Forecasting,uncertainty and risk; perspectives on clinical decision-making in preventive and curative medicine

Should we screen the population routinely for the presence of breast or prostatic cancer? This simple proposition masks a landscape of complexities, including the economics of screening, the prevalence and probability of the disease, desired frequencies of intervention and a willingness to adopt preventive screening. These ‘risk factors’ form part of a broader landscape of uncertainty that characterises the intricacies of clinical decision-making. Deepening our understanding of the way in which clinicians evaluate risk and uncertainty requires a framing of insights into language, communication, psychology and epistemology. This paper explores perspectives in forecasting and uncertainty as a basis for understanding individuals’ perceptions of risk when assessing their options in both preventative and curative medicine. At the heart of the issue is the prevalence of diagnostic error; this paper argues for the use of systematised approaches to medical error management and inclusive approaches to research in the field. The advantages of augmenting the management of unforeseen consequences through an improved understanding of the issues that are of concern to patients, carers, and medical practitioners alike forms a key construct in this paper. We conclude with an exploration of potential opportunities for improvements in medical practice: changes that may reduce the disbenefits of uncertainty and enhance the management of the general risks associated with clinical decision-making.     

基于Copula函数特征筛选的电力物资供应商投标价格预测

分析电力物资供应商投标价格特征是招标企业估计投标价格并制定合理采购策略的基础.传统的Spearmen秩相关系数特征筛选方法只单纯考虑了特征的数值排列顺序,不能挖掘特征变量与目标的内在关联关系,会导致预测效果差.本文在电力企业招标价格预测建模中引入Copula函数,通过特征变量与目标变量的联合概率分布来分析变量间的相依关系.首先确定特征变量与目标变量的边缘分布,进行Copula参数估计,选取合适的Copula函数并计算相关系数来筛选供应商投标价格的特征,并以多种预测方法进行预测来验证引入Copula函数后预测精度是否提升.结果表明,引入Copula函数进行特征筛选后,预测精度更高、效果更好.     

人力资本定价的逆向选择问题研究

本文首先描述了人力资本定价中的逆向选择问题的产生原因及其结果。其次，通过引入人才市场，独立董事和剩余索取权分享，研究了不完全信息重复博弈，信号传递博弈和信息甄别博弈三种解决人力资本定价的逆向选择问题的方法，并从中得到了一些有益的启示。     

Ethics and Genetics: Susceptibility Testing in the Workplace

Genetic testing in the workplace is a technology both full of promise and fraught with ethical peril. Though not yet common, it is likely to become increasingly so. We survey the key arguments in favour of such testing, along with the most significant ethical worries. We further propose a set of pragmatic criteria, which, if met, would make it permissible for employers to offer (but not to require) workplace genetic testing.     

信号理论研究综述

为解决信息不对称引发的逆向选择问题，信号理论应运而生。这一理论主要包括信号发送理论和信号甄别理论。综观现有研究成果，目前信号理论的发展主要体现在：从两种类型的局中人拓展到多种类型的局中人；从静态研究到动态研究；前提假设不断放松；研究越来越接近现实生活的实际情况并在产业组织、金融市场和劳动力市场等领域得到广泛应用。     

提高境外输入新冠肺炎口岸流行病学筛查能力研究

今年3月以来,全球新冠肺炎确诊病例数急剧增加,此时严防境外输入风险成为当前我国海关的重要任务。本文通过对境外新冠肺炎疫情现状、口岸流行病学筛查防疫情况进行分析,提出相应的改进措施及建议,从而提高海关人员的流行病学筛查能力。     

银行财务信息对价值股票是否具有甄别效应?

基于资产定价理论,构建财务信息基本面分析模型,考量商业银行财务报表信息所构建的投资组合是否能获得超额收益。结果表明,从盈利性、稳健性和增长性三个维度构建的基本面分析指标B-score_China,对当期银行股票收益和未来股票收益具有较强的解释能力,且该能力主要来自商业银行的稳健性。进一步分析表明,B-score_China策略对规模较大、分析师跟踪较少、换手率更低的银行具有更强的甄别效应。     

牛奶中丙酸杆菌的筛选与鉴定

为了研究牛奶中丙酸杆菌的筛选与鉴定方法。本文运用高效液相色谱法对分离纯化后的丙酸杆菌进行定量转化,完成筛选和鉴定方法设计。结果表明,在牛奶制备样品中能筛选出不同形态的丙酸杆菌,且产生丙酸的效果有所增加,利用牛奶作为培养基可促进丙酸的生成;以葡萄糖作为培养基,在240 h内生成的丙酸含量为7.0 g·L-1。     

An airport operations proposal for a pandemic-free air travel

The aviation industry needs to work on the resilience of air travel against health threats and regain passenger trust. This paper proposes a pandemic-free travel concept based on creating an infectious diseases free zone in the airport terminal building through screening of passengers, crews and airport workers. This research shows that infectious disease detection methods applicable at the airport could be available in a short timeframe, at affordable cost and in scale. The potential location of passenger health screening, facilitation requirements, health responsibilities delegation and appropriate usage of industry standards for regulations are key elements to a potential implementation that would be phased and long term.     

When your resume is (not) turning you down: Modelling ethnic bias in resume screening

Resume screening is the first hurdle applicants typically face when they apply for a job. Despite the many empirical studies showing bias at the resume‐screening stage, fairness at this funnelling stage has not been reviewed systematically. In this paper, a three‐stage model of biased resume screening is presented. We first discuss relevant theoretical perspectives (e.g., job market signalling and impression formation theories) to explain why resume screening is vulnerable to biased decision‐making and ethnic discrimination in particular. On the basis of the best available evidence, we consider contingencies of ethnic discrimination in the applicant, the decision‐maker, and the broader context (e.g., organisation), as well as the effectiveness of interventions that might counter ethnic bias in resume screening. The paper ends with a critical agenda for further research and practice.