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61.
The nature and magnitude of the economic shocks that have affected the per capita GDP of 16 OECD countries are analyzed over a long period using the outlier method. Strong proof of infrequent large permanent and transitory shocks were found, essentially resulting from the two major wars in the twentieth century, the recession in the 1920s, the Great Depression, among others. We also examine the nature of the output trend by combining different tests of non-stationarity on different GDP series corrected by the outliers detected. It is shown that the per capita GDP series cannot reject the unit root hypothesis in 13 of the 16 countries examined. No conclusion could be drawn for the other countries because the test results were contradictory. 相似文献
62.
Determinants of Current Account Imbalances in 16 OECD Countries: An Out-Of-Sample Perspective 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
We employ panel data as well as country-specific models to uncover empirically the determinants of current account imbalances.
We find evidence of slope heterogeneity likely rendering the fixed-effect estimator inconsistent. Mean group estimation is
followed to overcome the latter difficulty. Both estimation techniques are evaluated by means of in- and out-of-sample criteria.
The mean group estimator outperforms the fixed-effect approach and, moreover, only three economic variables are found to impact
on the current account balance significantly. These are the government budget balance, the domestic output gap and the changes
of the terms of trade. We finally propose a parsimonious dynamic model of the current account, including only these variables
and illustrate that it has similar predictive accuracy as country-specific benchmark models.
JEL no. F32, C23, C53 相似文献
63.
There are two variance components embedded in the returns constructed using high frequency asset prices: the time-varying variance of the unobservable efficient returns that would prevail in a frictionless economy and the variance of the equally unobservable microstructure noise. Using sample moments of high frequency return data recorded at different frequencies, we provide a simple and robust technique to identify both variance components. 相似文献
64.
Mike Adams 《International Journal of the Economics of Business》1996,3(2):213-226
Using 1988–93 panel data drawn from the New Zealand life insurance industry, this paper examines empirically the notion that the choice of distribution system is an efficient contracting solution to incentive conflicts between owners, managers and sales agents in life insurance firms. Consistent with what was hypothesised, the empirical results suggest that choice of distribution system is distinguished by organisational form, firm size, and sales commission. However, contrary to expectations, the variables representing product diversity and asset specificity were found not to be statistically significant. The empirical results thus lend mixed support for prior predictions. 相似文献
65.
Tina Hviid Rydberg 《Finance and Stochastics》1997,1(3):251-257
Simple sufficient conditions for the existence of a unique equivalent martingale measure are provided. Furthermore, these
conditions give us a handle on situations where an equivalent martingale measure cannot exist. The existence of a unique equivalent
martingale measure is of relevance to problems in mathematical finance. Two examples of models for which the question of existence
was unresolved are studied. By means of our results existence of a unique equivalent measure up to an explosion time is proved. 相似文献
66.
William R. Dillon Ulf Böckenholt Melinda Smith de Borrero Ham Bozdogan Wayne de Sarbo Sunil Gupta Wagner Kamakura Ajith Kumar Benkatram Ramaswamy Michael Zenor 《Marketing Letters》1994,5(4):323-334
Our paper provides a brief review and summary of issues and advances in the use of latent structure and other finite mixture models in the analysis of choice data. Focus is directed to three primary areas: (1) estimation and computational issues, (2) specification and interpretation issues, and (3) future research issues. We comment on what latent structure models have promised, what has been, to date, delivered, and what we should look forward to in the future. 相似文献
67.
This paper uses the binary choice model to identify the factors that are significantly influencing the household purchase decisions of seafood products for home consumption in Auckland, New Zealand. It is found that ‘quality’ and ‘cooking easiness’ are the main product attributes that significantly influence households’ choices of seafood in Auckland. Also, the representative household has shown a strong preference for fresh and other alternative seafood products, including processed, smoked and canned, over frozen products. Retail outlets are found to be more attractive to the household purchasing seafood for home consumption. The New Zealand seafood industry may find this baseline study useful as a guide to developing future research structure on the domestic market. 相似文献
68.
通信信号的识别与解调是通信侦察的重要研究内容,在通常情况下,通信信号的很多参数并不知道。本文介绍了一种基于通信信号码延迟自相关特性的码速率测量技术,并给出了码速率测量理论分析及基于硬件的实现技术,仿真和实验结果表明本方案具有较高的测量性能。 相似文献
69.
Calhoun Charles A. Deng Yongheng 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2002,24(1-2):9-33
This paper provides a side-by-side comparison of loan-level statistical models for fixed- and adjustable-rate mortgages. Multinomial logit models for quarterly conditional probabilities of default and prepayment are estimated. We find that the estimated impacts of embedded option values for prepayment and default are generally quite similar across both FRM and ARM loans, providing additional empirical support for the basic predictions of the options theory. We also find that differences in estimates of conditional probabilities of prepayment and default associated with mortgage age, origination period, original LTV, and relative loan size, indicate the continued significance of these other economic and demographic factors for empirical models of mortgage terminations. 相似文献
70.