全球金融动荡下的中国股票市场及政策选择

中国股票市场自2007年10月以来的深度调整在全球金融动荡的背景下有加速之势.当欧美主要国家频频推出救市举措之际,要求中国政府进行救市的言论再次兴起.文章分析了中国股票市场持续下行的根源以及政府救市的困境.在全球金融市场动荡以及国内市场仍然高估的情况下,直接的救市措施并不可行,还可能产生严重的政策风险和经济风险,不利于中国股市的发展,救市不如救经济.     

Investment rates and the aggregate production function

In this paper we consider a simple version of the neoclassical growth model, and carry out an empirical analysis of the main determinants of aggregate investment across countries. The neoclassical growth model predicts that aggregate investment may be influenced by income growth, the capital income share, the relative price of capital, taxes, and other market distortions. We check these investment patterns for both OECD and non-OECD countries. We also decompose investment data into equipment and structures, and explore major factors affecting their relative prices. These empirical exercises shed light into the shape of the neoclassical production function.     

我国A股市场IPO抑价问题新进展

对我国A股市场上市公司IPO抑价与总差价之间的相关关系进行了一个实证分析,揭示了我国上市公司新股抑价与总差价之间的关系,得出了影响我国A股市场IPO抑价的主要因素;并通过建立多元回归模型,指出各主要因素对新股发行抑价具有显著性影响。     

股改对市场有效性影响的实证分析

以沪深300指数数据为样本,分别对股改前后中国证券市场的弱有效性与半强有效性进行实证检验。结果表明,股改之后中国股票市场有效性得到增强、但仍然不是半强有效市场。针对这一情况,提出了为"大非"的解禁工作做好制度性安排、推出卖空机制与平准基金、改变中国证券投资基金的排名机制等,以提高中国股票市场有效性的三点建议。     

Spatial changes in labour market inequality

We study spatial changes in labour market inequality for US states and MSAs using Census and American Community Survey data between 1980 and 2010. We report evidence of significant spatial variations in education employment shares and in the college wage premium for US states and MSAs, and show that the pattern of shifts through time has resulted in increased spatial inequality. Because relative supply of college versus high school educated workers has risen faster at the spatial level in places with higher initial supply levels, we also report a strong persistence and increased inequality of spatial relative demand. Bigger relative demand increases are observed in more technologically advanced states that have experienced faster increases in R&D and computer usage, and in states where union decline has been fastest. Finally, we show the increased concentration of more educated workers into particular spatial locations and rising spatial wage inequality are important features of labour market polarization, as they have resulted in faster employment growth in high skill occupations, but also in a higher demand for low wage workers in low skill occupations. Overall, our spatial analysis complements research findings from labour economics on wage inequality trends and from urban economics on agglomeration effects connected to education and technology.     

上市公司股权结构与现金股利的关系研究——基于股权分置改革前后的对比

文中拟解决的关键问题是分析中国上市公司在股权分置改革前后治理结构的变化及其与股利政策关系的变迁,考察股权分置改革的实施是否显著地削弱了大股东进行资金掏空的“隧道机制”,流通股比例的上升是否抑制了大股东的分红动机,前几大股东合谋进行利益输送的行为是否受到了制约,上市公司的股利分配行为是否更加合理。根据本研究课题的立意所在,文中采用了描述性统计与计量分析相结合的研究方法。经过实证的检验后发现,股权分置改革使得上市公司的分红派现行为更为理性,上述预期均得到一一印证。     

Insider Privatisation and Restructuring Incentives

In the literature on privatisation and restructuring it is a generally held belief that manager owned firms will be restructured more rigorously than worker owned companies. This gives the clear recommendation that property rights and control rights should be allocated to managers in the process of (insider-) privatisation. One of the implied arguments is, that managers' career concerns will make them eager to prove their ability by improving company efficiency. The present model shows that in the transition context managers' career concerns might result in the opposite effect. If the bulk of job opportunities are in worker controlled firms, the managers of the few manager controlled firms will want to appear soft on excess labour capacity – hence, restructure less harshly – in order to improve their career opportunities.     

SOE Reform under Oligopolistic Market Structure: The Optimal Choice of State Shares

This paper examines the effect of the change of state shares in a state-owned enterprise (SOE) on the efficiency of the whole society and the payoff of the government. This issue is addressed by setting up a mixed oligopolistic competition model and dividing the analysis into two cases: closed economy and open economy. The basic results are as follows: If the relative production efficiency of an SOE is too low, complete state ownership is not optimal, and privatization will be a necessary step; however, if the relative production efficiency of an SOE is not too low, complete privatization is not optimal both for the government and from the perspective of social welfare. The results can, to a certain extent, provide theoretical support to the governments idea on the SOE reform. Translated from Economic Research Journal, 2004, 1 (in Chinese)     

基于解决股权分置的非流通股定价研究

非流通股的价格如何确定是有效解决资本市场中股权分置问题的关键。由于两类股权分置,DDM及EVA法无法适用,净资产法偏离真实价值也很多。通过设计全市场流通的权证及竞价申购配售方案,使得配售价格和流通股股东的补偿都可以实现合理保障。竞价申购中的合理出价是一个复杂的事前无法确知的全体博弈问题,竞价结果及权证价值的形成遵循合理预期机制和套利机制。     

Inflation and the Income Share of the Rich: Evidence for 14 OECD Countries

This paper examines the distributional implications of inflation on top income shares in 14 advanced economies using data over the period 1920–2016. We use local projections to analyze how top income shares respond to an inflation shock, and panel regressions in which all variables are defined as 5-year averages to examine the impact of inflation on the position of the top-one-percent in the long run. Our findings suggest that inflation reduces the share of national income held by the top 1 percent. Furthermore, we find that inflation shocks and long-run inflation have similar effects on top income shares.