随机模糊神经网络模型预测铁水硅含量

该文在考虑了具有模糊化和非模糊化的模糊逻辑系统用于高炉铁水含硅量[Si]时各种噪声干扰的同时,把模糊数学理论和随机系统理论结合在一起,建立了一种新的高炉铁水含硅量[Si]的智能预报模型,该模型是由非单值模糊化、模糊规则库、模糊推理机、特殊非模糊化构成的随机模糊神经网络逻辑系统.通过结合莱钢1号高炉实时在线采集的生产数据,进行仿真研究,结果表明,该套模型能够很好地预测高炉铁水含硅量[Si].     

浅议高职院校的会计电算化实训

开展会计电算化实训是培养相关专业学生综合职业能力的重要环节,切实开展专项训练需要认清实训目标、调整实训内容,并解决一些现实问题.     

事业单位财务内部控制刍议

本文针对事业单位财务管理现状与问题 ,提出加强财务内部控制的四条改革措施。     

物业服务企业员工培训工作的改进方法

物业企业具有劳动人员密集、员工学历普遍不高、重复性工作较多等特点,物业企业的日常培训需发挥培训对业务发展和经营管理的支撑作用,坚持问题导向,建立日趋完善的培训内容体系,制定有针对性的培训方案,不断丰富方法手段,贴近业务与一线。培训要紧扣企业发展目标,要以服务企业发展、提升员工素质为目标,满足企业与员工的培训需求,为企业可持续发展提供人才支撑。     

Efficient markets and Bayes’ rule

Summary. A series of financial anomalies motivated the development of new theories that modify the rational expectations ideal. Two possibilities have been systematically explored. The literature on behavioral finance relaxes the assumption that agents form beliefs according to the laws of probability and assume, instead, that simpler heuristic rules are used. Another stream of the literature assumes that agents process information according to Bayes rule, but do not posses sufficient information to know the true data generating process. In this paper, Bayesian and Behavioral agents coexist and trade in a standard dynamic asset pricing model. A long-standing conjecture is demonstrated. It is shown that, under suitable assumptions, Bayesian agents drive Behavioral, non-Bayesian agents out of the market. Hence, asset prices are eventually determined under the Bayesian paradigm.Received: 3 June 2004, Revised: 17 September 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D83.Preliminary versions have circulated under the titles Markets Favor Bayesian Models and Market Selection of Empirical Models under Limited Information. I thank Larry Blume, David Easley, Larry Epstein, Armando Gomes, Bruce Hansen, Lars Hansen, Richard Kihlstrom, Grace Koo, George Mailath, Werner Ploberger, Andrew Postlewaite and Shakeeb Khan for useful comments. I also thank participants at the NBER GE meetings, Evolutionary Finance conference in Zurich, Latin American Meetings of the Econometric Society, Stanford Institute for Theoretical Economics, the Instituto de Matematica Pura e Aplicada, the theory seminar at Brown, Chicago, Harvard-MIT, Minnesota, Penn and Wisconsin. I gratefully acknowledge the financial support from the National Science Foundation Grant SES 0109650.     

上市公司资产减值方向信息含量研究——来自沪深两市2003年的经验证据

我国新颁布的《企业会计准则第8号——资产减值》规定,存货等已确认的资产减值不得转回。针对新准则对资产减值单向计提的规定,本文从资产减值准备计提方向研究上市公司资产减值的信息含量,发现资产减值的计提方向存在信号显示作用。这表明资产减值准备方向传递了公司未来前景的信息,全面取缔资产减值准备的转回将减少资产减值的部分信息含量。     

A note on the projection properties of Hadamard matrices obtained by the first Payley construction

We show that the projections on four factors of an arbitrary orthogonal array of strength 2 allow the estimation of main effects and two-factor interactions when all other effects are assumed to be zero, if those projections satisfy the bounds given by Weils theorem. The only exceptions are the Hadamard matrices of orders 16 and 24. A consequence is again the estimability of main effects and two-factor interactions for the projections on four factors of the first Payley construction for arbitrary run size.     

On the evolutionary edge of altruism: a game-theoretic proof of Hamilton’s rule for a simple case of siblings

We offer a game-theoretic proof of Hamiltons rule for the spread of altruism. For a simple case of siblings, we show that the rule can be derived as the outcome of a one-shot prisoners dilemma game between siblings.JEL Classification: A13, C70, D64Correspondence to: Oded Stark, ZEF, University of Bonn, Walter-Flex-Strasse 3, 53113 Bonn, GermanyWe are indebted to an anonymous referee and to Uwe Cantner for helpful comments and suggestions. Partial financial support from the National Institute on Aging (grant RO1-AG13037) and from the Humboldt Foundation is gratefully acknowledged.     

Voting in assemblies of shareholders and incomplete markets

Summary. An economy with two dates is considered, one state at the first date and a finite number of states at the last date. Shareholders determine production plans by voting - one share, one vote - and at -majority stable stock market equilibria, alternative production plans are supported by at most percent of the shareholders. It is shown that a -majority stable stock market equilibrium exists if where S is the number of states at the last date and J is the number of firms. Moreover, an example shows that -majority stable stock market equilibria need not exist for smaller s.Received: 23 December 2002, Revised: 14 June 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D21, D52, D71, G39. Correspondence to: Hervé CrésThe authors are grateful to an anonymous referee for helpful comments and suggestions. Financial support from the Danish Research Councils and hospitality of HEC is gratefully acknowledged by Mich Tvede and support from Fondation HEC is gratefully acknowledged by Hervé Crés.     

The effect of a magazine’s free digital content on its print circulation: Cannibalization or complementarity?

We examine how offering digital content affects demand for print magazines. Using a searchable website archive, we measure the digital content offered by a sample of US consumer magazines from 1996 to 2001. We find strong evidence that digital content cannibalizes print sales. On average, a magazine’s print circulation declines about 3–4% when it offers a website. However, the effect varies with the type of digital content offered. Offering digital access to the entire contents of the current print magazine reduces print sales by about 9%. We find no evidence that digital content complements print magazines. These results are robust to including controls for unobserved magazine, category, and time effects, as well as controls for the impact of contemporaneous price changes and other factors.