On the causes of the changes in income shares: Some reflections in the light the United States experience

The last 30 years have witnessed a dramatic change in the distribution of income, with the wage share falling in all major industrialized countries. Main-stream analyses, including New Keynesian ones, which retain the notion of factor substitution leading to a “factor intensity” inversely related to its rate of return, have encountered some difficulties in the interpretation of this change. Nonmainstream approaches present an advantage in the explanation of the phenomenon, consisting in the fact that they entail no a priori connections between the changes in distribution and the changes factor proportions. Hence if a change in institutions or in the bargaining strength of the parties affects distribution, income shares may vary significantly (i.e., changes in wages need not be accompanied by changes in labor to output ratio in the opposite direction as in mainstream analyses). Yet empirical observation may question also some of the analyses that have been advanced outside the mainstream. The article will explore the ways in which nonmainstream approaches have interpreted the described changes in distribution, and assess them from an analytical viewpoint and with reference to U.S. data. The purpose is that of pointing at some open questions and problems.     

基于市盈率修正的非上市公司国有股权定价模型研究

外资并购国有企业对我国国有企业改革和资本市场的发展具有重要的推动作用,合理确定国有股的转让价是外资并购中的核心问题,它将直接影响到外资并购的成功与否。基于市盈率修正的非上市公司国有股权定价模型,根据恰当的指标采用德尔菲法选取上市公司作为参照公司,将非流通股和流通股区别定价,采用加权法确定上市公司合理市盈率,解决了直接利用流通股市盈率估价非流通股存在的市盈率易被高估的问题,完善了传统的股权定价理论,对非上市公司国有股权定价具有很好的指导作用。     

Are loyalty shares an effective antidote against short‐termism? Empirical evidence from Italy

Corporate short‐termism is arguably one of the main causes of economic, social, and environmental unsustainability. This paper studies the effectiveness of loyalty shares—shares granting extra dividends or voting rights to shareholders holding them for a specified period of time—in limiting short‐termism. Although there are arguments both supporting (antidote view) and opposing (poison view) loyalty shares' effectiveness, empirical evidence on the theme is scant. By employing earnings management as a proxy for corporate short‐termism and by relying on a hand‐collected database of Italian firms, we find that loyalty shares can serve as an effective antidote against short‐termism. This study contributes to academic literature on corporate governance and accounting and informs the debate among policymakers on loyalty shares' effectiveness.     

Income shares,secular stagnation and the long-run distribution of wealth

Four alarming stylized facts have recently emerged in the United States: (a) a decline in the labor share of income; (b) a decline in labor productivity; (c) an increase in the top 1% wealth share and (d) an increase in the capital-income ratio. In Capital in the XXI Century, Thomas Piketty's argument is that the r > g inequality determines an increase in the capital-income ratio; if the elasticity of substitution in production is above one, the profit share rises. We provide a contrasting explanation that draws from the Post Keynesian approach to differential saving propensities between classes and the Classical-Marxian theory of induced technical change. In a simple model of “capitalists” and “workers,” we show that institutional changes that lower the labor share—declining unionization, increasing monopsony power in the labor market, the global ‘race to the bottom' in unit labor costs or the exhaustion of path-breaking scientific discoveries—can reduce labor productivity growth because of the lessened incentives to innovate to save on labor costs. A falling labor share reduces workers' total savings, and wealth concentrates in the capitalists' hands. A higher profit share and wealth share both put pressure on accumulation: but the long-run growth rate, which is anchored to labor productivity growth, has fallen. To restore balanced growth, the capital-income ratio must rise, independent of the elasticity of substitution. These tendencies are not inevitable: taxation can be used to implement any wealth distribution targeted by policymakers, while worker-crushing institutional arrangements can also in principle be reversed through policy. Neither change appears likely given the current institutional and global policy climate.     

The distribution of income between labor and capital is not stable: But why is that so and why does it matter?

I review the literature on labor's share of national income in developed and developing countries. These shares have varied systematically over the post-World War II period, rising until the late 1970s and then falling until now. Explanations for the decline in labor's share include technical progress, globalization and a decline in labor's bargaining power, but none of these explanations can account for both the rise and the decline of labor shares over time and for the similar pattern in developed and developing countries. However, movements in oil prices can account for these movements if energy is included in the production function. Such an explanation has broad implications for income distribution, energy conservation and for the modern theory of growth.     

Capital account liberalization and dynamic price discovery: evidence from Chinese cross-listed stocks

We analyse the effects of a recent financial reform (Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect) that enables cross-market investment between Hong Kong and Shanghai stock exchanges. Using a VECM, we find that the reform announcement considerably narrows the equilibrium level of price disparity and strengthens the price comovement of shares that are cross-listed in both markets. The estimated equilibrium relationship is in support of the relative law of one price. We find that both markets adjust in response to a disequilibrium in price disparity, leading to a sizeable error correction activity. The Shanghai market contributes to approximately two-thirds of the price discovery process. Competition and informativeness of trading affect the relative role of price discovery in each market. Finally, the reform implementation reinforces the long-run cointegration relationship and strengthens the short-run price comovements of cross-listed stocks despite the widening price disparity during the period.     

弥补上海社保资金缺口途径的研究——兼论地方国有股减持补充社保资金的可行性

上海巨额社保资金缺口是影响社会保障可持续发展的重大问题,对社保资金缺口形成的原因进行剖析,有助于就如何解决社保资金缺口的途径与办法提出建议,特别有助于就地方国有股减持补充市社保资金的可行性进行系统研究。     

企业盈亏、流通股规模与股票定价--来自中国证券市场的经验证据

我国亏损企业利润和净资产与股价的相关性不显著,模型的回归功效不到1％,远低于美国市场的45％,说明我国亏损 企业的股价吸收了较多的非会计信息。企业利润和净资产对股价的解释效力由高到低的顺序是:盈利的大企业>盈利的小企 业>亏损的大企业>亏损的小企业。     

上市公司盈余管理与利润操纵

目前,证券市场中相当多的上市公司的盈余管理和利润操纵行为。本文从盈余管理和利润操纵的概念、两者的关联、普遍性、操纵的手段、控制措施等方面进行了论述。     

上市公司可转换债券资本成本的实证研究

可转换债券是具有债券和期权性质的衍生金融工具。其在未转换为股票前,由于票面利率比较低,在不考虑转股失败的财务风险时,资本成本确实很低。当发生转换时,其资本成本就不能简单的用票面利率来衡量,还要考虑转换后的股权成本。本文建立了一组模型,并按一定标准选取了样本公司作为研究对象,最后进行了模型检验。结果表明,我国上市公司的可转债资本成本普遍偏高,其大小与发行后股票价格的波动、转股价格的设计等直接相关。