Dynamic R&D choice and the impact of the firm's financial strength

ABSTRACT

This article investigates how a firm's financial strength affects its dynamic decision to invest in R&D. We estimate a dynamic model of R&D choice using data for German firms in high-tech manufacturing industries. The model incorporates a measure of the firm's financial strength, derived from its credit rating, which is shown to lead to substantial differences in estimates of the costs and expected long-run benefits from R&D investment. Financially strong firms have a higher probability of generating innovations from their R&D investment, and the innovations have a larger impact on productivity and profits. Averaging across all firms, the long-run benefit of investing in R&D equals 6.6% of firm value. It ranges from 11.6% for firms in a strong financial position to 2.3% for firms in a weaker financial position.     

The nonobserved economy in the European Union

To better understand the share of the nonobserved economy (NOE) in the European Union, especially on the PIIGS, we estimate, through the multiple indicators multiple causes model, the path between 1980 and 2013. The model includes (i) the tax burden (disaggregated into direct and indirect taxes), a proxy of regulation burden, the unemployment rate and self-employment as causes of the NOE economy; (ii) the GDP and the labour force participation ratio as indicators of the NOE economy. In particular, the estimated weight of NOE as a percentage of official GDP was always higher in the PIIGS group.     

Experts,firms, consumers or even hard data? Forecasting employment in Germany

In this article, we forecast employment growth for Germany with data for the period from November 2008 to November 2015. Hutter and Weber (2015) introduced an innovative unemployment indicator and evaluated the performance of several leading indicators, including the Ifo Employment Barometer (IEB), to predict unemployment changes. Since the IEB focuses on employment growth instead of unemployment developments, we mirror the study by Hutter and Weber (2015). It turns out that in our case, and in contrast to their article, the IEB outperforms their newly developed indicator. Additionally, consumers’ unemployment expectations and hard data such as new orders exhibit a high forecasting accuracy.     

马来西亚华商的价值观、经营模式与社会义务

以杂货店为研究对象,研究马来西亚华商的价值观,探讨从清代以在马来西亚的传统华人杂货商,致富成功与企业价值观、经营模式的最初渊源,提炼出传统儒家价值观、忠、信、义对其成功致富的意义.     

江苏高校大学生创业意愿及其影响因素研究——基于有序Logistic模型的实证分析

研究大学生创业意愿的影响因素,有利于了解大学生动态,以创业带动就业,从而缓解大学生就业问题。运用江苏省四个市5所学校的调研数据,利用SPSS22.0软件,基于有序Logistic回归模型,从个人特征、创业认知、创业资源、创业环境、创业动机等5个方面28个解释变量,对大学生创业意愿先后进行单因素与多因素实证分析,发现创业环境满意度与创业意愿负相关,其他四个方面与创业意愿为正相关关系。在此基础上,对提高大学生创业意愿提出对策建议。     

基于VAR模型的文化消费与文化产业发展的实证研究

基于VAR模型对我国2005-2015年文化消费与文化产业发展的关系进行了脉冲响应分析,研究结论显示：①我国文化消费与文化产业发展之间存在长期的协整关系;②两者彼此呈现出正的脉冲响应,但文化产业发展变动对文化消费冲击的影响相对较弱,而文化消费变动对文化产业发展冲击的影响则更大。鉴于此,尝试从提高居民收入、引导并树立正确文化消费观念以及开发满足大众需求的文化产品三个方面来扩大我国居民文化消费需求水平,从而更好地推动我国文化产业的发展。     

博弈视角下中国制造业创新绩效评价与提升路径研究

利用改进的博弈交叉效率模型和博弈交叉Malmquist指数模型,测算了2012-2015年中国28个制造业行业创新绩效。主要结论有：①从静态分析结果看,中国制造业创新绩效总体上比较低,且不同制造业行业的创新绩效差异明显。②从动态分析结果看,中国制造业创新的Malmquist指数处于负增长状态,而且有进一步下降的趋势。③中国制造业创新的Malmquist指数增长乏力的根源在于技术变化指数比较低。④不同制造业行业创新的Malmquist指数及其驱动因素差异明显。为此,需从技术进步水平提升、落后产能化解、行业创新资源配置方式优化等方面,进一步提升中国制造业创新绩效。     

全球能源互联网背景下国家电网公司全球治理路径设计与优化研究

全球能源互联网背景下国家电网公司全球治理面临新的挑战,包括：竞争决策机制的本源性、制度环境的复杂性、制度建设的急迫性和利益相关者需求多元性。基于以上挑战和国家电网公司实际情况,从治理模式国际化、治理结构本土化、治理制度现代化和治理措施权变化四方面构建了国家电网公司全球治理路径优化模型,对提升国家电网公司全球治理效率、促进全球能源互联网计划顺利实施有积极价值。     

基于指数平滑法的组合模型对住房需求量的预测研究

以哈尔滨市2000—2015年的城市人均住房使用面积和总人口数为基础,分别对总人口数建立三次指数平滑法模型,对人均住房使用面积建立二次指数平滑法模型,预测出哈尔滨市未来五年总人口数和人均住房使用面积,将总人口数和人均住房使用面积的预测结果代入M-W优化后的预测模型,更加精准的预测出了哈尔滨市未来五年的住房需求量,并对此提出对策和建议。     

基于灰色系统理论GM（1,1）模型的林芝旅游市场规模预测

旅游业是西藏林芝市的支柱产业,对林芝旅游市场规模进行预测具有重要的意义。基于2009-2016年林芝市旅游接待人数数据资料,利用灰色系统理论GM（1,1）模型对林芝市十三五期间旅游市场规模进行预测,并对其进行了残差检验、关联度检验和后验差检验,检验结果显示建立的GM（1,1）模型具有较高的精度,可以进行实际预测。预测结果表明林芝未来几年旅游业市场规模将呈现持续稳定增长的趋势。