主题公园游客满意度曲线研究——以深圳欢乐谷为例

游客量直接决定主题公园的经营绩效,游客满意度是影响游客量的关键要素之一。本文首先通过对深圳华侨城三大主题公园的预调研,构建了主题公园游客满意度曲线模型;然后以深圳欢乐谷为例,通过回归分析,对主题公园的游客满意度曲线进行了拟合检验,发现主题公园的游客满意度曲线表现为倒U形。为了使主题公园经营者能够有效地利用倒U形模型,本文将游客满意度曲线划分为5个区间,针对每个区间给出了提高游客满意度水平的策略,为主题公园稳定游客量提供了理论依据。     

乡村旅游偏好差异测量研究:基于离散选择模型

消费者偏好分析是进行产品开发、市场营销的基础,本文运用离散选择模型中的Multinomial logit(MNL)模型,分析旅游消费者在产品选择过程中,其个人特征及行为特征对某类旅游产品偏好的影响。通过大连乡村旅游消费者产品选择行为的实证研究,表明乡村旅游消费者对不同类别产品的偏好,会随着消费者个人特征和行为特征的不同而发生变化。MNL模型能较为合理地解释乡村旅游者个人特征和行为特征与乡村旅游产品选择偏好之间的关系。     

Gay tourism in a sun and beach destination

Gay tourism is seen as an attractive business opportunity for many destinations. However, there is a lack of research at identifying the resources necessary for success in this type of tourism. This work is aimed at filling this gap by using the premises of the resource based view and transfers them to the analysis of territories to identify the valuable resources that are required for a sun and beach destination to attract gay tourists. To this end, this study has focused on a gay tourism sub niche, tourists lodged in gay-exclusive resorts in Gran Canaria. In order to confirm the validity of this approach, the relationship between the satisfaction of gay tourists and the condition of the valuable resources was studied by means of a robust statistical new method, namely Bayesian model averaging. That method permits the inclusion of uncertainty in the theoretical models that determine destination competitiveness, thus reducing many of the problems that arise in the application of the more conventional statistical methods in this type of analysis.     

The impacts of international tourism demand on economic growth of small economies dependent on tourism

This paper studies the impacts on economic growth of a small tourism-driven economy caused by an increase in the growth rate of international tourism demand. We present a formal model and empirical evidence. The ingredients of the dynamic model are a large population of intertemporally optimizing agents and an AK technology representing tourism production. The model shows that an increase in the growth of tourism demand leads to transitional dynamics with gradually increasing economic growth and increasing terms of trade. In our empirical application, an econometric methodology is applied to annual data of Antigua and Barbuda from 1970 to 2008. We perform a cointegration analysis to look for the existence of a long-run relationship among variables of economic growth, international tourism earnings and the real exchange rate. The exercise confirms the theoretical findings.     

国家形象与目的地形象：概念的异同和整合的可能

国家形象是国际商务和国际营销领域的重要概念,目的地形象是旅游领域的重要概念。在竞争日益激烈的全球化市场上,国家形象和目的地形象对于产品和旅游目的地获得竞争优势具有重要的战略价值。目前,国家形象和目的地形象研究基本上是独立的,文章在全面回顾两个领域最新研究进展的基础上,分析两概念定义、理论基础、形象主体和客体、形象内容等方面的异同;根据对国家形象、目的地形象与旅游研究中的其他社会心理变量之间关系的分析,提出整合这些变量的旅游意向模型以及相应的三个命题,以引导下一步的实证研究。     

关于旅游合同示范文本的法律思考

旅游合同示范文本由旅游局和工商局联合制定推广,性质上属行政指导,具有效率、安全、优先及补充等法律价值,示范文本条款分四大功能模块,由通用条款和协议条款组成。目前示范文本是多级制定,种类单一,权威性不高,文章提出完善和丰富示范文本种类和内容、统一示范文本和示范文本备案豁免等建议,以提升旅行社使用示范文本的积极性,发挥示范文本的作用。     

Survival on the Titanic: Illustrating Wald and Lagrange Multiplier Tests for Proportions and Logits

Abstract: Students are interested in lecture examples and class exercises involving data connected to the maiden voyage and the sinking of the liner Titanic. Information on the passengers and their fate can be used to explore relationships between various tests for differences in survival rates between different groups of passengers. Among the concepts the authors examined are tests for differences of proportions using a normal distribution, a chi-square test for independence, a test for the equality of two logits, and a test for the significance of the coefficient of a binary variable in logit model. The authors examined the relationship between Wald and Lagrange Multiplier test statistics and give two related examples.     

人民币汇率预测及方法选择——基于ARIMA与GARCH模型

自2005年7月人民币汇率改革以来,人民币持续升值,已影响到经济生活的各个方面,正确分析与预测汇价及其波动对各经济主体金融政策与投融资决策的制定有着十分重要的意义。本文选取国内外学者较为认同的ARIMA和GARCH模型对人民币美元汇率建模,并对其预测误差进行分析,结果表明在对人民币兑美元中间价的预测中,GARCH模型预测相对ARIMA模型更优。     

中国经济增长的可能性:一种基于修正的索洛模型的估算

索洛模型这一经典的经济增长模型有它无可比拟的优点,但对于考察中国问题来说,也有一些内在缺陷.本文根据中国经济增长的特征事实,对索洛模型做出了一些修正,并据此对中国经济增长的可能性进行了重新估算.     

Impact of Donald Trump’s tariff increase against Chinese imports on global economy: Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model

Donald Trump’s presidential campaign contains several trade protectionism plans. This paper aims to analyze possible global impact of United States’ plan to impose import tariff increase against China. The GTAP model is implemented. The simulations present possible short-run effects of full-protection and manufacturing-only protection with appropriate retaliation response from China. The policy might lead to GDP, terms-of-trade, and welfare decline in United States and China; and an increase in trade balance for United States. Trade diversion pattern is observed in the simulation results, predicting shrinking bilateral trade between the two countries and increasing export toward their third trading partners.