A review of Delphi forecasting research in tourism

The Delphi technique is the most popular judgemental forecasting method in tourism studies, but theoretical and empirical developments in this area (especially for forecasting purposes) have been slow. This paper analyses published research on Delphi forecasting in tourism and hospitality, explores how the Delphi forecasting method has progressed over the past four decades in terms of topical areas, empirical applications, and issues of reliability and validity, and is thus expected to advance understanding of the Delphi technique, providing topical and methodological recommendations for researchers and industry practitioners for producing accurate forecasts. The literature concerning the qualitative and quantitative applications of Delphi forecasting in tourism is mainly divided into three research themes: event forecasting, forecasting tourism demand, and forecasting future trends/market conditions (the most popular application). Issues of accuracy, reliability, and validity, as well as a group of Delphi-specific characteristics, such as panel size, panel selection, consensus measures, and analysis of results, are summarized and discussed. This study also examines the accuracy of Delphi forecasts as well as exploring the role of the Delphi approach in integrating human judgement into quantitative forecasts.     

高层剪力墙结构问题的探析

高层剪力墙结构形式和布局要适度合理,需要按照“强剪弱弯”、“强柱弱梁”的总体建筑理念设计。可采用三维杆系的薄壁柱空间分析方法或墙组元的分析方法进行计算,但对墙肢长的剪力墙,应该用空间杆的墙组元程序进行校验。异形柱结构是多肢的,其延性较差,由于截面的特殊性,其各项承载能力也有较大差异。高层剪力墙结构通过恰当的布局、设计,达到高层建筑荷载力量均衡的目标。     

资本市场监管边界研究——来自短期融资券与公司债券市场发展对比的启示

政府对资本市场的监管一直是各界争论的焦点.实践证明,不同金融领域的监管政策是影响该领域发展的重要因素.2005年引进的短期融资券是发展最成功的金融产品之一,与有20年历史的企业债形成鲜明对比.通过比较,认为过去的政策和市场监管严重妨碍了公司债券市场多样性的发展,导致发行缓慢和流动性欠佳.针对这些不足,提出公司债券市场的监管边界--在保护供需双方多元化的基础上.提高发行效率、扩大投资者范围及完善交易平台.     

Quantile regression for the qualifying match of GEFCom2017 probabilistic load forecasting

We present a simple quantile regression-based forecasting method that was applied in the probabilistic load forecasting framework of the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2017 (GEFCom2017). The hourly load data are log transformed and split into a long-term trend component and a remainder term. The key forecasting element is the quantile regression approach for the remainder term, which takes into account both weekly and annual seasonalities, such as their interactions. Temperature information is used only for stabilizing the forecast of the long-term trend component. Information on public holidays is ignored. However, the forecasting method still placed second in the open data track and fourth in the definite data track, which is remarkable given the simplicity of the model. The method also outperforms the Vanilla benchmark consistently.     

Data preprocessing and quantile regression for probabilistic load forecasting in the GEFCom2017 final match

Team QUINKAN competed in the GEFCom2017 final match of hierarchical probabilistic load forecasting by adopting the quantile regression method using the R package quantreg. The weather stations were clustered into 11 groups, from which an optimal one was chosen for each load meter using the boosting method. The load meter records were cleaned and/or supplemented by various methods in order to secure robust quantile predictions. The variation in the regression formulas was kept as small as possible by introducing measures for suppressing prediction instability, although special formulas were employed for loading meters that were of an industrial nature. Several procedures were applied to help improve the accuracy, such as the smoothing of season transitions, coarse graining of the relative humidity, the use of load-oriented day-type definition, the averaging of weather data, and outlier removal.     

热负荷偏差对供暖系统影响的分析

分析了设计热负荷偏大对室内供暖系统的影响,得出设计热负荷偏大对单管系统克服垂直热力失调是有利的结论;经分析设计热负荷偏大对管网及热源的影响,得出仅靠加大室内设计热负荷达不到良好供暖的结果,相反,加大室内设计热负荷会导致个别用户供暖效果更差。     

备件消耗预测方法研究

准确的备件消耗预测是合理有效地进行备件保障各项工作的基础。文章研究了现有备件消耗预测方法,并将其分为三类:基于解析的方法、基于历史数据的方法和基于仿真的方法。对各类预测方法分别进行了详细的介绍,阐述了其适用条件和使用局限性,并对比分析了各方法的优缺点。最后指出了下一步的研究方向。     

不同经济发展阶段区域土地利用变化及对经济发展的影响——以重庆市40个区县为例

运用重庆市40区县1998—2008年社会经济数据和土地利用变更调查数据,根据经济发展阶段理论,将重庆市在空间上划分为工业化中期向后期过渡(Ⅰ)、工业化中期加速发展(Ⅱ)、工业化初期向中期过渡(Ⅲ)三大经济发展阶段区域,探讨各区域土地利用变化及对经济发展的影响。结果表明:①重庆市经济发展水平区域差异显著,随着时间的推移,经济要素逐渐扩散,多数区县进入Ⅱ区域,Ⅲ区域逐渐缩小至渝东边远地区;②工业化由Ⅲ阶段向Ⅱ阶段演变进程中,土地利用变化日趋强烈,当工业化进入Ⅰ阶段时,土地利用变化趋于缓和。土地产出率在Ⅱ阶段增长最快。区域土地产出率的演变规律与其土地利用变化相吻合,具有随工业化进程呈"倒U型"演变的特点。③承载性功能土地对经济发展的贡献高于生产性功能土地,且伴随经济的发展,贡献的差距逐渐拉大。研究认为,处于不同经济发展阶段的区域应采取不同的土地利用调控措施,使各类土地供给与区域所承载的经济要素相适应,以更好地满足区域的主体功能对土地供给的合理需求。     

Forecasting stock price volatility: New evidence from the GARCH-MIDAS model

This paper introduces a combination of asymmetry and extreme volatility effects in order to build superior extensions of the GARCH-MIDAS model for modeling and forecasting the stock volatility. Our in-sample results clearly verify that extreme shocks have a significant impact on the stock volatility and that the volatility can be influenced more by the asymmetry effect than by the extreme volatility effect in both the long and short term. Out-of-sample results with several robustness checks demonstrate that our proposed models can achieve better performances in forecasting the volatility. Furthermore, the improvement in predictive ability is attributed more strongly to the introduction of asymmetry and extreme volatility effects for the short-term volatility component.     

河北省宏观经济运行的长期均衡分析

运用协整理论和误差修正模型，估计了河北省宏观经济运行的长期均衡和短期波动关系。从长期看，河北省宏观经济系统存在协整关系，且这种关系对即期GDP具有促进作用．河北经济是投资驱动和出口拉动型的，消费不直接促进经济增长，而是通过协整关系间接促进经济增长。