2010年1季度国际金融市场运行综述

一季度,受美国经济复苏的步伐较为稳固及希腊主权债务问题令投资者的避险需求上升等因素影响,美元对其他主要货币走强。美元、英镑短期利率上升,欧元、日元短期利率下降。美国中长期国债收益率呈“W”型走势,英国和德国中长期国债收益率下降,而日本中长期国债收益率上升。主要股指探底回升。     

On the forecasting of the challenging world future scenarios

Logistic and power law methodologies for both retrospective and prospective analyses of extended time series describing evolutionary growth processes, in environments with finite resources, are confronted. While power laws may eventually apply only to the early stages of said growth process, the Allee logistic model seems applicable over the entire span of a long range process. On applying the Allee logistic model to both the world population and the world gross domestic product time series, from 1 to 2008 AD, a projection was obtained that along the next few decades the world should experience a new economic boom phase with the world GDP peaking around the year 2020 and proceeding from then on towards a saturation value of about 142 trillion international dollars, while the world population should reach 8.9 billion people by 2050. These results were then used to forecast the behavior of the supply and consumption of energy and food, two of the main commodities that drive the world system. Our findings suggest that unless the currently prevailing focus on economic growth is changed into that of sustainable prosperity, human society may run into a period of serious economical and social struggles with unpredictable political consequences.     

Does the Delphi process lead to increased accuracy in group-based judgmental forecasts or does it simply induce consensus amongst judgmental forecasters?

We investigate the relative impact of internal Delphi process factors - including panelists' degree of confidence, expertise, majority/minority positioning - and an external factor, richness of feedback - on opinion change and subsequent accuracy of judgmental forecasts. We found that panelists who had low confidence in their judgmental forecast and/or who were in a minority were more likely to change their opinion than those who were more confident and/or in a majority. The addition of rationales, or reasons, to the numeric feedback had little impact upon panelists' final forecasts, despite the quality of panelists' rationales being significantly positively correlated with accurate forecasts and thus of potential use to aid forecast improvement over Delphi rounds. Rather, the effect of rationales was similar to that of confidence: to pull panelists towards the majority opinion regardless of its correctness. We conclude that majority opinion is the strongest influence on panelists' opinion change in both the ‘standard’ Delphi, and Delphi-with-reasons. We make some suggestions for improved variants of the Delphi-with-reasons technique that should help reduce majority influence and thereby permit reasoned arguments to exert their proper pull on opinion change, resulting in forecast accuracy improvements over Delphi rounds.     

美元短期走势分析

目前美元仍是各国外汇储备持有的主要资产,美国的货币和资本市场是世界上最具广度和深度的成熟市场之一,在未来相当长的时期里,美元资产仍将是包括中国在内的各国政府和民间对外投资的主要组成部分。美元贬值与世界经济走势并非经济基本面因素所致,美元走弱还属于货币当局“可控制的贬值”。高油价及通货膨胀的困扰,次级债危机的冲击使本来就不明朗的美国经济前景更加暗淡,无论是从美国的国内经济还是国际经济的基本面来分析,美元短期贬值已是大势所趋,无可挽回了。     

基于灰色理论的中国人口空间分布模式预测

运用灰色理论对我国各个省市未来人口总量进行预测,并应用GIS的空间自相关理论和方法对未来人口空间分布模式做出预测。研究认为,从2005年到2020年中:北京、天津、江苏、上海、浙江等省市始终保持与周围省市人口密度的高高关联关系,围绕这些省市的省份区域形成了相对人口聚集区域,西部许多省份及东北几省与周围的省份人口密度是维持着低低关联模式。广东省始终保持与周围省市人口密度的高高关联关系,即本省只是单独形成了一个聚集点。2014年是我国人口空间分布格局变动较大的时期。     

基于Wilson模型的物流空间相互作用

从产生原理的角度、用修正的wilson模型刻画物流空间相互作用.根据该模型获得"作用强度"和"相互作用负荷"两个参数.作用强度的大小能够反映物流服务供给的合理与否;相互作用负荷增大的空间相互作用方向是进行物流设施建设的主要方位,由相互作用负荷的变化确定的物流设施的规划建设在空间方位上表现出交替性.     

高层剪力墙结构问题的探析

高层剪力墙结构形式和布局要适度合理,需要按照“强剪弱弯”、“强柱弱梁”的总体建筑理念设计。可采用三维杆系的薄壁柱空间分析方法或墙组元的分析方法进行计算,但对墙肢长的剪力墙,应该用空间杆的墙组元程序进行校验。异形柱结构是多肢的,其延性较差,由于截面的特殊性,其各项承载能力也有较大差异。高层剪力墙结构通过恰当的布局、设计,达到高层建筑荷载力量均衡的目标。     

债务期限结构与企业投资行为的实证研究

现行的债务期限结构与企业投资行为关系的研究通常认为,短期债务不会导致企业的过度投资行为。然而,以2007—2010年我国沪深股市的892家制造业上市公司为研究对象并利用面板数据模型进行计量分析显示:这一方面具有一定的合理性,另一方面也表明我国上市公司的过度投资行为至少有部分原因是由于债务期限偏短所导致的。