我国社会主义新农村建设目标实施与管理研究——以韩国新村运动为例

文章从管理学理论中的目标管理角度,对韩国新村运动的启动、执行、结果反馈等一系列实施细节进行分析。认为我国新农村建设可以采用目标管理的方式,通过明确政府与农民之间的分工以及各自完成相关具体子任务,最终能够实现“生产发展、生活宽裕、乡风文明、村容整洁、管理民主”的发展目标。     

Hedonic prices indexes for new passenger cars in Portugal (1997–2001)

This paper evaluates the effects of quality change on the price index for new passenger cars in Portugal for the years 1997–2001. Hedonic regression models are studied, giving particular emphasis to the relation between the form of the price index and the econometric techniques used for inference. The results of the empirical part of the paper indicate that during this period the changes in the quality of new cars sold in Portugal are responsible for price increases averaging 4.8% per year. Because this quality change was not entirely taken into account, in recent years the CPI component corresponding to the sales of new passenger cars may have been overestimated by as much as 2.2 percentage points per year. This corresponds to an overestimation of the overall CPI by about 0.15 percentage points per year.     

2SLS and OLS in a spatial autoregressive model with equal spatial weights

The paper considers a Cliff–Ord type spatial model with a spatially lagged dependent variable and a row normalized weighting matrix with equal weights. We show that the 2SLS and OLS estimators are inconsistent unless panel data are available. The weighting matrix in question is one which would naturally be considered if all units are neighbors to each other, and there is no other reasonable or observable measure of distance between them.     

体系与效果的辨证——民国时期江宁实验县乡村合作运动运作效果考析

为了改善农村金融、复兴农村经济,江宁实验县引入了合作运动,并为此建立了一套比较完备的合作体系,成为合作运动的运行基础,然而体系完备并不意味着就能达到它的预设目标,主观预设和客观效果之间必然存在一定的差异,因为这场运动所能达到的实际效果不仅取决于运动推广者的主观努力,也受制于当时客观的时代环境。作为一场经济运动,江宁的乡村合作运动在客观上还是取得了一定的社会经济效果,但从总体上来看,其效果又是有限的,乡村社会经济并未因此而发生太大的结构性变动。     

An assessment of value creation in mobile service delivery and the moderating role of time consciousness

This study focuses on the perceived utilitarian value of a new service delivery mode, the mobile channel. The authors develop a framework that incorporates three mode-specific benefits - time convenience, user control, and service compatibility - as well as two costs - perceived risk and cognitive effort - as antecedents of perceived value. Because of the pervasiveness of time criticality as a value-added characteristic of the mobile channel, they also investigate the moderating influence of consumers’ time consciousness. They empirically investigate the model using mobile brokerage services as an illustrative application. The results reveal that the identified antecedents, with the exception of service compatibility, have a strong impact on mobile channel value perceptions, which in turn influence behavioral intentions. The authors also find that time consciousness moderates the aforementioned relationships.     

Local measured telephone service in the USA: A quantitative analysis

The USA has steadfastly held to a flat rate for local telephone service, whereas most other countries are characterized by a user-sensitive (measured service) system of pricing. Economic theory suggests some method of measured service pricing more accurately reflects the true costs of local service. This article seeks to determine how many US consumers could be induced to switch to measured service pricing, and using ordinary least squares, derives a model of the demand for measured service. The factors are identified that will induce the US population to move towards a measured service rate structure. The findings indicate that consumers are quite responsive to both relative price (between a local flat rate and a measured service rate) and advertising.     

On the selection of forecasting models

It is standard in applied work to select forecasting models by ranking candidate models by their prediction mean squared error (PMSE) in simulated out-of-sample (SOOS) forecasts. Alternatively, forecast models may be selected using information criteria (IC). We compare the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of these methods in terms of their ability to mimimize the true out-of-sample PMSE, allowing for possible misspecification of the forecast models under consideration. We show that under suitable conditions the IC method will be consistent for the best approximating model among the candidate models. In contrast, under standard assumptions the SOOS method, whether based on recursive or rolling regressions, will select overparameterized models with positive probability, resulting in excessive finite-sample PMSEs.     

Systematic risk estimation in the presence of large and many outliers

It is well recognized that the effect of extreme points on systematic risk estimates is not adequately captured through least squares estimation. This article uses the reweighted least median squares (RWLMS) approach, first proposed by Rousseeuw (1984), which accurately detects outlier presence. Using a large sample of 1350 NYSE/AMEX firms, the article demonstrates that least squares does indeed mask several potentially influential points, that this masking is very pervasive over the sample, and that it may persist even after conventional robust estimation techniques are applied. When these masked points are “unmasked” by RWLMS and zero weights assigned to such observations, the resulting RWLMS estimates of beta are on average 10%–15% smaller. However, a Bayesian treatment of such points (assigning a priori nonzero weights) is possible in both one and two factor market models.     

Polytomous logistic regression

In this paper a review will be given of some methods available for modelling relationships between categorical response variables and explanatory variables. These methods are all classed under the name polytomous logistic regression (PLR). Models for PLR will be presented and compared; model parameters will be tested and estimated by weighted least squares and by likelihood. Usually, software is needed for computation, and available statistical software is reported.
An industrial problem is solved to some extent as an example to illustrate the use of PLR. The paper is concluded by a discussion on the various PLR-methods and some topics that need a further study are mentioned.