRPS issued during 1970 to 1990, our results are consistent with the view that MRPS has both debt and equity characteristics. The debt (equity) feature is more pronounced among nonutility (utility) issues. Within the utility group, we find high (low) rated MRPS issues to be more debt (equity) like. Our results appear to support current MRPS disclosure rules.     

Dynamic analysis of stock return volatility in an integrated international capital market

This paper examines the dynamic behavior of the stock return volatility for Canada, Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The evidence indicates that international stock return volatility is mainly influenced by the U.S. stock return volatility and the exchange rate volatility, supporting the international capital market integration hypothesis. There seems to be some correlation between stock return volatility and macroeconomic volatility, but the effect is relatively weaker. In addition to the economic fundamentals, the noise component is found to be time varying, confirming the AR(MA)CH specifications in the stock return models.     

股票增值权激励有效吗

股票增值权是上市公司对管理层实施激励的重要做法，在我国大型国有控股境外上市公司中普遍采用。本文以中国石化为研究对象，对实施股票增值权计划后的公司财务绩效、治理机制与管理层代理成本、股票市场反应等作了实证检验。本文认为，股票增值权计划对公司财务绩效提升、治理机制改善具有一定的积极正面效应；股票增值权在等待期结束后的开始行权年度激励效果最大；股票市场对股票增值权的行权存在着过度反应。最后本文提出了改进股票增值权激励的政策建议。     

另类交易系统的法律界定

作为一种新型证券交易场所，另类交易系统是一种以互联网为基础的，依据一定规则自动聚集并撮合投资者委托买卖证券指令的电子交易系统。它属于场外交易场所的范畴，与传统交易所相比，其交易对象更广，交易流程更为便捷，交易规则特殊，同投资者之间的法律关系也不同。它的出现，不仅对传统交易所和中介机构的地位产生了强烈冲击，而且对传统的证券监管体制和证券诉讼也产生了深刻影响。本文在国外对另类交易系统概念界定的基础上，论述了其基本概念和特征，以期为将来我国另类交易系统的立法和监管提供理论参考。     

基于EVA的股票期权激励机制探讨

在委托代理关系中，企业所有者和经营者的目标函数存在差异，由此产生代理成本，需要对经营者进行相应的激励。然而，基于传统业绩评价而实施的股票期权存在一些弊端。本文探索将股票期权嫁接到EVA（经济附加值）平台之上，提出了基于EVA的经理人股票期权激励方案，以期能更有效地解决激励问题。     

论股权配给作用于宏观经济波动的机理

当宏观经济进入衰退阶段时,由于融资企业的股权配给,融资企业投资的边际破产成本上升,这将导致融资企业的投资下降,在投资乘数原理和加速数原理的相互作用下,会使宏观经济衰退更加严重,宏观经济陷入经济衰退与股权配给相互作用的恶性循环中,宏观经济衰退的程度会进一步加大。当宏观经济进入繁荣阶段时,具有与上述相类似的过程,会导致宏观经济持续过度繁荣。因此,股权配给是宏观经济波动的加速器。我国的现实是,从微观上看,上市公司具有强烈的股权融资偏好;从宏观上看,政府进行股权配给。两者的共同作用,使股权配给具有平抑宏观经济波动的功能。     

管理层薪酬和持股激励效应的行业性差异分析--来自我国上市公司的实证证据

本文的研究以我国上市公司不同行业的实际数据为考察样本,运用实证分析方法验证我国上市公司不同类型行业管理层薪酬和持股与公司绩效之间的相关关系,分析结果表明:我国上市公司管理层薪酬和持股激励效应存在着较大的行业性差异,并提出不同行业企业应该根据自身特点和性质以及管理层薪酬和持股激励效应的大小,相机选择薪酬激励或股权激励,制定出详细周密、客观有效、切合实际的企业管理层激励方案,从而使其激励效应最大化。     

论我国机构投资者对股票市场的反稳定作用

运用数理统计的基本原理，指出导致近几年中国股市非理性下跌的最直接原因，是以证券投资基金为主的机构投资者超常规发展。在目前的情况下，不宜继续提倡大力发展机构投资者，应努力恢复股票市场对中小投资者的吸引力，实现中国股市投资主体之间的“生态平衡”，从而支持中国股市长期稳定和谐发展。