高职院校学生公寓突发、常发事件案例分析

学生公寓是学生聚居的场所,是学校安全事件防范的中心,每个高校都对学生公寓突发事件处理制定了详尽的预案,制止恶性事件发生,有效确保了学校的安全工作。     

News or Noise? Using Twitter to Identify and Understand Company‐specific News Flow

This study presents a methodology for identifying a broad range of real‐world news events based on microblogging messages. Applying computational linguistics to a unique dataset of more than 400,000 S&P 500 stock‐related Twitter messages, we distinguish between good and bad news and demonstrate that the returns prior to good news events are more pronounced than for bad news events. We show that the stock market impact of news events differs substantially across different categories.     

产业聚集:一个动态过程

利用1984~2003年中国制造业的数据分析了制造业聚集的动态过程,使用Dumais、Ellison、Glaeser的方法,将产业聚集变化分解为区域就业平均复归和随机性共同作用的结果。结果发现,中国制造业聚集的净变化增长很快,但产业受到较强的地理移动性的支配,聚集变动并非只与历史偶然事件和过去的聚集水平有关。     

对铁路站车群体性事件处置战术的研究

由于铁路在国民经济发展中所处的特殊位置，它往往成为群体性事件的聚焦点，闹事群体采取冲击铁路、拦车断道、聚众上访等方式，向路地党政有关部门乃至中央施压的群体性事件呈逐年上升趋势。研究探索有铁路公安特色的铁路站车群体性事件处置新战术、新方法、新预案，运用处置战术，对于预防和处置铁路站车群体性事件、打造平安铁路站车具有十分重要的现实意义。     

175 years of adaptation: North Scandinavian Sámi reindeer herding between government policies and winter climate variability (1835–2010)

Unmanaged wild reindeer populations tend to follow cyclical behaviour, and domesticated reindeer populations often show cyclical behaviour, too. In this contribution, we intend to use the long-term development of two areas in northern Scandinavia to explore how externally imposed policies and winter climate variability have influenced the reindeer herd size and pasture state. We do this by comparing the development in two areas that are rather similar ecologically: Torneträsk in northernmost Sweden and Kautokeino (Vest-Finnmark) in northernmost Norway.Climatic and ecological studies as well as commons theory have been useful tools for understanding the inherent socio-ecological dynamics. Especially the time from 1850 to 1940 includes several short periods when historical sources document combinations of events such as (1) closure of national borders to cross-border herding migrations, (2) relocations of herder households, (3) overutilization of lichen pastures, (4) catastrophic winters, and (5) forced herd reductions. The high number of incidents and actions during this era makes it challenging to disentangle causes and effects.Our main findings are based on the documented effects of international events and consequent government policies and actions in Fennoscandia from 1852 to 1921 which had dramatic consequences, including excessive numbers of reindeer and people in northernmost Sweden, leading to more or less forced relocation southwards in Sweden with cascading effects in large parts of Sápmi. We have found clear indications that this contributed to overutilization of lichen pastures and beyond any reasonable doubt must also have reinforced the effects of several of the documented catastrophic climatic events, especially in areas like Torneträsk to where many families from Finnmark were relocated. From the first border closure in 1852 to the Second World War it thus seems as if the shocks from the political events were the main factor determining the development of reindeer herding in large parts of Sápmi. The political and administrative history is well documented. Our climate data are a unique compilation of climate events based on multiple sources during two centuries, which contribute to the validity of our findings. Our pasture state data from the late-1800s are also based on several sources which support each other.Two new factors influencing the general cyclical pattern have arisen more recently. Motorization has increased the possibilities for intense pasture utilization and the amplitudes between minimum and maximum herd sizes, while supplementary feeding has the potential to limit the effects of winter climate variability and lichen overutilization.     

GARCH models,tail indexes and error distributions: An empirical investigation

We perform a large simulation study to examine the extent to which various generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models capture extreme events in stock market returns. We estimate Hill's tail indexes for individual S&P 500 stock market returns and compare these to the tail indexes produced by simulating GARCH models. Our results suggest that actual and simulated values differ greatly for GARCH models with normal conditional distributions, which underestimate the tail risk. By contrast, the GARCH models with Student's t conditional distributions capture the tail shape more accurately, with GARCH and GJR-GARCH being the top performers.     

负面情感事件对一线服务人员情绪、满意及承诺的影响——以高交互服务行业为例

高交互性是服务行业的重要特征之一,服务过程中,服务人员会与顾客高频率接触,并通过与顾客的互动传递服务价值.在服务传递过程中通常会伴随出现一些情感事件,多为服务失败等负面情感事件,影响服务人员的情绪和满意.该研究在文献回顾的基础上,构建了高交互服务行业中情感事件对一线服务员情绪影响的模型,并以餐饮业为例对模型进行了实证检验,最终证实:管理者关怀导向和雇员的事件归因会对员工负面情绪产生影响,并最终影响其内部补救后的满意和情感承诺；同时,服务人员的情绪智力差异对模型起到调节作用.最后,文章阐述了研究结论与不足和下一步的研究方向.     

我国本土体育用品企业知识产权战略研究

本文采用文献资料、逻辑分析等方法,从我国本土体育用品企业制定和实施知识产权战略的意义和知识产权战略的具体内容两个方面进行了研究,旨在为我国本土体育用品企业的发展提供一些借鉴。     

Evaluation of long-dated assets: The role of parameter uncertainty

Under expected utility, the uncertainty that affects the parameters of the random walk of consumption growth has no effect on the value of short-term claims and makes the term structure of risk-free rates decreasing. The term structure of aggregate risk premia is increasing when the uncertain cumulants of log consumption are independent. We apply these generic results to the case of an uncertain probability of catastrophes, and to the case of an uncertain trend or volatility of growth. Adding some persistence to unobservable shocks into our benchmark model, we show that the term structure of risk premia is hump-shaped.     

Are actual weather and perceived weather the same? Understanding perceptions of local weather and their effects on risk perceptions of global warming

I use one nationally representative sample from CBS News/New York Times Poll on Environment (2007), supplemented with monthly temperature and precipitation data from the United States Historical Climatology Network and extreme weather events data from National Climatic Data Center, to examine how different weather measures and individuals’ socio-demographic background, political predisposition, and beliefs about global warming affect the perception of local weather. Beliefs about global warming are found to play a dominant role in determining the perception of local weather. Specifically, people who view that global warming is causing an immediate impact, is serious, and needs to be a priority are much more likely to perceive a strange pattern of weather in the recent past. This finding conforms to motivated reasoning which refers to the tendency to interpret evidence to confirm the preexisting beliefs and predisposition. Among all the weather measures, the total number of extreme weather events in the past three years appears to be the only significant indicator of perceived weather. Specifically, individuals who have experienced more extreme weather events in their home counties are more likely than those elsewhere to perceive the weather is stranger than usual. I further examine how actual weather and perceived weather together affect perceptions of global warming. The results illustrate that the perception of local weather has stronger explanatory power than actual weather. People who perceive the strange weather patterns are much more likely than others to see the immediate impacts and priority of global warming. Future studies are needed to investigate the dynamic relationship between perceptions of global warming and perceptions of weather and climate. In addition, more studies are needed to further examine how the public forms their opinions toward various specific types of the local weather and climate.