Overreaction to extreme market events and investor sentiment

This article investigates the role of investor psychology, captured here by investor sentiment index, in driving individual stock price reactions to extreme movements in the broader market. In addition to confirming prior evidence of overreaction, we find much stronger overreaction when investor sentiment is low rather than high. This is consistent with the role of the contrast dimension of an uncommon event, suggested in the psychology literature, over and above the emotion of surprise it brings about. In a low sentiment environment, the contrast is sharper and hence leads to stronger overreaction.     

Healthcare costs associated with skeletal-related events in breast cancer patients with bone metastases

Background:

Patients with bone metastases secondary to breast cancer are pre-disposed to skeletal-related events (SREs), including spinal cord compression (SCC), pathologic fracture (PF), surgery to bone (SB), and radiotherapy to bone (RT).

Objective:

To document current patterns of healthcare utilization and costs of SREs in patients with breast cancer and bone metastases.

Methods:

This was a retrospective, observational study using the Thomson MedStat MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters database from 9/2002 to 6/2011. Study subjects included all persons with claims for breast cancer and for bone metastases, and ≥1 claims for an SRE. Unique SRE episodes were identified based on a gap of at least 90 days without an SRE claim, and classified by treatment setting (inpatient or outpatient) and SRE type (SCC, PF, SB, or RT).

Results:

Of 17,266 patients with breast cancer and bone metastases, 9142 (53%) had one or more SRE episodes. Among 5809 patients who met all other criteria, there were 7617 SRE episodes over mean (SD) follow-up of 17.2 (15.2) months. The percentage of episodes that required inpatient treatment ranged from 11% (RT) to 76% (SB). On average, inpatient SCC episodes (n?=?83 episodes) were most costly; while outpatient PF episodes (n?=?552 episodes) were least costly. Of the total SRE costs (mean [SE] $21,072 [$36,462]/episode), 36% were attributable to outpatient RT (n?=?5265 episodes) and 31% to inpatient PF (n?=?838 episodes).

Limitations:

The administrative claims data used in this study may lack sensitivity and specificity for identification of clinical events and may not be generalizable to other populations. Also, for some SRE episode categories, the number of events was small and cost estimates may lack precision.

Conclusion:

In patients with breast cancer and bone metastases, SREs are associated with high costs and hospitalizations.     

Environmental Statistics: Current and Future

Since 1900, statistics has prospered and established for itself a central place in science and technology, as can be seen from the wide application of its methods to almost all facets of life. The primary concern of statistics is to develop a logical and efficient system for information acquisition and analysis that is geared towards broad applications. Such a system has its roots and extensions in case studies from many scientific disciplines and in the collaboration between statisticians and other scientists. During the past three decades statisticians have become actively involved in the development and use of quantitative methods to understand and solve environmental problems. These activities are commonly called Environmetrics. In this paper we review the main features of current Environmetrics research and outreach activities. The paper is structured around typical examples drawn mainly from water quality and climate change to illustrate the type of problems involved, the statistical approaches used to address them, and the new statistical methods required for their solution. In addition we shall also briefly describe efforts made at the international level to link the statisticians working in the field together and with environmental scientists.     

云南边疆民族地区群体性事件诱因状况调查研究

为了准确了解云南边疆民族地区群体性事件状况,云南农业大学"云南民族地区群体性事件对社会稳定的影响及对策研究"课题组继2009年10月至2010年7月对云南边疆部分民族地区群体性事件进行了调研。基于调查访谈的内容,本文首先对云南边疆民族地区群体性事件进行描述,然后对其诱发因素进行分析。结果表明:利益受损、民族矛盾、宗教渗透、干群关系恶化是云南边疆民族地区群体性事件诱发的主要原因。     

数字化核电厂紧急事件的人因可靠性分析

本文以核电厂为背景,针对紧急事件将认知模型分为五个阶段:监视与激发、信息收集、任务定义及状态分析、决策与任务执行,并对每一认知阶段详细分析了失误因素,失误原因及绩效形成因子。其次,对核电厂紧急事件提出了定量化分析步骤和方法。最后,本文以核电厂给水失水紧急情况人因事件为例进行详细操作规程分析,并对该事件的每一失误阶段进行定量化计算。     

论泉州体育用品业的国际化拓展之路

本文从泉州体育用品的发展历程、产业技术、产业结构、市场等方面分析其产业现状,深刻认识泉州体育用品业存在的发展瓶颈,从而更全面地掌握泉州体育用品业的发展动态,提出泉州体育用品业的市场营销策略。     

建立和完善重大群体性事件源头化解机制的对策——我国社区构建心理疏导机构的可行性

重大群体性突发事件已经成为当前影响社会稳定的重要因素的关键指标,建立和完善应对处置重大群体性突发事件的有效机制,是确保社会稳定有序、构建和谐社会的根本。本文提出在社区建立心理疏导机构的构想,是从源头上化解重大群体性突发事件的有效途径。     

我国商业体育赛事的经营风险及其规避措施探讨

本文从界定商业体育赛事以及商业体育赛事经营风险的概念出发,分析了我国商业体育赛事经营风险产生的原因及种类,在此基础上从风险控制和风险转嫁的角度提出了商业体育赛事经营风险的规避措施。     

基于EM-plant的离散事件物流系统建模与仿真

介绍了离散系统仿真方法,以万州集装箱码头为例,阐述了EM-plant在建模与仿真中的运用。仿真结果说明,该方法可克服传统设计方法周期长、信息化程度低的缺点。     

Anticipating special events in Emergency Department forecasting

Accurate daily forecast of Emergency Department (ED) attendance helps roster planners in allocating available resources more effectively and potentially influences staffing. Since special events affect human behaviours, they may increase or decrease the demand for ED services. Therefore, it is crucial to model their impact and use them to forecast future attendance to improve roster planning and avoid reactive strategies. In this paper, we propose, for the first time, a forecasting model to generate both point and probabilistic daily forecast of ED attendance. We model the impact of special events on ED attendance by considering real-life ED data. We benchmark the accuracy of our model against three time-series techniques and a regression model that does not consider special events. We show that the proposed model outperforms its benchmarks across all horizons for both point and probabilistic forecasts. Results also show that our model is more robust with an increasing forecasting horizon. Moreover, we provide evidence on how different types of special events may increase or decrease ED attendance. Our model can easily be adapted for use not only by EDs but also by other health services. It could also be generalised to include more types of special events.