Global GDP shares in the 21st century — An equilibrium approach

Using a 9-region model of the world economy, we investigate the implications of the diffusion of total factor productivity (TFP) for global GDP shares during the 21st century. The nine regions are: Africa, Asia (excluding China, India and Japan), China, Europe, India, Japan, Latin America, North America and Oceania. According to our projections, TFP catch-up at a plausible rate implies that the share of the high-income regions will more than halve by 2050 and almost halve again in the subsequent 50 years. These projected shares are little affected by variations in demographic outcomes, saving behaviour and international capital flows, but are reduced substantially should TFP catch-up be slower.     

The interplay between home and host institutions on CBA ownership decision

Cross-border acquisitions (CBAs) are one of the key strategies for internationalization. However, most of what is known about CBA strategies relies on the effects of the host country's environment or the home country's conditions. In this article, we analyze the interplay between these two important factors. We show that companies from less institutionally developed countries are more influenced by poor institutional conditions found in host countries. We analyzed a dataset of 1,390 cross-border acquisitions performed by Latin American firms. The literature on the subject points out that less developed host environments lead to fewer shares of ownership acquired in CBAs. However, we confirmed that the quality of the home country's institutional environment positively moderates the effects of the host environment over ownership choice in the acquisition. This effect is due to companies from less developed environments being able to use their embedded capabilities to better navigate faulty institutional environments abroad.     

论股市政策与财政政策、货币政策的配合运用

经济决定股市,股市反作用于经济,股市泡沫加大经济泡沫,股市危机加深经济危机.宏观经济政策,既要包括财政政策和货币政策,也要包括股市政策.股市政策应成为与财政政策、货币政策并列的三大宏观经济政策之一.刺激经济,稳定股市,不仅要实行积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策,也要实行休养生息的股市政策,并配合运用.     

TRANSATLANTIC CAPITAL MARKET PRICE DISCOVERY DURING A FINANCIAL CRISIS

Previous results show relatively small amounts of time variation in the Hasbrouck (1995) information share across international markets. Using data from a security that was cross‐listed on the New York and London Stock Exchanges in the 1860s, we find that the information share changes dramatically during a financial crisis that began in the foreign market.     

Financial development and top income shares in OECD countries

We examine the causal impact of financial development (FD) on top income shares for a panel of 14 OECD countries—five Anglo‐Saxon countries, eight continental European countries, and Japan—over a 110‐year period. In our main General Method of Moments estimates, we find that a 1‐percentage‐point change in FD increases the top 1% income share by 0.2%. In distribution terms, a 1‐SD incr=ease in FD increases the top 1% income share by around 0.4 of an SD. The effects are robust to various measures of top income shares and FD and alternative estimation techniques, including nonparametric estimation. FD is typically viewed in positive terms in that it makes it easier to access credit and facilitates economic growth. Our results are important because they contribute to understanding of the potential negative effects of FD.     

What defines non-outstanding shares transfer premium in China？

We study the sample of 311 non-outstanding shares transfers from 2003 to 2004. The object of this study is to determine the extent to which premium can be explained by financial factors of firms. The intrinsic value of transferred shares with control right is different from the others. We find that the larger percent of share transferred, the higher premium will be paid. Current liability ratio interpreting the premium of non-outstanding shares transfers is negative related to short term debt. Price ratio can determine the premium level when the ratio of transfer share under 30 percent     

股权结构调整与国内银行业治理结构改革

合理的股权结构是有效的公司治理结构的基础。从契约理论的视角分析:在国有股一股独大的局面下,必然会导致控制权和剩余索取权的分离,在资本市场不发达及外部治理相对缺失的条件下,应采用日德治理结构模式,扩大外资银行在国内银行业的持股比率,同时让民营企业积极参与到银行业的改革中来,建立起真正的银行业现代公司治理结构。     

Glamour,value and anchoring on the changing P/E

The fact that value shares outperform glamour shares in the long term has been known for over 50 years. Why then do glamour shares remain popular? The price-earnings (P/E) ratio was the first statistic documented to discriminate between the two. Using data for all US stocks since 1983, we find that glamour shares have a much greater tendency to change P/E decile than value shares. We use TreeAge decision tree software, which has not been applied to problems in finance before, to show that glamour investors cannot rationally expect any windfall as their company's P/E decile changes, whatever their horizon. We infer that glamour investors anchor on the initially high P/E value, underestimate the likelihood of change and are continually surprised. We also seek theoretical justification for why value shares tend to outperform glamour shares. No convincing arguments based on the efficient market hypothesis have been put forward to show that the outperformance of value shares might be due to their being fundamentally riskier. Here, we apply equations from option theory to show that value shares can indeed be expected to outperform glamour shares.     

信息不对称、异质性交易与企业资本结构的决定

在将信息不对称划分为内部人和外部人之间以及知情交易者和非知情交易者之间的基础上,借鉴金融市场微观结构和财务学的相关理论成果测度这两类信息不对称,使用中国上市公司的数据,考察了这两类信息不对称与企业资本结构的关系。结果表明,两类信息不对称程度越高,杠杆水平越低;前者对杠杆的影响程度在小公司中更强,而后者对杠杆的作用效果在大公司中更强。此外,股权分置改革在某种程度上降低了前者的影响程度,而提升了后者的作用效果。这表明,我国资本市场的主要问题可能已由原先的内部人和外部人之间的利益冲突,转变为知情投资者和非知情投资者之间的利益冲突。     

Wealth,Capital and the Theory of Distribution: Some Implications for Piketty’s Analysis

Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century (2014) has been spectacularly successful. One reason for this is that while it often challenges received views and supports a non-apologetic interpretation of capitalism, at the same time it relies on mainstream economics. This theoretical framework, however, is not always conducive to consistency and interpretative accuracy. This paper points out some of the book’s analytical weaknesses and shows that some empirical evidence, a clearer distinction between wealth and capital, and a different theoretical perspective, could lead to questioning some of the book’s claims. In particular, it argues that the increase in the wealth-to-output ratio (but not the capital-to-output ratio) cannot explain the observed changes in income shares. It also contends that non-mainstream perspectives on income distribution and growth suggest that changes in income distribution are due more to policy and power relations than to the factors Piketty identifies.