利率效果区域异质性、收入跨区 影响与房价溢出效应*

本文首先构建了理论分析框架,解释了中国不同城市间房价溢出效应、收入对房价的跨区影响,以及利率调整对不同城市房价的区域异质性影响。本文利用GVAR模型对该框架进行了实证,结果显示北京等一线城市的房价波动对其他城市具有较大的溢出性,而中西部城市的房价溢出性则不明显。一线城市和东部城市的房价波动不仅受本城市人均收入变动的影响,还在很大程度上受其他城市收入变动的影响,而中西部城市的房价则主要受本城市收入变动的影响。利率变动对一线城市和东部城市的房价影响则较大,而对中西部城市的房价影响有限。本文结论具有明确的政策含义,比如政府应通过稳定一线城市房价以达到稳定全国房价的目的,促进公共产品均等化,实行地区差异化的房地产政策等。通过利率调整来调控房价也是一个可行的政策选项。     

西北内陆中心城市低收入人口居住空间及其社会效应——以兰州市为例

以兰州市各街道的低收入人口为研究对象,根据2013年6月进行的兰州市居民调查问卷和棚户区统计数据,借助Arc GIS10.0、SPSS平台,综合运用数理统计、反距离空间插值、主成分因子分析和聚类分析等方法,揭示兰州市低收入人口的属性特征、空间分布、聚居类型及社会效应。结果表明:在社会属性方面,低收入人口主要是低龄、低学历、下岗及退休、无职业且家庭结构较复杂人口;在空间分布方面,低收入人口"西高东低"分布不均衡,呈现"多中心"组团结构,"核心—边缘"特点明显;在聚居类型方面,可将其居住空间划分为原住型、流动型和移民型;在社会效应方面,带来空间分异、居住隔离、资源剥夺和公共安全等一系列社会问题,建议通过调整福利政策、倡导混合居住、拓宽就业渠道和加强规划引导等措施加以消解。     

The Distributional Incidence of Growth: A Social Welfare Approach

This paper provides a normative framework for the assessment of the distributional incidence of growth. By removing the anonymity axiom, such framework is able to evaluate the individual income changes over time and the reshuffling of individuals along the income distribution that are determined by the pattern of income growth. We adopt a rank dependent social welfare function expressed in terms of initial rank and individual income change and we obtain partial and complete dominance conditions over different growth paths. These dominance conditions account for the different components determining the overall impact of growth, that is the size of growth and its vertical and horizontal incidence. We then provide an empirical application for Italy: this analysis shows the distributional impact of the recent economic crisis suffered by the Italian populaltion.     

Explaining House Price Dynamics: Isolating the Role of Nonfundamentals

This paper examines the role of nonfundamentals‐based sentiment in house price dynamics, including the well‐documented volatility and persistence of house prices during booms and busts. To measure and isolate sentiment's effect, we employ survey‐based indicators that proxy for the sentiment of three major agents in housing markets: home buyers (demand side), home builders (supply side), and lenders (credit suppliers). After orthogonalizing each sentiment measure against a broad set of fundamental variables, we find strong and consistent evidence that the changing sentiment of all three sets of market participants predicts house price appreciation in subsequent quarters, above and beyond the impact of changes in lagged price changes, fundamentals, and market liquidity. More specifically, a one‐standard‐deviation shock to market sentiment is associated with a 32–57 basis point increase in real house price appreciation over the next two quarters. These price effects are large relative to the average real price appreciation of 71 basis points per quarter observed over the full sample period. Moreover, housing market sentiment and its effect on real house prices is highly persistent. The results also reveal that the dynamic relation between sentiment and house prices can create feedback effects that contribute to the persistence typically observed in house price movements during boom and bust cycles.     

Housing and the Macroeconomy: Inflation and the Financial Accelerator

Three themes connecting housing and the macroeconomy are discussed. First, evidence is presented for the property market as one of the drivers of U.S. consumer price inflation. Second, key drivers of house prices are explained to account for the remarkable diversity of international experience. Finally, three potential links between housing, credit, and the financial accelerator are discussed. These are the consumption channel, the investment channel, and feedback between bad loans and risk‐spreads via the financial system—and how institutional differences between countries can explain the presence, absence and magnitudes of these linkages.     

职业成长对员工建言行为的影响

基于员工利益视角,整合社会交换理论与关系人口学理论,并探索性地引入员工与主管前摄性人格匹配,可深入研究职业成长对员工建言行为的作用机理。运用多元线性回归分析多个组织的335份员工-主管配对样本数据,结果表明：职业成长对员工建言行为具有正向影响,员工对组织的责任感知在职业成长与建言行为间起到中介作用,员工-主管前摄性人格匹配不仅正向调节职业成长对建言行为的作用,而且正向调节责任感知对建言行为的作用。     

人口老龄化对积极财政政策有效性的影响——兼析延迟退休的宏观经济效应

人口老龄化不但影响到宏观经济的稳定,也会对财政政策的有效性产生影响。将人口老龄化引入动态随机一般均衡模型,分析人口老龄化对4种积极财政政策工具（扩大政府支出、提高劳动所得税起征点、提高劳动所得税累进性和增加公共投资）有效性产生的影响以及延迟退休的动态宏观经济效应,结果表明：人口老龄化扩大了政府支出和政府公共投资对消费产生的挤出效应,降低了4种积极财政政策工具对产出、消费、就业的促进效应,也强化了其对通胀和工资膨胀的提升效应;延迟退休未对私人消费产生挤出效应,有利于就业、产出和消费增长,并有助于稳定通胀和工资膨胀;与财政政策工具相比延迟退休引致的整体社会福利损失较小。人口老龄化降低了积极财政政策的有效性,基于稳定宏观经济和降低社会福利损失的考虑,延迟退休是一个较优的政策选择。     

河南艾滋病村驻村调查笔记

通过对艾滋病村和受艾滋病影响群体状况的直接观察和解释,揭示艾滋病疫情对当地社会经济发展、人民生活和社会稳定所造成的负面影响。政策建议:(1)为了避免更大的灾难,政府应当把遏止艾滋病作为“科学发展观”和“人口与发展战略”的一个组成部分,以便进一步动员各方面资源参与艾滋病的防治工作。(2)国家人口和计划生育系统应当全面介入国家的艾滋病预防。     

Corporate Social Responsibility: Exploring Stakeholder Relationships and Programme Reporting across Leading FTSE Companies

Although it is now widely recognised by business leaders that their companies need to accept a broader responsibility than short-term profits, recent research suggests that as corporate social responsibility (CSR) and social reporting become more widespread, there is little empirical evidence of the range of stakeholders addressed through their CSR programmes and how such programmes are reported. Through a CSR framework which was developed in an exploratory study, we explore the nature of stakeholder relationships reported across leading FTSE companies and the importance they attach to communicating both social and business outcomes. It is evident from the hypotheses tested that the bigger FTSE companies, particularly extraction companies and telecoms, are more adept at identifying and prioritising their stakeholders, and linking CSR programmes to business and social outcomes. However, we draw the general conclusion that building stronger stakeholder relationships through CSR programmes – other than with customers – is not currently a priority for most companies. We also conclude that a limited sophistication in managing multiple stakeholders may compromise the impact of CSR upon business and social results. Finally, the managerial implications and the contribution of our study are discussed before closing with an acknowledgement of the limitations of this work and suggestions for further research.     

中国百岁老人养老问题研究

利用"中国高龄老人健康长寿"课题1998年调查数据,对中国百岁老人老有所养、病有所医、老有所乐等养老问题进行了初步分析.研究表明,中国百岁老人基本上实现了老有所养、病有所医和老有所乐,家庭在百岁老人养老中占绝对主导地位,是百岁老人经济供养、病时生活照料和精神慰藉的主要承担者,社会所起作用甚微.百岁老人的经济自立状况、医疗需求满足程度及医疗照料资源的可获性因城乡、性别及居住方式而异,并直接影响到其对生活的评价.社会和政府应更多地关注独居百岁老人及靠社会救济的百岁老人.