The analysis of unbalanced linear models with variance components

Statistical inference for fixed effects, random effects and components of variance in an unbalanced linear model with variance components will be discussed. Variance components will be estimated by Restricted Maximum Likelihood. Iterative procedures for computing the estimates, such as Fisher scoring and the EM-algorithm, are described.     

Firm size,credit scoring accuracy and banks’ production of soft information

Research on SME bank financing generally assumes that smaller firms are more opaque from a lender’s perspective. We propose that the discriminatory power of credit scoring models can be thought of as a proxy for firm opaqueness, given that when these models perform poorly, lenders must invest in the production of ‘soft information’ to supplement the financial data used in these models. Measuring the discriminatory power of probit default models across quintiles of the Irish SME size distribution, we show that our proxy for firm opaqueness increases monotonically as firms get smaller. This finding supports an assumption that is the starting point to a wide strand of literature on SME bank financing. Our findings can also be interpreted as providing an insight to the literature on the determinants of banks’ choice of lending technology. While smaller banks may, as found in a substantial previous literature, produce larger amounts of ‘soft information’ due to their organizational advantages, they may also do so out of necessity: hard-information-based default modelling is less effective among smaller firms, thereby forcing banks that lend to these borrowers to invest more in relationship banking technologies to retain competitiveness.     

概念图评价研究述评

从概念图题型、概念图评分方法、概念图评价的功能与局限三个方面对概念图评价研究进行了综述,概念图评价研究在国外开展得较为成熟,而目前国内的研究明显地存在着理论研究难成体系、实证研究比较匮乏、研究阵容过于单薄等缺陷,国内应着力于研究队伍建设,大力开展实证研究,建立与完善切合我国教育实际的概念图评价的理论体系．     

Consumer Credit Risk Management in an Emerging Market： The Case of China

I. Introduction By any measure, China is now the world hottest economy, with an astonishing annual real GDP growth rate of 9 percent from 1991 to 2003 and with the world’s largest population of nearly 1.3 billion people. As one of the world’s largest and fastest growing economies,Consumer Credit Risk Management in China87 ?2006 The Authors Journal compilation ?2006 Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences there are tremendous opportunities for glo…     

On iterative procedures of asymptotic inference

Abstract  An informal discussion is given on performing an unconstrained maximization or solving non-linear equations of statistics by iterative methods with the quadratic termination property. It is shown that if a miximized function, e.g. likelihood, is asymptotically quadratic, then for asymptotically efficient inference finitely many iterations are needed.     

Including the effects of prior and recent contact effort in a customer scoring model for database marketing

Database marketers often use a scoring model to predict the likely value of contacting customers based on their purchase histories and demographics. However, when purchase history has been a partial result of the firm’s own contacting efforts, these contacts should also be accounted for in the scoring model. The current work extends the existing literature to account for the firm’s contacts by focusing on each customer’s most recent purchase. Contacts prior to that purchase are designated “prior contacts” and those after that purchase “recent contacts.” A new latent variables formulation of the customer’s propensity to respond is used to predict the likelihood and time of response as well as the relationship to the independent variables. The methodology also addresses the statistical problems of “selection bias” and “endogeneity,” which have been largely ignored in most customer scoring models. An application to the database of a charitable organization confirms that, in this case: (1) the effect of the firm’s customer contact efforts is associated with a stronger propensity to respond than is the case for the included demographics; (2) the firm’s “recent contact” efforts are associated with larger returns in customers’ propensity to respond than the “prior contact” efforts; and (3) the “recent contact” efforts are associated with an at-first increasing but then diminishing propensity to respond up to a point beyond which actual decreasing returns are observed with further contacts. Clearly, too much contacting can alienate would-be donors. The proposed model is general enough to calibrate such impacts in other database marketing applications where the relative effects might be different.

创新型企业评选指标体系的构建——以厦门市创新型示范企业为例

根据国家"创新型企业试点工作实施方案",厦门市开展市级创新型企业试点工作,通过认定创新型示范企业,树立企业自主创新典范,推动企业加强自主创新能力建设。本文以厦门市创新型试点企业为例,构建厦门市创新型示范企业的评选指标体系,以促进技术创新引导工程的顺利开展。     

商业银行个人信贷信用评分模型的构建与应用

面对全球经济、金融一体化的现实背景以及随之而来的白热化竞争态势,个人信贷业务将是我国银行业目前及未来发展的关键领域。为此,文章首先从借款人、贷款方案、贷款投向和风险缓释四个要素出发,构建了一套产品水平的信用评分模型的整体分析框架,并将该框架具体应用于个人住房贷款产品;在此基础上,考虑到我国银行业的发展现状与评分模型的可实施性,设计了一个根据专家判断法的评分结果和定量模型法的评分结果进行相互校验的混合型个人住房贷款信用评分模型,并基于所收集的某股份制商业银行的样本贷款数据进行了部分验证工作,同时指出下一步的研究方向。     

考虑文化与环境因素的生态圈伦理构成研究

共享经济的发展使企业之间可以通过构建生态圈实现价值的共创共享。但是,目前对生态圈的评判仍没有十分规,范与全而的评价体系。对生态图成员从商业伦理的角度进行评价能够使企业规源会作风险,有放选择合作伙伴。基于生态圈及生态圈伦理相关理论,若虑多种文化和环境的因素,构建了包含4个一级指标、12个二级指标、49个三级指标的生态圈伦...     

What’s Causing Overreaction? An Experimental Investigation of Recency and the Hot‐hand Effect

A substantial body of empirical literature provides evidence of overreaction in markets. Past losers outperform past winners in stock markets as well as in sports markets. Two hypotheses are consistent with this observation. The recency hypothesis states that traders overweight recent information; they are too optimistic about winners and too pessimistic about losers. According to the hot‐hand hypothesis, traders try to discover trends in the past record of a firm or a team, and thereby overestimate the autocorrelation in the series. An experimental design allows us to distinguish between these hypotheses. The evidence is consistent with the hot‐hand hypothesis.