The trickle-down effect: how elite sporting success affects amateur participation in German football

The trickle-down effect assumes that sporting success at the elite sport level descends down to the amateur sport level in the sense that people are inspired by sporting success to participate themselves. Previous research failed to find convincing evidence for this relationship, mostly because the data used and the methods applied (e.g. cross-sectional data, primary data, correlations) were not adequate. This study addresses these shortcomings and examines the effect of national sporting success on amateur sport participation in German football using longitudinal data from 1950 to 2014. Since an individual’s decision to participate in sport also depends on other factors, the regression models also control for working hours, real wages etc. The results show that only World Cup title wins of the men’s national team have a positive and statistically significant impact on the number of and percentage changes in individual club memberships, clubs and teams. The coefficients of European Championship titles and title wins of the women’s national team turn out to be mostly insignificant. Future research should examine the reasons as to why only title wins by the men’s team have a measurable inspirational effect on amateur sport participation in football.     

A longitudinal study of the effects of life status changes on changes in consumer preferences

Marketers and consumer researchers have maintained a long-standing interest in understanding continuities and changes in consumer preferences. The present research attempts to provide explanations for stability and changes in consumption patterns by presenting a theoretical framework according to which the results of previous studies may be recast and further research advanced. The authors develop hypotheses and test them with retrospective and longitudinal data, using alternate measures of key variables. The authors suggest implications of the study findings for marketers and theory development, and they provide directions for future research.     

论突发事件对中小投资者交易行为的影响

在风云变幻的投资市场环境下,风险被突发事件引爆、传播和放大的过程具有自我驱动、自我增强和自我加速的特性,会造成一系列的严重后果。对突发事件产生的原因、事态发展和对中小投资者交易行为产生的影响进行分析,结合金融、法律、心理等多方面知识,旨在提高中小投资者的操作技巧和获利能力,维护市场稳定发展和培养成熟投资者。     

The Threat Effect of Active Labour Market Programmes*

In this paper, we estimate the threat effect of active labour market programmes (ALMPs) for a sample of unemployed men in Denmark. Threat effects of such programmes capture the impacts of a system of ALMPs prior to actual participation. Rational economic agents make search decisions based on the expected discounted value of unemployment, and the perceived risk of future participation in programmes may affect job‐search behaviour early in the unemployment spell. We find a strong and significant threat effect, which is shown to reduce average unemployment duration by two and a half weeks.     

新冠肺炎疫情对中国保险业的影响研究——基于非典的复盘与长短期影响分析

本文基于张响贤等(2003)的非典分析框架,复盘2020年新冠肺炎疫情对中国保险业的影响,并且基于长短期的视角,从收入端、赔付端和投资端三个维度关注短期内疫情对保险业的影响,从商业逻辑、发展模式、产品创新和保险科技的四个角度关注长期影响。研究发现,新冠肺炎与非典疫情均给保险业带来正负面影响,但非典时间的负面影响在新冠肺炎时期被部分正面影响所中和;疫情短期内对保险业造成部分负面的冲击,但是整体冲击有限;新冠肺炎疫情将给保险业带来深远的影响,助推保险转型、信息化运用和"大国家大保险"等发展模式。     

Some evidence on Ross' resolution irrelevancy hypothesis

This research attempts to discriminate empirically between the predictable events and resolution irrelevancy hypotheses as both pertain to abnormal stock price performance around regular and special proxy statement mailing dates and the related shareholder meeting dates. We find no evidence that these events result in the positive wealth effects suggested by the predictable events hypothesis. We do find evidence of increased idiosyncratic stock price volatility or information flow around special meeting proxy statement mailing dates and special meeting dates. Thus, our evidence supports the resolution irrelevancy hypothesis.     

索赔管理中的索赔事件与费用关系的矩阵分析

在项目管理中，承包商对索赔的管理是提升其经济利益的有力手段。索赔管理的第一步就是要对发生的索赔事件进行分析。通过分别建立索赔事件、索赔费用与索赔原因的模糊关系矩阵，井进一步进行关系合成分析，从而找出各个索赔事件的关键费用分项，为提出准确详实的索赔报告作出前提准备。     

Why economic dynamics matter in assessing climate change damages: Illustration on extreme events

Extreme events are one of the main channels through which climate and socioeconomic systems interact, and it is likely that climate change will modify the probability distribution of the losses they generate. The long-term growth models used in climate change assessments, however, cannot capture the effects of such short-term shocks. To investigate this issue, a non-equilibrium dynamic model (NEDyM) is used to assess the macroeconomic consequences of extreme events. This exercise allowed us to define the economic amplification ratio, as the ratio of the overall production loss due to an event to its direct costs. This ratio could be used to improve the cost-benefit analysis of prevention measures. We found also that, unlike a Solow-like model, NEDyM exhibits a bifurcation in GDP losses: for each value of the capacity to fund reconstruction, GDP losses remain moderate if the intensity and frequency of extremes remain under a threshold value, beyond which GDP losses increase sharply. This bifurcation may partly explain why some poor countries that experience repeated natural disasters cannot develop. Applied to the specific issue of climate change, this model highlights the importance of short-term constraints in the assessment of long-term damages, and shows that changes in the distribution of extremes may entail significant GDP losses in absence of specific adaptation. It suggests, therefore, that to avoid inaccurately low assessments of damages, researchers must take into account the distribution of extremes instead of their average cost and make explicit assumptions on the organization of future economies.     

UK money demand 1873–2001: a long-run time series analysis and event study

This paper performs a multivariate cointegration analysis of UK money demand 1873–2001, and illustrates how a long-run time series analysis may be conducted on a data set characterized by turbulent episodes and institutional changes. We suggest accounting for the effects of the two world wars by estimating additive data corrections, thereby allowing the propagation of war-time shocks to be fundamentally different from the transmission of peace-time innovations. In addition, the corrected series may be used in counterfactual event studies to assess the impacts of special events. In the empirical analysis we find a single equilibrium relationship relating velocity to opportunity costs, and we identify a significant link between excess money and inflation. After accounting for the turbulent periods, the equilibrium structure is reasonably stable over a period of 130 years. The empirical analysis was carried out using the OxMetrics software, see Doornik (2002). Ox procedures to estimate the vector equilibrium correction model with additive corrections are available from the author upon request.     

论强调事项段审计报告类型

本文从理论和实践两个方面分析强调事项段审计报告类型的演变过程及依据，分析归纳新出台的中国注册会计师执业规范体系中可以出具强调事项段审计报告类型的重大事项，探讨出具强调事项段审计报告的类型。