企业财务危机预警指标筛选探究

选择合适的财务指标来描述预警模型对提高预测的精度至关重要。运用显著性分析和因子分析法,对企业财务危机预警的备选指标进行筛选,并选择了76家上市公司为样本进行实证研究。通过两次筛选,最终得到由7个预警指标组成的全面互斥的财务危机预警指标体系,为进一步的财务危机预警评价提供参考。     

Cervical cancer prevention in Morocco: a model-based cost-effectiveness analysis

Abstract

Objective: Cervical cancer is a huge public health issue in Morocco which represents the second most frequent and fatal cancer among women. Countries that have not yet introduced the HPV vaccine could benefit greatly, but before implementation it is necessary to perform country-specific economic assessments that include current screening practices.

Methods: A Markov model was developed to simulate the natural history of HPV and cervical cancer so as to calculate the long-term health benefits and costs of HPV vaccination and current screening by visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA). Starting from a previous transition probability matrix used for a model from Spain, the present model was calibrated to cervical cancer incidence from Morocco. Cost survey data was used to estimate the cost of screening and clinical procedures from the public healthcare perspective. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated as 2018US$ per additional year of life saved (YLS) and both costs and health outcomes were discounted at 3%.

Results: The expected reduction in lifetime risk of cervical cancer for current screening would be 14% at a cost of US$551/YLS compared with no intervention, assuming VIA every 3 years in women aged 30–49 at 10% coverage. HPV vaccination of pre-adolescent girls at 70% coverage would reduce the lifetime risk of cervical cancer by 62% at a cost of US$1,150/YLS, compared with no intervention. When implementing HPV vaccination in combination with current screening, vaccination would be dominated, and the combined strategy would provide a 69% reduction at a cost of US$2,843/YLS, compared with screening alone. Current screening would be dominated by vaccination when screening coverage is higher than 15%, whereas the combined strategy rapidly exceeds US$4,000/YLS.

Conclusions: HPV vaccination could be highly effective and cost-effective in Morocco. Current screening would be good value for money compared with no intervention, but scaling-up screening coverage would make it inefficient compared with vaccination.     

Multi-dimensional contracts with task-specific productivity: an application to universities

Academics produce science and teaching which requires specific unobservable characteristics. Applying the multi-dimensional screening methodology of Armstrong and Rochet (European Economic Review, 43, 959–979, 1999), it is shown that universities optimally propose a menu of contracts to academics: high powered incentives for those who are productive and lower ones for other agents. In some cases, the university can write a single contract for both tasks to increase production. An academic is then expected to produce more teaching to show that she likes science, which is an argument to produce science and teaching in a single institution: universities. These results are discussed in light of economic, sociological and educational literature.      

The Role of the Global Reporting Initiative's Sustainability Reporting Guidelines in the Social Screening of Investments

Social screening of investments calls not only for investment policy and criteria, but also for information about companies, their policies, practices and performance. The Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) and its June 2000 Sustainability Reporting Guidelines have the potential to significantly improve the usefulness and quality of information reported by companies about their environmental, social and economic impacts and performance. The GRI aims to develop a voluntary reporting framework that will elevate sustainability reporting practices to a level equivalent to that of financial reporting in rigour, comparability, auditability and general acceptance. This will be a welcome and efficient supplement to the questionnaires, interviews, press releases, media reports and other sources of information traditionally used for screening in investment decision making – social/ethical and mainstream. The Dow Jones Sustainability Group Index, the Jantzi Social Index and the Innovest EcoValue'21 analytical platform, together with the SRI community, are all likely to benefit from GRI-style sustainability reports. One of the GRI's key challenges is to accommodate the broad variety of disclosure needs and expectations of a wide range of report users and company stakeholders. To maximize the usefulness of the GRI Guidelines, report users, including the SRI community, need to be engaged in the process of developing and refining the Guidelines over time. The GRI Guidelines are emerging as an important instrument in enabling companies to communicate with their stakeholders about performance and accountability beyond just the financial bottom line.     

Unpacking the interplay between organisational factors and the economic environment in the creation of consumer vulnerability

ABSTRACT

Access to credit is a key enabler of modern life. Yet many consumers face factors beyond their control which sometimes render them unable to borrow from mainstream lenders. This paper documents how firm-related factors determine lending thresholds and shape who is, or is not, a creditworthy customer. The impact of the 2008 economic recession on lending decisions is explored, an aspect that has been insufficiently discussed even though recessions are cyclical events. Drawing on semiotics and using multiple case studies, the study captures not only the groups that were excluded but also the reasons for exclusion. Empirical support is offered for the notion of vulnerability as a fluid state and the role of the timing of decisions as a source of vulnerability is described.     

振动应力筛选

本文介绍了振动应力筛选技术,讨论了建立振动应力筛选的益处,应考虑的主要问题以及应牢记的关键因素。     

Social Investing: Mainstream or Backwater?

Social investing, though not yet fully mainstream, has the potential to obtain such status. Questions relating to the future of social investing include the following. (1) What properly falls within the ambit of social investing? Assuming that no single definition of social responsibility is feasible, what then are the limits? (2) What do we need to know about investor psychology concerning social investing? What motivates people to buy socially screened investments and why do they sometimes act inconsistently? (3) How can we improve the measures of social performance? Is it possible to develop GAAP and GAAS equivalents for social reporting? (4) Should social reports by firms be audited? If so, how? (5) What sorts of public policies are necessary to support the social screening of investments?     

基于IO Server技术的Intouch与AB-PLC的光纤筛选系统

随着信息技术的不断进步和经济的迅速发展,市场对光纤的需求量在快速增长,因此迫切需要对光纤筛选设备进行优化和升级。目前,Intouch等组态软件在工业自动化中已经有了广泛应用,但在光纤筛选系统中却少见报道。本文详细描述了基于Intouch的光纤筛选系统的体系结构和软件设计方案,利用以太网IO Server软件建立OPC,为系统的监控提供数据采集接口。系统应用于江苏通鼎集团,具有较好的可靠性和鲁棒性,很好的完成了光纤筛选的监控工作。     

田湾核电一期工程堆芯干保护施工技术

堆芯干保护施工中,通过对蛇纹石混凝土配制设计、浇注及升温的控制,保证堆芯干保护在反应堆运行期间的主要屏蔽作用。     

Descriptive statistics of large data sets by scatter plots, an exploratory approach

In the analysis of large tables of M variables on N observations one is interested in the relations between the variables and it is usual to inspect the M(M-1)/2 scatter plots of N points. Clearly, the scatter plot approach relies on visual inspection and is to be preferred in so far as applicable to detect simple relations, namely when M is small. Other approaches are needed for large values of M .
We consider that only the relatively few scatter plots that present a 'structure' are of interest for an exploratory analysis and, by 'structure', we mean a domain of specially high local density in the plot. Based on this concept, we propose a method constructed around two steps: the selection of the possibly interesting pairs of variables and the validation of the corresponding scatter plots. The selection of the pairs results from an algorithm based on a binary partitioning tree. The validation of the corresponding scatter plots enables the production of only those where a structure is found the recognition of a structure is derived from a statistic based on the length of the Minimum Spanning Tree constructed on the N points of the candidate scatter plot.
For illustration, we report on an industrial application where the method is routinely applied for exploratory purposes.