基于灰色系统模型的城乡建设用地规模预测——以常德市鼎城区为例

土地利用总体规划是区域性的综合规划,为地方性的经济发展提供科学和法律依据.建设用地的有效供给是地方经济发展基础,建设用地需求量预测是土地利用总体规划编制的核心,也是土地利用管理的依据.为了切实搞好常德市鼎城区的土地利用总体规划,使之更具有前瞻性、可操作性,必须切合实际地搞好建设用地需求规模和布局的预测.采用灰色系统模型,通过灰色关联度分析,建设用地发展与GDP、总人口、市镇人口、社会固定资产投资、人均GDP、第二产业产值、第三产业产值密切相关.基于这些因子,采用灰色系统模型法、建立GM(1,1)灰色模型,进行了2010年和2020年的城乡建设用地规模的预测.GM(1,1)模型可以进行长期预测,但预测仅反映一种趋势,综合考虑驱动因素的灰色线性组合模型更具有预测的可靠性.利用GM(1,1)模型和线性模型组合,进行城乡建设用地规模预测,可为土地利用总体规划提供可靠的保证.     

The Competitive Advantage of Collaboration – Throwing New Light on The Nordic Model

ABSTRACT

In one of the most influential contributions to modern political economy, Hall and Soskice have launched a distinction between ‘liberal’ and ‘coordinated’ market economies, placing the Nordic countries firmly in the latter category. We argue that, while the H&S distinction may serve classificatory purposes, seeing the Nordic model in terms of ‘coordinated capitalism’ blurs the distinctive features of the Nordic countries’ success as productive and fair economies. We contend that the central formula behind this success lies in what we call the Nordic model’s ambidexterity – the capacity to combine collaborative and competitive elements and skilfully navigate between them. Using an interdisciplinary perspective (inspired by organisation theory, cultural semiotics and evolutionary analysis), we provide a conceptual basis for reinterpreting the Nordic Model as an ambidextrous combination of culturally rooted, collaborative strategies that are subsequently competitively exposed. The article illustrates the workings of this ambidexterity in three societal domains: work life (including female participation), resource management – illustrated by the Norwegian petro-economy – and international business management and regulation with a focus on CSR. In each case we will show how collaboration is intertwined with pragmatic competitive exposure, yielding high productivity, high welfare, as well as fair income and wealth distribution.     

新型农村社会养老保险替代率精算模型及其实证分析

本文依据2009年国务院发布的《关于开展新型农村社会养老保险试点的指导意见》,运用保险精算的方法,构建出新农保替代率精算模型,并依据该模型对新农保替代率进行实证分析。通过分析提出以下建议:以农民人均纯收入作为缴费基数,实行比例费率制;鼓励农民尽早开始参保并保持长期缴费;鼓励参保农民选择较高的档次标准缴费;新农保个人账户基金应当在适当情况下进行市场化投资运营;继续强化土地保障和家庭保障的作用。     

Islamist terrorism and the status of women

We investigate the effect of Islamist terrorist activity on women's legal position in society, using data for 171 countries between 1970 and 2016. To identify causal effects, we exploit the prevalence of Islamist terrorism in neighboring countries as an exogenous source of variation, arguing that regional terrorism affects local terrorism through contagion effects. We show that increased activity by Islamist terrorist groups is linked to lower legal status of women. By contrast, we find that neither Islam per se nor other types of terrorism have comparable effects. This reinforces the notion that Islamist terrorism is singularly interested and effective in weakening women's rights. Our results are consistent with a rational-economic model of terrorism, where Islamist terrorists purposefully use violence to maximize political utility, while governments make concessions that constrain the role of women because the costs of compliance are lower than the harm from continued Islamist terrorism.     

封闭条件下财政政策效应及其制约因素的一般分析

自经济危机发生以来,世界各国纷纷采取以扩大内需为主旨的积极的财政政策。从目前来看,尽管其对提升信心。抑制经济的继续下滑起到了作用,但离我们的预期政策目标还有较大的距离。究其主要原因,我们认为,财政政策主要受经济制度的制约而未能有效地发挥其应有的效应。以西方宏观经济理论中封闭条件下三部门IS—LM模型为主要分析工具,从理论上分析了制约财政政策效应发挥的各个变量,并实践上对制约中国财政政策效应的因素进行了详细分析。     

税收政策与居民消费需求——基于结构效应视角的新思考

本文运用税收经济效应原理系统阐释所得税、商品税与财产税对居民消费需求的作用机制,在考察我国税制结构整体状况及其对居民消费需求负面影响的基础上,通过建立动态面板数据模型与采用GMM估计方法实证估计税收政策对居民消费需求的结构效应,结果发现：一方面,财产税挤入居民消费;另一方面,商品税和所得税均挤出居民消费需求,但开征利息税能够显著降低个人所得税对居民消费需求的抑制效应。基于理论分析与实证估计结果,本文认为,政府为了提高税收政策对居民消费需求调节的针对性与激励效果,应充分发挥税收政策的结构效应,积极推进与实行“有增有减”的新一轮税制改革,构建与扩大居民消费需求相协调的税制结构。     

Wealth effects and agency costs

We analyze how the agent's initial wealth affects the principal's expected profits in the standard principal–agent model with moral hazard.We show that if the principal prefers a poorer agent for all specifications of action sets, probability distributions, and disutility of effort, then the agent's utility of income must exhibit a coefficient of absolute prudence less than three times the coefficient of absolute risk aversion for all levels of income, thus strengthening the sufficiency result of Thiele and Wambach (1999). Also, we prove that there is no condition on the agent's utility of income alone that will make the principal prefer richer agents. Moreover, we show that, for an interesting class of problems, the principal prefers a relatively poorer agent if agent's wealth is sufficiently large. Finally, we discuss how alternative ways of modeling the agent's outside option affects the principal's preferences for agent's wealth.     

基于状态空间模型的我国物流业对经济增长的传导效应研究

建立状态空间模型来揭示物流业对经济增长传导效应,通过卡尔曼滤波算法估计时变参数,发现1978年以来我国物流业对经济增长的传导效应明显分为两个阶段,并在此基础上提出了物流产业转型期提高物流业对经济增长传导的正弹性效应、发展物流业的路径选择。     

物流业与三次产业发展的互动关系实证研究

以物流业和三次产业为研究对象,运用计量经济理论的模型和方法,对中国1978～2009年物流业与三个产业发展的协整与因果互动机制进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:从协整检验和误差修正模型看,中国物流业与三次产业之间呈现出比较稳定的长期均衡发展趋势,短期波动也起着正的影响作用;从格兰杰因果关系检验看,中国物流业与第一产业和第二产业有单向的因果关系,与第三产业有双向因果关系。     

中国农村劳动力转移问题探析

农村劳动力转移对于"新农村建设"具有重要现实意义,但不受限制、无序的人口向城市流动也会带来许多城市问题和社会问题.当前我国农村劳动力转移面临许多问题,而转变劳动力转移观念,创造各种有利条件,实现农村劳动力就地转移也许更能促使城乡协调发展.