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41.
《International Journal of Forecasting》2014,30(2):344-356
This paper begins by presenting a simple model of the way in which experts estimate probabilities. The model is then used to construct a likelihood-based aggregation formula for combining multiple probability forecasts. The resulting aggregator has a simple analytical form that depends on a single, easily-interpretable parameter. This makes it computationally simple, attractive for further development, and robust against overfitting. Based on a large-scale dataset in which over 1300 experts tried to predict 69 geopolitical events, our aggregator is found to be superior to several widely-used aggregation algorithms. 相似文献
42.
结合武汉市二七长江大桥上跨铁路工程施工过程,采用模拟计算墩梁固结临时墩的受力,结合监控资料,得出其荷载的合理取值,并总结归纳墩梁固结的多种形式,分析优缺点,提出各种形式的适用范围。 相似文献
43.
《Food Policy》2015
In this article we specify a model of millet prices in the three West African countries of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. Using data obtained from USAID’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) we present a unique regional millet price forecasting model that takes advantage of the panel nature of our data and accounts for the distance of rural markets from capital cities. Another novel aspect of our analysis is our use of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to detect and control for variation in conditions for productivity. We find that including NDVI information significantly improves price forecasts. 相似文献
44.
《International Journal of Forecasting》2014,30(2):382-394
We describe and analyse the approach used by Team TinTin (Souhaib Ben Taieb and Rob J Hyndman) in the Load Forecasting track of the Kaggle Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012. The competition involved a hierarchical load forecasting problem for a US utility with 20 geographical zones. The data available consisted of the hourly loads for the 20 zones and hourly temperatures from 11 weather stations, for four and a half years. For each zone, the hourly electricity loads for nine different weeks needed to be predicted without having the locations of either the zones or stations. We used separate models for each hourly period, with component-wise gradient boosting for estimating each model using univariate penalised regression splines as base learners. The models allow for the electricity demand changing with the time-of-year, day-of-week, time-of-day, and on public holidays, with the main predictors being current and past temperatures, and past demand. Team TinTin ranked fifth out of 105 participating teams. 相似文献
45.
《International Journal of Forecasting》2020,36(2):480-488
We develop an algorithm that forecasts cascading events, by employing a Green’s function scheme on the basis of the self-exciting point process model. This method is applied to open data of 10 types of crimes happened in Chicago. It shows a good prediction accuracy superior to or comparable to the standard methods which are the expectation–maximization method and prospective hotspot maps method. We find a cascade influence of the crimes that has a long-time, logarithmic tail; this result is consistent with an earlier study on burglaries. This long-tail feature cannot be reproduced by the other standard methods. In addition, a merit of the Green’s function method is the low computational cost in the case of high density of events and/or large amount of the training data. 相似文献
46.
《International Journal of Forecasting》2020,36(4):1541-1562
Whether investor sentiment affects stock prices is an issue of long-standing interest for economists. We conduct a comprehensive study of the predictability of investor sentiment, which is measured directly by extracting expectations from online user-generated content (UGC) on the stock message board of Eastmoney.com in the Chinese stock market. We consider the influential factors in prediction, including the selections of different text classification algorithms, price forecasting models, time horizons, and information update schemes. Using comparisons of the long short-term memory (LSTM) model, logistic regression, support vector machine, and Naïve Bayes model, the results show that daily investor sentiment contains predictive information only for open prices, while the hourly sentiment has two hours of leading predictability for closing prices. Investors do update their expectations during trading hours. Moreover, our results reveal that advanced models, such as LSTM, can provide more predictive power with investor sentiment only if the inputs of a model contain predictive information. 相似文献
47.
48.
《International Journal of Forecasting》2022,38(4):1531-1545
Probabilistic forecasts are necessary for robust decisions in the face of uncertainty. The M5 Uncertainty competition required participating teams to forecast nine quantiles for unit sales of various products at various aggregation levels and for different time horizons. This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of the quantile forecasts at different aggregation levels and at different quantile levels. We contrast this with some theoretical predictions, and discuss potential implications and promising future research directions for the practice of probabilistic forecasting. 相似文献
49.
《International Journal of Forecasting》2019,35(2):502-520
Managing the distribution of fuel in theater requires Army fuel planners to forecast demand at the strategic level to ensure that fuel will be in the right place, at the right time, and in the amounts needed. This work presents a simulation approach to forecasting that accounts for the structure of the supply chain network when aggregating the demand of war fighters across the theater over the forecasting horizon. The resulting empirical distribution of demand at the theater entry point enables planners to identify forecast characteristics that impact their planning process, including the amplitudes and temporal positions of peaks in demand, and the estimated lead time to the point of use. Experimentation indicates that the forecasts are sensitive to the pattern of war fighter demand, the precise structure of the in-theater supply chain network, and the constraints and uncertainty present in the network, all of which are critical planning considerations. 相似文献
50.
《International Journal of Forecasting》2019,35(2):733-740
We propose new models for analyzing pairwise comparison data, such as that relating to sports. We focus on changes in players’ strengths and the prediction of future results. Our models are based on the Thurstone-Mosteller and Bradley–Terry models, and make use of the time variation in the parameters. Furthermore, we apply our models to data from the Japanese traditional sport sumo, and analyze this data. The proposed models perform better than the standard Thurstone-Mosteller and Bradley–Terry models according to both the Akaike information criterion and the Brier score. We compare the proposed models in detail by focusing on individual sumo wrestlers. 相似文献