2012年5月国际金融市场运行综述

2012年5月,美元指数大幅上涨;欧元、英镑短期利率下降,美元、日元短期利率基本走平;主要发达国家中长期国债收益率总体振荡下行;全球主要股指振荡下行。     

Application of ANFIS to exchange rate forecasting

The need of exchange rate forecasting in order to preventing its disruptive movements has engrossed many policy-makers and economists for many years. The determinants of exchange rate have grown manifold making its behavior complex, nonlinear and volatile so that nonlinear models have better performance for its forecasting. In this study the accuracy of ANFIS as the nonlinear model and ARIMA as the linear models for forecasting 2, 4 and 8 days ahead of daily Iran Rial/∈ and Rial/US$ was compared. Using forecast evaluation criteria we found that nonlinear model outperforms linear model in all three horizons.     

企业扩张方式与企业短期成长速度关系的实证研究——以资源闲置作为调节变量

文章从知识视角探讨了企业扩张方式,即市场扩张和产品扩张如何与财务资源闲置、人力资源闲置共同影响企业短期成长速度。文章通过100家中国制造业上市公司的数据,对提出的一些假设进行了检验。结果表明,市场扩张方式没有单独对企业短期内的成长速度造成直接影响,产品扩张方式也没有单独对企业短期内的成长速度造成直接影响,并且企业的财务资源闲置对企业扩张方式与企业短期成长速度之间的关系具有调节作用,而人力资源闲置没有调节作用。     

热负荷偏差对供暖系统影响的分析

分析了设计热负荷偏大对室内供暖系统的影响,得出设计热负荷偏大对单管系统克服垂直热力失调是有利的结论;经分析设计热负荷偏大对管网及热源的影响,得出仅靠加大室内设计热负荷达不到良好供暖的结果,相反,加大室内设计热负荷会导致个别用户供暖效果更差。     

2010年7月国际金融市场运行综述

7月,欧洲主权债务危机引发的恐慌情绪逐渐减退,投资者风险偏好上升,同时,美国公布的多数经济数据表现不佳,显示美国经济复苏步伐放缓,美元对主要货币明显走低。美元短期利率下降,欧元、英镑短期利率上升,日元短期利率持平。美国、英国、日本中长期国债收益率下降,德国中长期国债收益率上升。各主要股指振荡上涨。     

大力推进新形势下的需求侧管理工作

在当前电力供需日趋紧张的形势下,电力企业为了保证电网的安全稳定运行,实现其向社会可靠供电的承诺,必须在政府的政策支持和引导下加快电源和电网建设的同时充分挖掘需求侧潜力,大力推进需求侧管理在中国的实践.笔者根据多年工作经验总结出在开展需求侧管理工作的过程中应注意的几个问题.     

A review of Delphi forecasting research in tourism

The Delphi technique is the most popular judgemental forecasting method in tourism studies, but theoretical and empirical developments in this area (especially for forecasting purposes) have been slow. This paper analyses published research on Delphi forecasting in tourism and hospitality, explores how the Delphi forecasting method has progressed over the past four decades in terms of topical areas, empirical applications, and issues of reliability and validity, and is thus expected to advance understanding of the Delphi technique, providing topical and methodological recommendations for researchers and industry practitioners for producing accurate forecasts. The literature concerning the qualitative and quantitative applications of Delphi forecasting in tourism is mainly divided into three research themes: event forecasting, forecasting tourism demand, and forecasting future trends/market conditions (the most popular application). Issues of accuracy, reliability, and validity, as well as a group of Delphi-specific characteristics, such as panel size, panel selection, consensus measures, and analysis of results, are summarized and discussed. This study also examines the accuracy of Delphi forecasts as well as exploring the role of the Delphi approach in integrating human judgement into quantitative forecasts.     

压路机碾压荷载在施工期对路基拼接变形影响的数值分析

以合肥铁路枢纽改造工程为研究对象,路基拼接中应用的不同压路机碾压荷载为研究目标,通过FLAC软件就不同路基高度下应用不同压路机荷载对既有线列车安全运营和路基稳定性的影响进行了数值模拟计算。结果表明,同一路基高度,不同压路机荷载作用下,坡脚A点和新、老路基搭接处B点的垂直变形增量随压路机荷载的增大而增大;相同压路机荷载下随着路基高度的增加,老路基面、坡脚点以及新老路基搭接处的垂直方向变形与路基高度不成线性关系,采用6 m高度的路基更为合理,有利于线路列车运行的安全性和路基整体的稳定性。