逆向选择下的VMI最优合同设计

讨论了在基于VMI的供应链中,作为核心企业的零售商如何应用信息甄别模型解决逆向选择的问题。通过建立信息甄别模型并分析了信息对称和不对称两种情况下的最优合同,为零售商制定有效的激励合同提供依据。     

The Role of Soft Information in a Dynamic Contract Setting: Evidence from the Home Equity Credit Market

Credit underwriting is a dynamic process involving multiple interactions between borrower and lender. During this process, lenders have the opportunity to obtain hard and soft information from the borrower. We analyze more than 108,000 home equity loans and lines‐of‐credit applications to study the role of soft and hard information during underwriting. Our data set allows us to distinguish lender actions that are based strictly on hard information from decisions that involve the collection of soft information. Our analysis confirms the importance of soft information and suggests that its use can be effective in reducing overall portfolio credit losses ex post.     

Some Challenges of Social Screening

The ultimate challenge with which we are presented in connection with social investing is no more and no less than this: enhancing the function of conscience in the modern global business corporation. As with individual conscience, however, corporate conscience can be influenced in two ways: from the inside and from the outside. Investment decisions provide external influences, while management values provide influence from the inside.     

新产品概念

作为一个企业,其经营的轴心应该是产品,随着社会的发展和竞争的加剧,致使产品的生命周期缩短,更新速度加快,为此新产品就成为企业成长的法宝和命脉,企业必须增强产品创新的意识和能力。那么,企业应如何创新产品?产品的创新过程有无理论可依?有无规律可循?本文试图从产品创意入手,从方法论的角度,应用数学理论、物元理论分析产品创意的生成及筛选方法和过程,探索其内在规律性。     

锦界选煤厂关于堵筛现象的原因分析与工艺改进

筛分是煤炭加工过程中的重要环节,它广泛地应用于煤炭加工作业中的分级、脱水、脱介和脱泥等作业。本文主要介绍了筛分过程的影响因素,结合锦界选煤厂等厚筛运行中出现的堵筛现象进行分析,在分析问题的基础上提出了工艺改进的具体解决方案,同时给出了合理性评价。     

Excel高级筛选功能在招生录取工作中的应用

通过利用Excel中ISNA与MATCH两个函数的功能并配合高级筛选,实现了两个数据表之间的差运算,并将其应用到实际招生工作中,有效提高了工作效率,降底了工作误差。     

利用频谱排序和筛选的突变噪声快速估计

针对最小值控制递归平均(Minima Controlled Recursive Averaging,MCRA)算法不能快速跟踪突变噪声的问题，提出了一种基于频谱排序和筛选的突变噪声快速估计方法。该方法在MCRA算法的基础上对带噪语音的功率谱进行排序，筛选出不含语音信号的频点来估计噪声的平均功率谱；当检测到噪声突变时，对当前的平滑参数和状态变量进行校正。仿真结果表明，该方法可以将突变噪声的跟踪时间缩短90%以上；用于语音降噪处理时，音质可以提升约0.4分。该方法具有一定的工程应用价值。     

基于数据挖掘的CDMA2000移动网络防盗用技术

针对CDMA2000 EVDO移动网络中的盗用问题，结合CDMA网络无线宽带原始计费话单的 生成机制，对AAA的原始计费话单内容进行了分析和解构；基于数据挖掘理论和技术提 出了原始计费话单分析模型，从中发现话单与盗用行为的关联性，并通过编写分析脚本，实 现了可疑话单的筛选。最后，利用广东电信现网数据进行分析，对系统模型进行了验证。测 试结果显示，原始计费话单分析模型能够完成原始计费话单的分析工作，并从中找出异常的 话单。     

Forecasting,uncertainty and risk; perspectives on clinical decision-making in preventive and curative medicine

Should we screen the population routinely for the presence of breast or prostatic cancer? This simple proposition masks a landscape of complexities, including the economics of screening, the prevalence and probability of the disease, desired frequencies of intervention and a willingness to adopt preventive screening. These ‘risk factors’ form part of a broader landscape of uncertainty that characterises the intricacies of clinical decision-making. Deepening our understanding of the way in which clinicians evaluate risk and uncertainty requires a framing of insights into language, communication, psychology and epistemology. This paper explores perspectives in forecasting and uncertainty as a basis for understanding individuals’ perceptions of risk when assessing their options in both preventative and curative medicine. At the heart of the issue is the prevalence of diagnostic error; this paper argues for the use of systematised approaches to medical error management and inclusive approaches to research in the field. The advantages of augmenting the management of unforeseen consequences through an improved understanding of the issues that are of concern to patients, carers, and medical practitioners alike forms a key construct in this paper. We conclude with an exploration of potential opportunities for improvements in medical practice: changes that may reduce the disbenefits of uncertainty and enhance the management of the general risks associated with clinical decision-making.