我国经济结构动态变动后的下一步

经济的非平衡增长近年来在宏观经济的研究中广受关注。利用1952～2009年的样本数据,分析检验发现,我国经济具有非平衡增长的基本特征,这导致了我国经济结构的升级演进路径呈现出结构转变性质;在所选择的样本期内,农业对经济增长的拉动作用呈现出倒U型曲线的特征,而服务业对经济的贡献则表现出逐步增加的势头。另外,经验分析的结果表明,我国经济可能正经历长期的结构调整。因此,采取合适的措施使我国经济持续长久增长至关重要。     

产业结构调整的汇率驱动路径:价格穿越模型的解释

汇率作为宏观经济调节变量,在受到其它经济条件或经济因素影响的同时,其变动对国民经济也有着广泛而复杂的作用。通过对中国汇率制度历史演进的分析,可以发现人民币汇率的变动始终与中国产业结构的调整息息相关。文章以价格这一中间变量作为动力因素,建立价格穿越模型,分析汇率变动引起产业结构调整的传导路径与作用机理。     

从城市中社会调查的高拒访率看城市性

城市性的研究是社会学家们城市研究的重要方面。笔者试图以曾经参加的两个社会调查为例,通过城市和农村中调查对象对访员的接受程度的差异,特别是拒访率的不同,试图在对此现象因果解释的过程中,从一个侧面探讨城市性的几方面表现。     

加强对大学生的劳动教育刻不容缓

本文根据马克思主义关于教育的基本原理,阐述了加强大学生劳动教育对全面贯彻党的教育方针和促进人的协调发展的重要意义与巨大作用,并由此提出了如何做好这方面工作的措施和对策。     

Fundamental disagreement

We document a novel set of facts about disagreement among professional forecasters: (1) forecasters disagree at all horizons, including the long run; (2) the term structure of disagreement is downward sloping for real output growth, relatively flat for inflation, and upward sloping for the federal funds rate; (3) disagreement is time varying at all horizons. We propose a generalized model of imperfect information that can jointly explain these facts. We further use the term structure of disagreement to show that the monetary policy rule perceived by professional forecasters features a high degree of interest-rate smoothing and time variation in the intercept.     

政府规制与中国稀土产品出口增长的二元边际——对2001—2012年微观贸易数据的实证分析

采用HS?6位数级微观贸易数据,计算2001—2012年中国稀土产品出口增长的二元边际,并进一步分析相对出口规制程度、相对产量与出口增长二元边际之间的相互影响,结果表明：中国稀土产品出口规制政策对稀土产品出口增长的集约边际和扩展边际都有促进作用,其中对集约边际的影响更大;而相对产量对二元边际有负面影响。在中国经济新常态下,随着稀土产品出口规制政策的逐步弱化,应加强对稀土产业的生产规制,提高产品附加值,实现从规模速度型粗放增长向质量效率型集约增长的转变;并积极开拓新的出口市场,促进稀土产业的良性扩张。     

Social isolation and social anxiety as drivers of generation Z's willingness to share personal information on social media

Generation Z's (gen z) sharing of personal information on social media is a growing phenomenon with significant ramifications. Existing research, however, focuses on examining the role of social and/or psychological factors and fails to consider how and when social, psychological, and organizational factors affect gen z's willingness to share personal information on social media. To fill this gap, we propose a conceptual model based on the tenets of sociometer theory, to understand the dynamics of gen z's willingness to share personal information while considering its process and boundary conditions. Using a sequential multi-study design, we conducted an experiment followed by a survey to test our hypotheses using data collected from gen z in India. Our findings show that when gen z feels socially isolated/anxious, they are more likely to share personal information on social media. The effect of social isolation on sharing of personal information increases when gen z fear that they are missing out on the rewarding experiences others are having, are engaged in repetitive negative thoughts and perceive their firm's privacy policy as transparent and ethical. Our findings provide a better understanding of why, how, and when gen z's are willing to share personal information on social media. We extend existing limited research on the psychological aspects of digital natives' interaction with modern technologies. Our results equip social media marketing and brand managers with the knowledge they need to increase gen z's willingness to share personal information.